Group 1: Market Overview - The uncertainty in China-US trade relations has increased, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices globally, with silver up 7.33% and gold up 6.51% during the week[6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.02%, while the US dollar index fell by 0.27% to 98.6, remaining below 100[9] - The ChiNext, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech have shown significant gains this year but experienced some adjustments this week due to increased trade uncertainties[6] Group 2: Capital Flows - Domestic capital saw a significant inflow into the Chinese stock market, with a total of $133.02 billion inflowing over the past week[3] - Overseas active funds saw an inflow of $1.76 billion, while passive funds saw $1.22 billion inflow during the same period[3] - The US equity market attracted over $130 billion in inflows, particularly in technology, healthcare, and financial sectors[3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The A-share equity risk premium (ERP) has risen significantly, with the PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index recovering to over 50%[3] - The PE ratio percentiles for the S&P 500 and CAC 40 are at 92.9% and 91.1%, respectively, indicating high valuations compared to historical levels[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 42nd to the 44th percentile, while the risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 decreased from the 76th to the 69th percentile[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - US manufacturing PMI and industrial output index showed marginal improvement, while non-manufacturing PMI and inflation expectations weakened slightly[3] - China's September CPI, core CPI, and PPI showed signs of recovery, with significant improvements in year-on-year import and export growth rates[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is at 99%, slightly up from 98.3% the previous week[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].

Export Performance - In September 2025, China's exports reached $328.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, exceeding the expected 5.7%[2] - The export growth rate increased by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, driven by strong demand from non-US economies and a low base effect from last year[3] - Major contributors to export growth included high-tech products and machinery, with high-tech product exports growing by 11.5%[15] Import Trends - Imports in September 2025 totaled $238.12 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, significantly higher than the expected 1.4%[2] - The increase in imports was supported by domestic demand recovery and easing trade uncertainties with the US[17] - High-end manufacturing products, such as integrated circuits and large aircraft, saw substantial import growth rates of 14.1% and 201.3%, respectively[17] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for September 2025 was $90.45 billion, down from $102.33 billion in the previous month[2] - The decline in trade surplus reflects the stronger growth in imports compared to exports, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[2] Regional Trade Dynamics - In September 2025, the share of exports to Africa and Latin America reached record highs, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.4% and 15.2%, respectively[6] - The combined export share to the US, EU, and ASEAN decreased to 41.4%, while the share to emerging markets increased, highlighting the effectiveness of trade diversification strategies[6] Future Outlook - Continued support for exports is expected from non-US economies, with ongoing recovery in consumer demand and manufacturing activity in regions like the EU and Africa[21] - Potential "export rush" may occur in October due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and the upcoming holiday season[21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) futures, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade affects market sentiment and US soybean export prospects, and the weak fundamentals of domestic soybean meal remain unchanged. The futures price is more affected by market sentiment, with funds shifting positions, reduced price fluctuations, and a growing short - term wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - For the palm oil (P) futures, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile. After the trade agreement between the US and the EU, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by oil price fluctuations and will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that Sino - US trade uncertainty impacts market sentiment and US soybean exports, and domestic fundamentals are weak, with price fluctuations reduced due to fund position - shifting [5][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by its bio - diesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is strongly volatile. The core logic is that after the US - EU trade agreement, international oil prices rebounded, and palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term and medium - term, the price movement is affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade continues to affect market sentiment, influencing the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the price of US soybean futures will remain volatile. The weak reality of the domestic soybean meal fundamentals remains unchanged, and its futures price is more affected by market sentiment. With some funds leaving the market, the price has dropped significantly from its high and will run weakly in a volatile manner before market sentiment recovers [5]. - The overall decline in international oil prices has a continuous spill - over effect on the oil and fat market, suppressing the bio - energy demand prospects of the oil and fat sector. As palm oil has the strongest bio - energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, it is greatly affected by the fluctuations of international oil prices, and the risk of high - level fluctuations in palm oil futures prices increases in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade uncertainty affects US soybean export prospects, and domestic soybean meal fundamentals are weak. Market sentiment and capital flow influence the futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices suppresses the bio - energy demand of the oil and fat sector. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by international oil price fluctuations, increasing short - term high - level volatility risks [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Soybean Oil**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Palm Oil**: Three red stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Soybean Meal**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Corn**: White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, recommending to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: One red star, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - **Eggs**: One red star, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as weather, policies, trade, and supply - demand relationships. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance, and long - term thinking for vegetable oils is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans maintain a rebound trend. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas in the future week. Policy - related bidding procurement had zero transactions today. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in North China rose by 40 yuan per ton today. The oil mill's operating rate remains high, and soybean meal inventory continues to increase. The demand - side提货量 is also at a high level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to possible Sino - US trade news tonight and the August 1st tariff node. The price trend of soybean meal mainly depends on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both domestic oil and meal prices are rising, with meal stronger than oil. There is a risk of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the southern US soybean - producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days. The palm oil main contract continues to strengthen. In the long - term, the development of biodiesel can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying vegetable oils on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal had a significant increase today due to changes in economic and trade expectations. Canada's plan to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products has raised concerns about Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Although there is growth potential in Sino - Australian rapeseed trade, there are uncertainties in direct rapeseed imports. It is expected that the trend of rapeseed product inventory reduction will continue, and short - term prices may rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn oscillated sideways today. The increased auction sales by CGS have affected market expectations. There will be a US - imported corn auction tomorrow, with a quantity of about 300,000 tons. US corn is growing well, and Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig 19 contract strengthened after hitting a new low during the day and closed slightly higher. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply is accelerating. In the first half of the year, pork production increased by 1.3%. At the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In the first half of the year, the number of live pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, an increase of 0.6%. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging at high prices and pay attention to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased with increasing positions, mainly in off - season contracts such as October and November. Due to high production capacity and insufficient culling, off - season contracts are under pressure, while the peak - season contract 09 is still relatively supported. The spot price rose today, and the seasonal demand peak is approaching. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Overall Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures will continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply is ample with high imports and high mill operation rates, but there are uncertainties from the strengthening Brazilian soybean premium and Sino - US trade relations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons with an operation rate of 67.02%. Soybean inventory was 6.3799 million tons, up 383,900 tons (6.40%) from last week. Soybean meal inventory was 508,900 tons, up 98,900 tons (24.12%) from last week. With high imports and high operation rates, supply is abundant, but there are uncertainties from Brazilian premiums and Sino - US trade. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 3120 in the short - term, and range trading was recommended [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract may continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation, with an expected trading range of 2880 - 3080 [11]. 1.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is in a high - level oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals boost mill crushing, while weak summer consumption and falling crude oil prices due to the easing Middle - East situation suppress prices. However, there are uncertainties from US biodiesel policies and the key growth period of US soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 453,000 tons, up 23,800 tons from last week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 886,300 tons, up 39,300 tons from last week. High soybean arrivals, weak summer consumption, and falling crude oil prices suppress prices, but there are uncertainties from US policies and US soybean growth. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [31]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel overall, with bullish funds. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price was expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel overall, with slightly bullish funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an expected trading range of 7800 - 8100 [35]. 2.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, and weekly port inventory. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★★★ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★★★ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★★★ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, corn, and livestock, considering factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy. Different products face various market situations, and the report provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][7] Summary by Category 1. Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The domestic soybean main contract rebounded significantly. The tension in the Middle East and potential weather risks in the US may affect prices. Weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations during the growing season [2] - **Imported Soybeans**: There are risks of high temperature and low precipitation in the US soybean - growing months of July - August. With the tightened supply - demand balance of US soybeans, attention should be paid to weather - related price rebounds [2][6] 2. Soybean & Bean Meal - The USDA June soybean report was neutral. Dalian bean meal has been volatile recently. Although domestic soybean supply is increasing, the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has risen, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] 3. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal had small fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices rose. The USDA's adjustment to rapeseed supply - demand data had little impact. The prices of Canadian rapeseed and domestic rapeseed products are expected to have short - term upward space [4] 4. Corn - The USDA June report was neutral - positive for US new - season corn. Corn futures have been volatile. The price was affected by the wheat - corn substitution and future price differentials between them [7] 5. Livestock - **Pigs**: The hog futures rebounded, and the spot price was stable. In the short term, the spot price has downward pressure, while in the medium term, policy support may boost the far - end price [8] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after a large - scale reduction in positions. The spot price continued to decline, and attention should be paid to potential demand increases when prices are low [9] 6. Vegetable Oils - **Palm Oil**: The price rose significantly but showed a trend of rising and then falling. The USDA report was neutral. The price is expected to be range - bound, with risks of suppression by US soybean weather speculation [6] - **Soybean Oil**: No specific independent analysis in the report, considered together with soybeans and related to the overall soybean market situation [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, trade policies, and inventory levels. Different products have different trends, with some expected to be range - bound, others to decline in the short - term, and some to be affected by potential weather - driven price fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category [Soybean (Domestic and Imported)] - Domestic soybeans are oscillating at a low level. A domestic soybean bidding and procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be monitored. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth. Imported soybeans will have sufficient supply due to a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China. The mid - term price of US soybeans will be affected by weather and is expected to be oscillating upward. Domestic soybeans are also entering the planting and growing season, and weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations [2]. [Soybean and Soybean Meal] - Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating flat with insufficient upward momentum. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been falling significantly since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. With more international soybeans arriving, the supply is becoming more abundant. Oil mills are maintaining a high operating rate, and soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. In the short - term, a bearish view is maintained, and the market lacks continuous driving force. Investors should pay attention to the potential upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3]. [Soybean Oil and Palm Oil] - The market focus is on the potential easing of agricultural policies between China and Canada. Soybean oil and palm oil are mainly reducing positions and falling passively following rapeseed oil. The increase in the oil - meal ratio has slowed down. The short - term weather in the US is generally favorable for soybean crops. In the mid - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and domestic oil - meal futures are expected to fluctuate with US soybean prices. Domestic soybean spot will face the pressure of a large amount of arrivals, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4]. [Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil] - Rapeseed - related futures are generally falling today. The main contract of rapeseed oil is increasing positions and falling. The focus is on the market's expectation of the easing of Sino - Canadian rapeseed - related trade relations. The key for domestic rapeseed products lies in the marginal change of trade policies. If the Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will become more abundant. Due to seasonal differences in demand, rapeseed oil may face more significant pressure. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the US - Canada rapeseed oil biodiesel policy and new - crop area weather, and its price center is expected to rise slowly. In general, domestic rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure [6]. [Corn] - Corn futures are rebounding with position reduction following the overall commodity market. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is generally stable. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. With the new wheat harvest, the price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - priced corn areas are gradually substituting. The overall demand is weak, the receiving capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. After the transfer of domestic grain ownership, the market's circulating grain sources are still concentrated in the trading sector. With the listing of new wheat, more corn will be put into the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious about going long, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly [7]. [Pork] - Pork futures are oscillating weakly. The spot price of pork is generally falling across the country. As the number of newborn piglets continues to recover, the overall supply of pork will increase in the future. Group pig - raising enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for sale, and the future sales rhythm is expected to accelerate, further increasing the supply pressure. In the short - term, the spot price still has room to fall. In the mid - term, the policy aims to stabilize pork prices, and measures such as reducing pig weight, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing sow production capacity will reduce the long - term supply pressure. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce pig weight [8]. [Eggs] - The main contract of egg futures has reached a new low today, and the near - month contract is performing weakly. The plum - rain season is having a negative impact on the near - month contract, while the spot price of eggs is stable today. The inventory of laying hens in production continued to increase in May, and the chicks replenished earlier are still in the production - capacity release stage. The egg - laying chicken farming industry has entered the loss zone, and the number of old hens being culled has increased. However, there is no panic - selling situation yet. In June, the plum - rain season will start in the South, and the seasonal off - peak demand period is coming. At the same time, due to the large - scale chick replenishment in the past, the production capacity is still being released. It is expected that the egg price still has a risk of further decline. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, weather factors, and feed prices [9].