据该超市工作人员介绍，超市内最便宜的猪肉原价8.99元/斤，消费者购满5斤以上可享受7元/斤的优惠价。"7元/斤都是批发价了。" "今年还没买过这么便宜的猪肉呢！"21日下午，一位正在北京市通州区某连锁超市内选购猪肉的消费者说。 最近，猪肉持续降价的消息引发关注。今年的猪肉为何这么便宜？还会再降吗？ 肉价连降十周 21日下午，中新经纬在前述超市内看到，五花肉15.9元/斤，后腿肉13.9元/斤，梅花肉16.9元/斤，里脊肉19.9元/斤，另有多款猪肉产品在打折促销。 21日下午，北京市通州区某连锁超市内售卖的猪肉 中新经纬 闫淑鑫摄 "下午人少，你要买的话，我按五折的价格卖你。"当中新经纬以消费者身份咨询猪肉价格时，一位正在销售黑猪肉产品的工作人员称。其中，原价49.9元/ 斤的黑猪肉，折后价29.9元/斤；原价29.9元/斤的黑猪肉馅，折后价15.9元/斤。 前述超市工作人员介绍，最近猪肉持续降价，以上述折后7元/斤的猪肉为例，两天前的优惠价是8元/斤。"7元/斤是今年以来的最低价了。" 在批发端，猪肉价格也持续下降。据农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测，自进入8月份，猪肉批发均价已连降十周（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of live hog futures and spot have dropped significantly, with the spot price falling from 15.26 yuan/kg in early July to around 11.3 yuan/kg, a cumulative decline of 26%, and the futures price dropping from a previous high of 14,745 yuan/ton to 11,320 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 23%. The decline in hog prices has led to some de - capacity effects, but the far - month futures mainly follow the spot and near - month prices downwards [3]. - The continuous decline in live hog prices is due to the concentrated release of hog production capacity, increased overall supply, and limited demand support, resulting in an obvious supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the supply pressure remains, and the rebound space of spot prices is limited. The far - month support may also be limited [4]. - Although the current decline in live hog prices is relatively large, there are differences in the impact on near - term and far - term prices, and the upward driving force is relatively limited [30]. Summary by Directory Preface Summary - The prices of live hog futures and spot have continued to decline rapidly recently, and the far - month futures mainly follow the spot and near - month prices downwards [3]. Fundamental Situation 1. Limited Release of Previous Production Capacity, Limited Price Decline - The market was generally pessimistic about the live hog price this year due to high previous production capacity data. However, before the recent decline, the live hog spot price mainly fluctuated, with the price center at 14 - 15 yuan/kg. This was because the previous production capacity was not fully released. In the first quarter, the slaughter volume decreased by 2.23% year - on - year, and the price was flat year - on - year; in the second quarter, the slaughter volume increased by 0.62% year - on - year, and the price decreased by 10.67% year - on - year [8]. - The slow release of previous production capacity was affected by factors such as the rapid increase in hog slaughter weight due to farmers' pen - holding, more secondary fattening, and the relatively large proportion of large - scale enterprises' slaughter, which supported prices [9]. 2. Accumulation of Supply Surplus Pressure, Obvious Increase in Slaughter Volume - Although the third - quarter slaughter data has not been released, the year - on - year price decline of about 30% indicates a significant increase in actual slaughter volume. The increase in recent slaughter volume is due to the increase in secondary fattening slaughter, the active weight reduction in the market since May, and the reduction in the year - on - year decline of small - scale farmers' slaughter since August [12]. 3. Slaughter Pressure Still to Be Reflected, Prices to Run Weakly - The slaughter volume of various groups is increasing. The slaughter plan of large - scale enterprises this year has increased by 22.72% year - on - year, and it is expected that their subsequent slaughter volume will remain relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers may also increase. The secondary fattening inventory is still relatively high, and the overall enthusiasm for slaughter is expected to remain high [15][16]. - The demand for live hogs has declined, with high slaughter volume, increasing frozen product inventory, a significant decline in the fresh sales rate, and limited demand support for prices [25]. 4. Gradual Initiation of Capacity Reduction, Medium - and Long - Term Price Support - As of the week ending September 30, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 212 yuan/head, lower than the market cost, and the purchase of piglets for fattening was also in a loss state. The market's capacity reduction has become more obvious, with an increase in the number of culled sows [26]. - In the short term, reducing the slaughter weight and volume may help stabilize prices, but the improvement space is limited. In the medium and long term, the overall hog production capacity is still relatively high, and the current piglet price provides some support, while the futures price is under pressure [26][30]. Comprehensive Analysis & Strategy Evaluation 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In the short term, the live hog market may still face pressure. The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the overall supply will remain at a relatively high level. The stabilization of spot prices is mainly affected by slaughter weight and motivation. A further decline in slaughter weight may drive a phased rebound in prices, but medium - and long - term price changes are still affected by production capacity [31]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Do not easily short - sell on the falling market. Instead, short - sell on rebounds and wait for a significant decline in slaughter weight. Do not easily determine the bottom for far - month contracts, as capacity changes have a significant impact [5][32]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy for LH15 [5][35]. - Options: Sell call options on near - month contracts at high prices [5][35].