1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to adjust weakly and fluctuate. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and it is difficult for pig prices to continue to rise significantly. If the negative cycle of "price decline → increased enthusiasm for slaughter → price decline" occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One may consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time (for reference only, not investment advice) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the decline in spot prices, futures prices have dropped this week [2]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts have adjusted weakly [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: With weak spot prices, the inter - monthly spread shows a reverse spread trend, especially the 11 - 01 contract [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Prices and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume has increased steadily, while pig prices have declined [14]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [16]. - **Fat - to - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - to - standard price difference has adjusted strongly and fluctuated. If it continues to strengthen, it may enhance the willingness of small - scale farmers to increase the weight of pigs [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Difference**: As pig prices decline, terminal consumption is expected to increase [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - to - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - to - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat has weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products is lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Farming Profits**: All pig farming has fallen into losses [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight has decreased slightly this week, and the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased [26]. Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of August, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Different data sources show different trends in the inventory of reproductive sows [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows has been running weakly. In September, the slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month, and the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction has increased [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall increase in the volume of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets has been running weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows has been running steadily but weakly [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profits**: The slaughter volume has continued to increase month - on - month. In August, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 33.5 million, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%. Regarding frozen products, attention should be paid to whether there will be inventory actions after the decline in pig prices [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply in the market is relatively loose in August as the slaughter plan of the breeding segment increases month - on - month. However, some farms may be willing to hold prices as the price drops, and the widening price difference between fat and lean pigs provides conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered, with the slaughterhouse operating rate rising moderately. It is expected that the demand will improve with the start of school in late August and the subsequent Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. Overall, the pressure on slaughter in August is high, and the weak adjustment of the spot price has dragged down the main contract of live pigs. But due to policy guidance, the long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease marginally, and the expected improvement in demand due to the start of school limits the decline space of live pig futures prices, with the market mainly in a volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 67,934 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,259 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,897 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 821 lots [2]. Spot Price - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 13,600 yuan/ton, 13,400 yuan/ton, and 14,900 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with a month - on - month increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads. The year - on - year CPI is 0%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,391.37 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.55 yuan/ton; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 911.33, with a decrease of 6.6. The monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,756,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 157.05 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.91 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 28.85 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28 yuan/head. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 2100,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 470.76 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 12.94 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On August 19, 2025, according to the sample data of key breeding enterprises of Shanghai Ganglian, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 258,700 heads, a 5.68% decrease from the previous day. The live pig 2511 contract closed up 0.18% on Tuesday [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the supply decreases as farmers hold back on sales and reduce the average weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month. However, there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter due to the increasing sow production capacity. - On the demand side, high temperatures dampen consumers' willingness to buy pork, leading to slower sales at the retail level and a decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate. - Overall, the short - term supply reduction and the entry of second - fattening buyers boost the near - term hog prices. The main 2509 contract has risen by over 3%, reaching a two - month high. The practice of holding back pigs and second - fattening causes supply delays, resulting in a pattern where near - term prices are strong and long - term prices are weak. [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for hogs is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, a decrease of 375 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures traders is - 7,608 lots, an increase of 1,304 lots. - The hog basis is 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of hogs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 15,200 yuan/ton, 14,800 yuan/ton, and 17,100 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 400 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 41,7310 thousand heads, a decrease of 1,0120 thousand heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420 thousand heads, an increase of 40 thousand heads. - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged from the previous value. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of corn is 2,436.67 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 949.31, down 7.35. - The monthly feed production is 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. - The weekly profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is - 131.71 yuan/head, an increase of 55.08 yuan. The weekly profit from self - breeding and self - fattening is 50.25 yuan/head, an increase of 30.85 yuan. - The monthly pork import volume is 90 thousand tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160 thousand heads, an increase of 1390 thousand heads. - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry amount to 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan. [2] Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on July 2, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 233,860 heads, a 6.51% increase from the previous day. [2]