Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, along with the potential for a year - end price upturn, provides some support to the market [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the slaughter weight of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 3,795 lots in positions today, with approximately 84,900 lots held. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,160 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before September and October. The bullish logic includes weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather cools down, and limited increase in future slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price may rise at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 16, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.98% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased. - Among the futures prices, most contracts showed a downward trend, with the 11 - contract closing at 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous day. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 55 yuan/ton or 64.71% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts and the 01 - 03 contracts, which can help investors understand the market trends [14].

生猪日报 | 2025-09-11 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、9月10日，生猪注册仓单428手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓2241手，持仓约7.57万手，今日最高价 13400元/吨，最低价13210元/吨，收盘于13315元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市；②天气转凉后消费有望逐渐好 转；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限。 【策略建议】 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 邮箱地址： shixy@hrrdqh.com 联系方式： 0371-69106756 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support pig prices to some extent. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 21, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Affected by macro - sentiment, the main contract (LH2509) increased its positions and rose, with a position of about 64,300 lots. The highest price on the day was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that subsequent slaughter increase is limited while the fourth quarter is gradually entering the peak consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 21, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from July 18. In Henan, it was 14.53 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35%. In Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan or 0.29%. Among futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally increased, with the 01 contract up 2.1%, the 03 contract up 1.81%, the 05 contract up 1.7%, the 09 contract up 1.63%, and the 11 contract up 1.72%. The main basis in Henan decreased by 80 yuan or 32.65% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data tracking charts such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, suggesting investors to wait and see for the time being [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 8, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 447 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price, and in the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the live pig market are not significant. The LH2509 contract is undergoing oscillatory adjustment [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 350 lots today, with a position of approximately 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,230 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,275 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the data of breeding sows and piglets, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase will be limited. The overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamental perspectives, the spread between fat and standard pigs may undergo oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Market bearish and bullish logics: Bears believe that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited in the second and third quarters. Bulls believe that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is resilient, and although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the consumption peak season is approaching [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the short - term rise and fall of pig prices are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Data - On July 8, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.13% compared to the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.15 yuan/kg and 14.41 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan increasing by 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.53% and Sichuan remaining unchanged [6]. - Among the futures contracts, the 09 contract increased by 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%, while other contracts such as 01, 03, 05, 07, and 11 contracts showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton or 6.06% to 875 yuan/ton [6].