Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed strong performance, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to significant reduction by large - scale farms and reluctance to sell by smallholders, while the demand increased slightly but was further suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.23% week - on - week. The futures market for live pigs showed strong fluctuations, with the LH2509 contract closing at 14005 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. During the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a significant impact on prices. Although large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy, and the core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of social pigpens. The LH2509 contract price is expected to continue to rise in the short term, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [3][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (6.23 - 6.29) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 37.8 yuan/kg last week to 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1621 yuan/head last week to 1623 yuan/head. Supply was tight due to large - scale farms reducing supply and smallholders' reluctance to sell, while demand increased slightly but was suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight was 125.26KG, a 0.23% decrease from last week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live pigs showed strong fluctuations. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14005 yuan/ton (compared with 13895 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton (compared with 535 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.30 - 7.6) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, but smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. Supply may increase in the third quarter, and demand is in the off - season, with limited downstream support. The policy of government purchasing provides support, and the expectation of a policy bottom has been formed, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price closed at 14005 yuan/ton on June 27. The market expectation is strong in the short term, and there is still a bullish sentiment. The expected centralized de - stocking time has not arrived, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 925 yuan/ton, and the spread between LH2509 and LH2511 was 560 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 125.26KG (compared with 125.55KG last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% increase month - on - month, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% increase month - on - month [11]. - **Demand**: Not specifically summarized in the text.