Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed weak fluctuations. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 20.9 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan dropped from 11.73 yuan/kg last week to 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,548 yuan/head. The supply was relatively loose as group enterprises increased output and the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. After the temperature dropped, consumption increased both in the north and south. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.62KG, a 0.1% decrease from last week [2]. - In the futures market, the price of live pig futures showed strong fluctuations. The highest price of the LH2601 contract was 11,605 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,465 yuan/ton (compared to 11,350 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was -80 yuan/ton (compared to 380 yuan/ton last week) [2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and there was a large amount of secondary fattening backlogged in October. Although the demand increased after the temperature dropped, the supply pressure was prominent, and the price continued to decline. The supply is expected to increase continuously, and the speculative demand has been overdrawn. With factors such as slow enterprise slaughter progress, reduced speculative demand, and the impact of the epidemic, the selling of individual farmers will accelerate, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2601 contract price closed at 11,465 yuan/ton on November 28th. Due to factors such as the weakening of the fat - standard price difference and the spread of the epidemic in some areas, the spot market remained weak. However, due to position limits on the January contract, there was a divergence between futures and spot prices. The January contract had a premium of over 800 yuan/ton over the lowest deliverable price. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market driven by sellers' warehouse receipts delivery in December. For the far - end contracts, large reverse spreads can be held, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review (11.24 - 11.30) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 20.9 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.38 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,548 yuan/head. The supply was relatively loose, and consumption increased after the temperature dropped. The average slaughter weight was 124.62KG, a 0.1% decrease from last week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2601 contract fluctuated strongly, with a closing price of 11,465 yuan/ton. The basis was -80 yuan/ton [2]. Market Outlook (12.1 - 12.7) - **Spot Market**: The spot price will run weakly. The supply pressure is prominent, and factors such as slow slaughter progress, reduced speculative demand, and the impact of the epidemic will lead to continuous pressure on the price [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2601 contract has a divergence between futures and spot prices. Attention should be paid to the basis - narrowing market in December. For the far - end contracts, large reverse spreads can be held. The short - term support level is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,000 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was -80 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 spread was 215 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 124.62KG. In September, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous month; in October, the pork import was 7.14 tons, an 11.14% decrease from the previous month [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Price**: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - **Sow Spot Price**: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - **Piglet Spot Price**: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - **Short - term Supply**: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - **Medium - term Supply**: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - **Long - term Supply**: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - **Demand**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - **Profit**: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].