生猪期货LH2509合约

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生猪:期现背离运行,等待现货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed strong performance, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to significant reduction by large - scale farms and reluctance to sell by smallholders, while the demand increased slightly but was further suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.23% week - on - week. The futures market for live pigs showed strong fluctuations, with the LH2509 contract closing at 14005 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. During the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a significant impact on prices. Although large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy, and the core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of social pigpens. The LH2509 contract price is expected to continue to rise in the short term, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [3][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (6.23 - 6.29) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 37.8 yuan/kg last week to 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1621 yuan/head last week to 1623 yuan/head. Supply was tight due to large - scale farms reducing supply and smallholders' reluctance to sell, while demand increased slightly but was suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight was 125.26KG, a 0.23% decrease from last week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live pigs showed strong fluctuations. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14005 yuan/ton (compared with 13895 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton (compared with 535 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.30 - 7.6) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, but smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. Supply may increase in the third quarter, and demand is in the off - season, with limited downstream support. The policy of government purchasing provides support, and the expectation of a policy bottom has been formed, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price closed at 14005 yuan/ton on June 27. The market expectation is strong in the short term, and there is still a bullish sentiment. The expected centralized de - stocking time has not arrived, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 925 yuan/ton, and the spread between LH2509 and LH2511 was 560 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 125.26KG (compared with 125.55KG last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% increase month - on - month, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% increase month - on - month [11]. - **Demand**: Not specifically summarized in the text.
生猪:去库路径改变,等待现货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:35
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of live pigs showed a strong performance, with the price in Henan rising from 14.08 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the national average slaughter weight decreasing by 0.17% week-on-week. The futures price of live pigs also had a strong oscillation, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week, and the basis increasing from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact during the off - season. Despite the group's weight - reduction plan, short - term retail investor reluctance to sell, active replenishment by secondary fattening groups, and the expectation of policy procurement support the price. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, and the demand is in the off - season with limited downstream support. The policy of procurement provides a price floor, but it also complicates the de - stocking path. The core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of the social circle [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair and stop - loss and take - profit operations [4]. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.16 - 6.22) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 39.1 yuan/kg last week to 37.8 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.08 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg. The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,621 yuan/head. The supply was tight as the group's incremental supply was limited and retail investors were reluctant to sell. The demand increased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but was further suppressed by rising temperatures, and the average slaughter weight decreased by 0.17% week - on - week [1]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a strong oscillation, with a high of 13,900 yuan/ton, a low of 13,715 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract increased from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.23 - 6.29) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group is reducing weight according to the plan, but retail investors are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening groups are actively replenishing. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, with accelerated inventory accumulation in the retail and secondary fattening sectors and more obvious incremental supply in the third quarter. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support is limited. The policy of procurement provides a price floor and stimulates further pressure on retail investors and secondary fattening, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract price closed at 13,895 yuan/ton on June 20. The positive fat - to - lean price difference reduces the willingness of retail investors to sell in a concentrated manner. Secondary fattening is active, and the utilization rate of pens has increased. The group is de - stocking, and there is still short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair [4]. Other Data - This week's basis was 535 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 spread was - 560 yuan/ton [9]. - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.55KG, down from 125.76KG last week. In April, the pork output was 5.268 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month increase, and in May, the pork import volume was 93,700 tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].
生猪:交易累库及存量预期印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 08:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (5.12 - 5.18), the spot price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 44.1 yuan/kg (last week 45 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.85 yuan/kg (last week 15 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week. The futures price of live pigs was weak, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13660 yuan/ton (last week 13925 yuan/ton), and the basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton (last week 1075 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (5.19 - 5.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter has a greater impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. The LH2509 contract price has a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15000 yuan/ton. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (5.12 - 5.18) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted. On the supply side, in May, the group showed no intention to actively sell and reduce weight, and individual farmers sold pigs in a rolling manner. On the demand side, the frozen - fresh price difference continued to support regular demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening weakened after the festival. The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live pigs was weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 14060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13660 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (5.19 - 5.25) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. From the supply perspective, after the replenishment from February to April, the empty pen rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening have decreased, and the inventory accumulation progress has accelerated, but there is still room for inventory accumulation. From the demand perspective, it is currently the off - season for consumption, with an increase in the demand for frozen - to - fresh conversion, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. Overall, the speculative demand in May is still supported, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2509 contract decreased due to the confirmation of long - term expectations by piglet and feed data and the confirmation of inventory accumulation by the slaughter of fattened pigs. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis was 1190 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of LH2507 - LH2509 was - 255 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight this week was 126.4KG (last week 126.51KG). In March, the pork production was 5.08 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [9][12].
生猪:近端矛盾仍在累积,等待方向
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].