1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live hog spot price was weak first and then strong, slightly falling compared to before the New Year's Day holiday, with the southern price performing weaker than the northern price. The live hog futures fluctuated, and the main LH03 contract reached a high of 11,925 on Wednesday and then declined. The basis of the Henan spot price against LH03 generally fluctuated, the futures were generally weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term, and the spread between LH03 and LH05 decreased. After the New Year's Day, consumption was seasonally weak, the slaughtering end had a general acceptance of high prices. Meanwhile, large - scale farms reduced the supply at the beginning of the month and then slightly increased it, and small - scale farmers were somewhat reluctant to sell large hogs. The decrease in both supply and demand led to a lower slaughter volume, but the hog price fluctuated, indicating that supply and demand were generally in a balanced state [7]. - In the second half of January, domestic consumption will enter the pre - holiday stocking peak season, and slaughter demand will increase significantly. Considering the reduced sales plan of large - scale farms in December, the supply of small and medium - sized farmers' hogs is the key to the pre - holiday supply capacity. Considering the lagging supply of second - fattened hogs in December and the weakening price difference between fat and standard hogs, there is unlikely to be a large supply - demand imbalance during the peak season [7]. - In the medium term, according to the previous piglet birth data, the supply of standard hogs after the Spring Festival is still large, which will continue to suppress the March contract. In the long term, continuous losses will be conducive to the industry's capacity reduction, providing low - level support for distant contracts. In terms of operation, short the LH03 and LH05 contracts on rallies, and seize the low - level band - buying opportunities under the wide - range fluctuation of distant contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The past week saw the live hog spot price first weak then strong, slightly down from before the New Year's Day. Futures fluctuated. The current supply - demand is in balance. In the future, consumption will enter the peak season in mid - to - late January, but large supply - demand imbalance is unlikely. Medium - term supply pressure exists after the Spring Festival, and long - term capacity reduction may support distant contracts. Suggested operations are to short near - term contracts on rallies and buy distant contracts at low levels in bands [7]. 3.2 13. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price decline: At the national level, the state does not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level early warning of excessive decline is issued, may start it when the second - level early warning is issued, and starts temporary reserve purchases when the first - level early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice [63]. - In case of excessive price increase: There are two scenarios for the central frozen pork reserve release. In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, the release is started when the second - level early warning of excessive increase is issued and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal disease risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and after the first - level early warning is issued, the release is mainly organized during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should generally not be higher than the central conditions [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs and support pig prices [4]. - If farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions in the 09 contract and wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On August 5, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,540 lots today, with a position of about 35,700 lots. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the approach of the peak consumption season [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the price will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is abundant, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, and if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions and wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On August 5, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.93 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.13 yuan/kg (a 0.36% increase) and 13.37 yuan/kg (a 0.52% decrease) respectively [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 09 contract decreased by 0.39% to 13,885 yuan/ton [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 75% to 245 yuan/ton [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between 09 - 11 contracts and 11 - 01 contracts [14].