研究所 回归基本面 生猪震荡调整 ——国信期货生猪周报 2026年01月09日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 2 关键数据与图表 录 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货先弱后强，较元旦假期前小幅下跌，南方价格表现弱于北方；生猪期货震荡为主，主力LH03合约周三达到 11925的高点后回落。河南现货对LH03基差大体震荡为主，期货总体近弱远强，LH3-5月差走低。元旦节后，消费阶段性转淡 ，屠宰端对高价接受一般，同时，集团场月初先缩量后小幅回升，且散户大猪有一定惜售心理，供需双减使得屠宰量走低，但 猪价震荡，反映供需力量大体处于平衡状态。往后来看，1月下半月国内消费将进入年前备货旺季阶段，届时屠宰需求将大幅 增加，考虑集团场12月出栏计划有所减少，后期中小散生猪供应是决定节前供应能力的关键。考虑12月二育猪的滞后供应， 及目前肥标猪价差走弱的现实，旺季不太可能有较大的供需失衡的情况。从中期来看，根据前期仔猪出生数据来看，春节后标 猪供应量依然较大，会继续压制3月合约；长期来看，持续亏损将有利于行业去产能，对远端合约形成低位支撑。操作上， LH03、LH05合约逢高做空。远月宽幅震荡下把 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Based on sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce the weight of pigs and support pig prices [4]. - If farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions in the 09 contract and wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On August 5, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,540 lots today, with a position of about 35,700 lots. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the approach of the peak consumption season [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the price will fluctuate and adjust [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is abundant, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, and if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to stop profiting from previous short - positions and wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On August 5, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.93 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.13 yuan/kg (a 0.36% increase) and 13.37 yuan/kg (a 0.52% decrease) respectively [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 09 contract decreased by 0.39% to 13,885 yuan/ton [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 75% to 245 yuan/ton [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price differences between 09 - 11 contracts and 11 - 01 contracts [14].