Report Overview - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to some extent [4] - If farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On August 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2] - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 3,370 lots today, with a position of about 75,000 lots. The highest price was 13,750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,590 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of spot prices indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season of live pigs [3] 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will fluctuate and adjust [4] - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average pig slaughter price on August 28 was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.73 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37%) and 13.35 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg or - 0.82%) respectively [6] - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or - 0.99% [6] - The main basis in Henan was 140 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton or 315.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between different contracts, etc. [14]

生猪日报 | 2025-08-06 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月5日，生猪注册仓单300手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓2540手，持仓约3.57万手，今日最高价13980 元/吨，最低价13825元/吨，收盘于13885元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧 性强，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且 三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, making it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 29, there were 205 registered hog warehouse receipts [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether hog weight will continue to be reduced [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 6,608 lots today, with a position of approximately 54,800 lots. The highest price was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pork prices as the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory to support pork prices, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side believes, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the gradual arrival of the peak hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding sector), and it is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly under ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to risk prevention and control as commodities are greatly affected by macro - sentiment [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Hog Slaughter Price**: On July 29, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.64% from the previous day. In Henan, it was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43%. In Sichuan, it was 13.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% [6]. - **Futures Price**: The 01 contract was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton or 0.66%. The 03 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33%. The 05 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The 07 contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 3.75%. The 09 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The 11 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.88% [6]. - **Main Contract Basis**: In Henan, the main contract basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 68% from the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although there is a possibility of the spot price hitting a new low, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,467 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,880 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,765 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,835 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust. The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding industry, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and weak demand support in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, the strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume and the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. If there is a large - scale and concentrated weight reduction in June and July, the pig price may hit a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 18, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.07%. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, an increase of 0.49%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.72%. Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts all showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 0.04% to 0.26% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].