生猪日报 | 2025-08-06 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月5日，生猪注册仓单300手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓2540手，持仓约3.57万手，今日最高价13980 元/吨，最低价13825元/吨，收盘于13885元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧 性强，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且 三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, making it difficult for pork prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the significant impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 29, there were 205 registered hog warehouse receipts [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether hog weight will continue to be reduced [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 6,608 lots today, with a position of approximately 54,800 lots. The highest price was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pork prices as the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory to support pork prices, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side believes, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume with the gradual arrival of the peak hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding sector), and it is difficult for pork prices to rise significantly under ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce hog weight and providing some support for pork prices. If farmers continue to reduce hog weight or keep it stable, pork prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. The 09 contract has a large premium over the spot price, so a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to risk prevention and control as commodities are greatly affected by macro - sentiment [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Hog Slaughter Price**: On July 29, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.64% from the previous day. In Henan, it was 13.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43%. In Sichuan, it was 13.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.75% [6]. - **Futures Price**: The 01 contract was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton or 0.66%. The 03 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33%. The 05 contract was 14,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.21%. The 07 contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 3.75%. The 09 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The 11 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.88% [6]. - **Main Contract Basis**: In Henan, the main contract basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 68% from the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the pig price will be in a state of shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly. However, the demand side also provides some support, preventing the pig price from falling significantly. It is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 2, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 450 lots. The LH2509 contract had a significant increase due to the continuous rise of the spot price. The main contract (LH2509) increased its positions by 5,729 lots today, with a position of about 83,900 lots, the highest price was 14,375 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second and third quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a volatile manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [2]. - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, the fat - standard difference may be adjusted in a volatile manner [2]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, so it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current "weight reduction - stable pig price" relationship in the spot market indicates that the demand side also supports the pig price, and it is difficult for the pig price to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and the recent rise in pig prices may be affected by the low slaughter volume of the breeding end. If the slaughter returns to normal, the rise in pig prices is likely to be unsustainable, so it is not recommended to chase the long position [3]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 2, the national average live pig slaughter price was 15.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.46% compared with the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 15.45 yuan/kg and 14.73 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 0.16 yuan/kg (1.05%) and 0.26 yuan/kg (1.8%) [5]. - For futures contracts, the 09 contract had the largest increase of 3.43%, while the 07 contract had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.11% [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides historical data charts of national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, futures contract closing prices in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the 09 - 11 contract spread, and the 11 - 01 contract spread, but specific numerical summaries are not further provided [6][7][9][10][13].

Supply Analysis - The official breeding sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with little monthly variation in the first half of the year [1] - In the first half of the year, piglet sales profits were good and feed costs were low, leading to a gradual increase in monthly piglet supply in the second quarter [1] - Breeding profits have declined to near breakeven, with the price difference for standard pigs expanding, prompting secondary fattening and group sales, resulting in a steady release of production capacity [1] Demand Analysis - Slaughter volumes in March and April significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 8% in officially designated slaughter volumes, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - The national reserve's rotation and storage in the first half of the year provided support for slaughter enterprises [1] - High temperatures in July and August may suppress demand, while the peak demand season in the fourth quarter and domestic macroeconomic recovery may support pig prices [1] Profit Analysis - Breeding profits reached a high point in the second quarter before declining, but profits remain positive [1] - Profit changes are influenced by rising corn prices and a downward shift in spot prices, with limited downward space for breeding profits despite potential corn price increases [1] Basis Analysis - The market supply is loose, with futures fluctuating around cost lines, and near-month contracts significantly discounting spot prices [1] - Supply pressure has shifted, causing spot prices to decline less than expected, with contracts for March and May driving futures prices up [1] - Long-term contract basis fluctuates between 800 and 1300, with strong market expectations and slow declines in spot prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Overall inventory increases, weight reduction expectations, and fluctuations in secondary fattening are expected to extend the downward cycle of live pigs [1] - Inventory increases in July and August may slow down, while the growth rate of inventory in September may accelerate, maintaining a loose supply pattern [1] - It is recommended to short the September and November contracts based on basis adjustments [1]

生猪日报 | 2025-06-19 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月18日，生猪注册仓单750手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1467手，持仓约8万手，最高价13880元/吨， 最低价13765元/吨，收盘于13835元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 另存为PDF 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度 逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡偏弱； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025 ...