" 残酷的外卖账本，越努力越亏钱。 " 作者丨 覃倩雯 编辑丨刘伟 在外卖和即时零售这场声势浩大的战争中，看得见和看不见的细节，都藏在了数字背后。 京东的财报已经拆盲盒，市场在盯着阿里美团的Q3季报，这份财报将会回答很多问题：7-9月份的战损情 况、订单规模、UE以及外卖导流电商的逻辑究竟是不是皇帝的新衣。 不久前，阿里在香港与投资机构做的Q3业绩Preview上流出来的几个关键信息显示： 1、CMR同比增速和上个季度类似（10% YoY），GMV月度趋势和统计局线上实物社零趋势类似，闪购 贡献2-3%增量； 2、闪购亏损350-400亿元，9月份单量相对稳定，和7、8月份比单量有季节性波动； 3、纯电商EBITA同比正增长，同比增速好于6月季度； 4、9月闪购UE减亏on track，12月季度的某月度UE预计会较7、8月份峰值减亏一半。 多位分析人士认为，这段Preview 的信息量很大，阿里GMV增速低于行业增速，也低于拼多多和抖音电商 的双位数增速，电商协同效应暂时还不明显。（欢迎对电商平台感兴趣的业者添加微信 qqw_501 交 流。） 但考虑拼多多已经发布Q3财报，其广告收入增速已经跌至8%，如果 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that Alibaba Health's stock price has increased by approximately 27% since the announcement of its fiscal year 2025 results, outperforming peers by 8 percentage points [1] - The increase in stock price is attributed to positive investor reactions to recent updates in online retail sales policies for prescription drugs, leading to a target price adjustment from HKD 5 to HKD 6.5, reflecting a projected price-to-sales ratio of 2.5 times for the current fiscal year [1] - The report suggests that the impact of the policy update is more emotional than substantive, as it does not differ significantly from existing policies [1] Group 2 - The synergy with Taobao's fast e-commerce is expected to be a key focus for the first half of the current fiscal year ending in September, particularly in terms of user and order growth, potential investment scale, and user retention post-subsidy normalization [1] - Revenue forecasts for Alibaba Health for the current and next fiscal years have been raised by 4%, reflecting the collaborative effects with Taobao's fast e-commerce on user traffic and overall transaction volume [1] - Adjusted earnings per share forecasts for the current and next fiscal years have been increased by 3% and 4% respectively, due to savings from market promotion costs associated with high subsidies from Taobao, partially offset by investment from business collaboration [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Alibaba Health's stock price has outperformed its peers since the announcement of its fiscal year 2025 results in May, primarily due to investor optimism regarding recent updates to online prescription drug retail sales policies, despite these updates being largely similar to existing policies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue forecasts for Alibaba Health by 4% for both the current fiscal year and the next fiscal year, based on the synergistic effects with Taobao's fast e-commerce in terms of user traffic and total transaction volume [1] - The adjusted earnings per share forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next fiscal year have been increased by 3% and 4%, respectively, considering the marketing savings from Taobao's high subsidies for fast e-commerce [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - The report emphasizes that the synergy with Taobao's fast e-commerce will be a key focus for the first half of the current fiscal year, including growth in user and order volume, potential investment scale and forms, and user retention post-subsidy normalization [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Alibaba Health from HKD 5 to HKD 6.5 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]