SDICSI 2025 年 8 月 20 日 特步国际 (1368.HK) 电商持续驱动，索康尼继续高增长 风险提示：宏观经济下行；行业竞争加剧；新品牌发展不及预期。 财务及估值摘要 | (年结 31/3；RMB 百万) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 12,743 | 13,577 | 14,520 | 15,830 | 16,991 | | 增长率（%） | 10.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | | 归母净利润 | 1,030 | 1,238 | 1,402 | 1,563 | 1,718 | | 增长率（%） | 11.8% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | | 毛利率（%） | 41.8% | 43.2% | 43.2% | 43.6% | 43.9% | | 归母净利率（%） | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.41 | 0 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Indonesian lunch box and water cup market is experiencing growth driven by urbanization, health awareness, and sustainability trends, with a projected CAGR of 6.3% from 2025 to 2031 [1][9][10] - The lunch box market primarily features materials such as BPA-free plastic, stainless steel, glass, and silicone, focusing on leak-proof sealing, microwave compatibility, compartmental design, and thermal insulation [1][6][9] - The water cup market is significantly influenced by the rise of coffee culture and environmental consciousness, with stainless steel and ceramic as the main materials [2][36] Group 2: Key Trends and Drivers - The demand for eco-friendly materials is increasing, with consumers favoring BPA-free, stainless steel, and glass lunch boxes [9][10] - E-commerce platforms like Tokopedia and Shopee are driving sales of branded and imported lunch boxes [9][10] - Government initiatives promoting reusable food containers aim to reduce single-use plastics, further supporting market growth [10] Group 3: Challenges - Price sensitivity poses a challenge, as imported lunch boxes face competition from local low-cost alternatives [10] - Strict regulations regarding food safety and material standards for imported food containers are in place, including compliance with BPOM standards [10][14] - Balancing affordability with high quality remains a challenge for consumers [10] Group 4: Popular Products and Brands - Best-selling products include LocknLock plastic lunch boxes, Hydro Flask stainless steel lunch boxes, and Tupperware eco-friendly paper lunch boxes, with local brands dominating the market [1][2][12][28] - The market features a variety of popular cup types, including vacuum insulated cups, traditional glass cups, ceramic cups, and biodegradable paper cups [2][35][36] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Indonesia has specific import regulations for lunch boxes, including licensing, tariffs, and compliance requirements [11][14] - Import duties for plastic and stainless steel lunch boxes typically range from 5% to 15%, while glass lunch boxes may incur higher tariffs due to fragility [14][16]