Group 1 - The core view of Guosen Securities is optimistic about Xtep International's focus on the mass market for steady growth, with its brands Saucony and Merrell maintaining rapid growth by targeting "dual elite groups" and outdoor activities, respectively [1][2] - Guosen Securities maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.4 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [1] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 11-12x, with a rating of "outperform the market" [1] Group 2 - In Q4, Xtep's main brand retail sales remained flat year-on-year, with retail discounts between 70-75%, while Saucony's retail sales grew over 30% [1][2] - The main brand's retail sales for the full year showed low single-digit growth, with an inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4.5 months at year-end [1] - The running category performed well, with core series like "Two Thousand Kilometers" and "Champion Family" showing strong results despite negative factors such as temperature and delayed Spring Festival [2]

Company Dynamics - The company reported its Q4 2025 operational performance, with the main brand's retail revenue remaining flat year-on-year, retail discounts maintained at 70-75%, and channel inventory turnover at 4.5 months by the end of December [1] - The Saucony brand saw retail revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year, with strong performance in offline channels and an average store efficiency of 450,000 yuan per month [1] Commentary - The retail environment has experienced fluctuations, but the main brand's operations remained stable in Q4 2025, with online channels, particularly live e-commerce, performing well [1] - Monthly performance showed stability in October and November due to the Golden Week and Double Eleven promotions, while December's performance was affected by weather conditions [1] - The main brand's retail discounts remained stable, and the turnover of channel inventory was at a healthy level [1] - The functional category continued to perform well, with the running category achieving double-digit growth year-on-year [1] Future Plans - In 2026, the main brand will focus on enhancing offline store efficiency, with plans to convert 200 stores to DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) model in Q4 2025 and continue this strategy [2] - The company plans to open 20-30 new gold standard leading stores in 2026, with a focus on core business districts in first and second-tier cities [2] - The company aims to accelerate the layout of selected outlet stores, planning to open 70-100 new outlet stores in 2026, with existing stores achieving monthly efficiencies exceeding 1 million yuan [2] - For the Saucony brand, the management plans to strengthen its high-end sports image in 2026, targeting high-end consumer groups and upgrading channels to enhance store efficiency [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.49 and 0.55 yuan respectively, and introduces a 2027 EPS forecast of 0.61 yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to an 8x P/E ratio for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 11% to 6.47 HKD, indicating a 27% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Xtep International's retail sales performance shows mixed results, with the main brand's sales growth stagnating while the Saucony brand experiences significant growth [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Xtep's main brand retail sales growth remained flat year-on-year, with retail discount levels maintained between 70% to 75% [1] - The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1] Group 2: Operational Overview - For the fiscal year 2025, Xtep's main brand is projected to have low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales [1] - Inventory turnover for channels is approximately four and a half months [1] - Saucony brand continues to maintain over 30% year-on-year growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that Xtep International (01368) plans to upgrade its retail strategy and implement DTC reforms in the second half of 2025, aiming to enhance consumer responsiveness and operational efficiency, with minimal short-term financial impact expected [1] Group 1 - In Q4 2025, Xtep's main brand revenue remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decline compared to Q3 due to factors such as warmer weather and a later Spring Festival affecting winter apparel sales [2] - Retail discounts for Xtep were maintained at 70-75%, consistent with Q3, while channel inventory turnover increased slightly to approximately 4.5 months, remaining at a healthy level [2] - E-commerce channels are expected to continue the double-digit growth trend observed in the first half of 2025, and Xtep's children's line is anticipated to achieve rapid growth with the launch of growth shoes under the "Xtep Youth" branding [2] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Saucony's revenue saw over 30% year-on-year growth, accelerating from over 20% growth in Q3, attributed to adjustments made to the e-commerce channel starting in Q2 [3] - Saucony focuses on elite runners and professional products, expanding its presence in high-end shopping centers in major cities with new flagship and concept stores to enhance customer reach and store efficiency [3] - The synergy between Xtep's main brand and Saucony in the running sector is expected to strengthen, further increasing market share, with Xtep and Saucony leading in the joint wearing rate among marathon participants in 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Xtep International (01368) at 0.49/0.55 yuan for 2025/26, introduces a new EPS forecast of 0.61 yuan for 2027, and sets a target price of HKD 6.47, reflecting an 11% decrease and a 27% upside potential from the current stock price, corresponding to an 11x P/E for 2026 [1]. Company Status - Xtep reported that its main brand's retail revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q4 2025, with retail discounts between 70% to 75%, and channel inventory turnover at 4.5 months by the end of December. The Saucony brand saw retail revenue growth of over 30% year-on-year [2]. Retail Environment and Performance - The retail environment showed fluctuations, with the main brand's retail revenue remaining stable in Q4 2025. Online channels, particularly live e-commerce, performed well. Monthly performance was strong in October and November due to promotional events, but December was affected by weather conditions. Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable, and the inventory turnover was healthy [3]. Saucony Brand Growth - The Saucony brand experienced accelerated growth in Q4 2025, with retail revenue increasing by over 30% year-on-year. Strong growth was noted in offline channels, with average store efficiency reaching 450,000 yuan per month. The brand's product line continued to expand with new sports and leisure products, achieving double-digit growth in apparel [4]. Strategic Focus for 2026 - In 2026, the main brand will focus on enhancing offline store efficiency, while the Saucony brand aims for a premium positioning. The management plans to convert 200 stores to a DTC model and open 20-30 new flagship stores. The company also plans to accelerate the opening of outlet stores, with a target of 70-100 new stores in 2026, and aims to enhance the high-end sports image of Saucony [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains the EPS forecast for Xtep International at 0.49/0.55 CNY for 2025/26 and introduces a new EPS forecast of 0.61 CNY for 2027, with a target price adjustment down by 11% to 6.47 HKD, indicating a 27% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 2 - The company reported that the retail revenue of its main brand remained flat year-on-year in Q4 2025, with retail discounts maintained at 70-75%, and channel inventory turnover at 4.5 months by the end of December [2][3] - The retail environment showed fluctuations, with the main brand's performance being stable despite some impact from weather in December; online channels, particularly live e-commerce, performed well [3] Group 3 - The Saucony brand experienced over 30% year-on-year growth in retail revenue for Q4 2025, with strong offline channel growth and an average store efficiency of 450,000 CNY per month [4] - The company plans to enhance the offline store efficiency of its main brand and aims to open 20-30 new premium stores in 2026, while also expanding its outlet store presence significantly [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The main brand of the company is under short-term pressure, but the Saucony brand is expected to continue its rapid growth in the future [2][8] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, estimating earnings per share of 0.49, 0.53, and 0.59 RMB respectively, with a target price of 7.06 HKD based on a 12x PE valuation for 2026 [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to be 14,380 in 2025, 15,321 in 2026, and 16,451 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 6.5%, and 7.4% respectively [4] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to be 1,974 in 2025, 2,218 in 2026, and 2,463 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.5%, 12.3%, and 11.1% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 1,366 in 2025, 1,494 in 2026, and 1,661 in 2027, with growth rates of 10.3%, 9.4%, and 11.2% respectively [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 44.0% in 2025 to 45.0% in 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 9.5% in 2025 to 10.1% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity is expected to be 13.5% in 2025 and improve to 14.2% in 2027 [4] Brand Performance Insights - The main brand's revenue is under pressure due to a weak consumer environment and increased competition, but it is expected to stabilize through channel expansion and product innovation [8] - The Saucony brand has shown strong growth, with a revenue increase of over 30% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and is expected to continue outperforming the industry [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the SW textile and apparel sector increased by 3.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99% [14] - The top five stocks in the textile and apparel sector by weekly increase were Tianchuang Fashion, Yanjing Co., Mengjie Co., Tanshan Outdoor, and Sanfu Outdoor [14] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1. Raw Material Data - The Australian wool market index rose by 6.49% in the week ending January 15, 2026, and has increased by 38.49% since the beginning of 2025 [4][32] - The cotton price index in China decreased slightly, with a year-to-date increase of 1.83% as of January 23, 2026 [26] 3.2. Export Data - In 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $267.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26% [45] - In December 2025, the export value of oilcloth, tents, and sunshades decreased by 8.89% year-on-year [50] 3.3. End Consumer Data - In December 2025, the online retail sales of the apparel industry decreased by 11.93% year-on-year, with a total of 45.55 billion yuan [3.3.4] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, while online retail sales increased by 8.6% [3.3.5]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International reported stable retail sales growth for its main brand, while its Saucony brand experienced significant growth, indicating a mixed performance across its product lines [2] Group 1: Retail Performance - As of December 31, 2025, retail sales for Xtep's main brand showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, with retail discount levels maintained between 70% to 75% [2] - The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales, highlighting its strong market performance [2] Group 2: Operational Insights - For the fiscal year 2025, Xtep's main brand is expected to see low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, indicating a modest outlook [2] - Inventory turnover for channels is approximately four and a half months, suggesting a stable inventory management strategy [2] - The Saucony brand continues to maintain over 30% year-on-year growth, reinforcing its position in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International (01368) experienced a nearly 3% decline in stock price, trading at HKD 5.08 with a transaction volume of HKD 40.75 million as of the report time [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - For the three months ending December 31, 2025, Xtep's main brand retail sales (including both online and offline channels) remained flat year-on-year, with retail discount levels between 70% to 75% [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Xtep's main brand retail sales achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with inventory turnover at approximately four and a half months [1] Group 2: Sub-brand Performance - The retail sales of the sub-brand Saucony (including both online and offline channels) saw over 30% year-on-year growth [1] - This strong performance in Saucony contrasts with the main brand's flat sales, indicating a potential shift in consumer preference or brand strength [1]