公司点评 | 特步国际 主品牌稳健提升，索康尼延续强势增长 特步国际（01368.HK）跟踪点评 核心数据 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,459 | 15,559 | 16,778 | | 增长率 | 10.9% | -5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 1,030 | 1,238 | 1,379 | 1,516 | 1,664 | | 增长率 | 11.8% | 20.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | | 每股收益（EPS） | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.59 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 15.1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | | 市净率（P/B） | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，西部证券研发中心 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xtep International reported a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth and a 21.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025, slightly exceeding expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.838 billion RMB in H1 2025, with the main brand (Xtep) contributing 6.053 billion RMB, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 88.5% of total revenue [1] - The professional sports segment (including Saucony and Merrell) saw a significant revenue increase of 32.5% to 785 million RMB, representing 11.5% of total revenue, driven by strong offline retail performance [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 43.6%, with the main brand's gross margin also down by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 914 million RMB, with a net profit margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 13.4% [1] Dividend and Earnings Forecast - The company declared a dividend of 0.18 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised to 0.55, 0.62, and 0.68 RMB, respectively, with a target price adjustment to 7.16 HKD [1][2] Operational Efficiency - As of H1 2025, the main brand had 7,924 stores, a net decrease of 42 stores since the beginning of the year, while Saucony increased its store count by 10 to 155 [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand image and expanding its product matrix with new series [2] Strategic Focus Post-Divestiture - Following the divestiture of KSWISS and Palladium, the company aims to concentrate resources on the main brand and Saucony, which is expected to lead to faster growth [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.84 billion HKD in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.91 billion HKD, up 21.5% year-on-year. Excluding the loss of 0.11 billion HKD from the divested KP, the comparable net profit increased by 6% year-on-year. The interim dividend payout ratio remained stable at 50% compared to the previous year [2][4] - The main brand showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% to 6.05 billion HKD, while the professional sports segment grew by 32.5% to 0.79 billion HKD. The strong growth in the e-commerce channel, which accounted for over 30% of the main brand's revenue, contributed to this performance [6] - The gross margin slightly decreased, with the main brand's gross margin down by 0.3 percentage points to 43.6%. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the main brand decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 20%. However, the professional sports segment saw a significant improvement in OPM, which increased by 6.1 percentage points to 10% despite a 1.6 percentage point drop in gross margin to 55.2% [6] - Looking ahead, the main brand is expected to maintain steady performance in a competitive environment, while the professional sports brand, Saucony, is anticipated to become a significant growth driver for the group. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.41 billion HKD, 1.58 billion HKD, and 1.75 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.16 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.838 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 914 million, which is a 21.5% increase compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The professional sports segment, including brands like Saucony, showed significant growth with a 32.5% increase in revenue to RMB 785 million, driven by strong offline retail performance [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to RMB 0.55, 0.62, and 0.68 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on the recent performance [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 14.52 billion, with a growth rate of 6.9% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.402 billion, indicating a growth rate of 13.2% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 43.2% for 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to be 9.7% [5][11]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% in the coming years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.48% for 2025 [5][11]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its channels, with a total of 7,924 stores for the main brand as of the first half of 2025, reflecting a net decrease of 42 stores since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand image and expanding its product matrix, particularly in the elite sports lifestyle segment [3]. - Following the divestiture of KSWISS and Palladium, the company aims to concentrate resources on its main brand and Saucony, which is expected to lead to faster growth in the future [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.838 billion, net profit of 914 million, and operating cash flow of 774 million for H1 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, 21.5%, and a decline of 6.4% respectively, with net profit growth primarily driven by the sale of KP brand leading to a loss of 106 million in H1 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 45.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with the mass sports and professional sports segments showing gross margins of 43.6% and 55.2% respectively [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) increased to 19.1%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with operating profits for mass sports and professional sports segments at 1.208 billion and 79 million respectively, reflecting increases of 1.5% and 236.8% [2] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 13.4%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in administrative expense ratio by 0.8 percentage points [2] Business Segments - The mass sports segment (Xtep) and professional sports segment (Saucony, Myle) generated revenues of 6.052 billion and 785 million respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 4.5% and 32.5% [1] - The number of stores for H1 2025 included 1,564 for Xtep Kids, 6,360 for Xtep, and 155 for Saucony, with net decreases of 218 and 142 for Xtep and Xtep Kids, while Saucony saw a net increase of 27 stores [1] - E-commerce business showed strong growth, achieving double-digit growth in H1 2025, accounting for over 30% of Xtep's main brand revenue [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty, despite short-term negative impacts on sales [2] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and open new flagship and concept stores in key urban areas, aiming to improve gross margins post-acquisition of Saucony and Myle [2] - The company aims to streamline operations by selling the KP brand, reducing financial drag, and concentrating on its three main brands [2]

Group 1 - The company's mid-year revenue growth met expectations, while profit growth slightly exceeded market estimates, achieving a 21.5% year-on-year increase due to effective management cost control and increased government subsidies [1] - The overall gross margin saw a slight decline year-on-year, attributed to deeper online discounts amid weak discretionary consumption and a higher proportion of lower-margin children's business, but long-term gross margin is expected to trend upwards [1] - The company anticipates that the continued expansion and maturation of the children's business, along with the increasing revenue share from the Saucony brand, will contribute to a long-term upward trend in gross margin [1] Group 2 - The Saucony brand demonstrated strong growth, with a projected doubling of revenue over the next three years, supported by the opening of 10 new stores in mainland China and a 32.5% year-on-year increase in same-store sales [2] - The operating profit for the Saucony brand surged by 236.8% year-on-year, indicating that it has successfully transitioned past its initial adjustment phase and is now a significant growth driver for the company [2] - The company plans to enhance the development of the outdoor brand Maile, capitalizing on the current outdoor industry trend, with expectations of increased investment by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The company maintains its profit forecasts, projecting earnings per share of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025-2027, respectively, and assigns a target price of 8.54 HKD based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][32][34] Core Views - The company reported a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth to 6.84 billion RMB and a 21.5% increase in net profit to 910 million RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by improved profitability in ongoing operations and reduced losses from the divestment of KP [1][9] - The main brand showed steady growth with a 4.5% increase in revenue to 6.05 billion RMB, while the professional sports brands (Saucony and Merrell) experienced a significant 32.5% revenue growth to 790 million RMB [2][22] - The company is focusing on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategies, planning to open 100-200 DTC stores in 2025 and a total of 300-400 by 2026, with a capital expenditure of approximately 400 million RMB [3][31] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.84 billion RMB, with a net profit of 910 million RMB, reflecting a 22% increase in net profit [1][9] - The gross margin remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][14] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.18 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 50% [1][16] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue grew by 4.5% to 6.05 billion RMB, with e-commerce channel revenue increasing by double digits [2][21] - The professional sports segment saw a revenue increase of 32.5% to 790 million RMB, with a significant improvement in operating profit margin [2][22] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing channel management and implementing a DTC strategy to adapt to market changes, which may have a short-term impact on revenue and profit margins but is expected to benefit long-term growth [3][31] - The focus on the running category is anticipated to drive steady growth for the main brand, while professional sports brands are expected to maintain rapid growth and improve profitability [32][34] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion RMB, 1.49 billion RMB, and 1.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [32][33] - The reasonable valuation range is set at 6.1 to 6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance showed robust revenue growth, with a 21.5% increase in profit, slightly exceeding market expectations due to effective management cost control and increased government subsidies [7] - The overall gross margin saw a slight decline, but long-term prospects for improvement are anticipated as the company continues to expand its children's business and enhance the income share from the Saucony brand [7] - The Saucony brand demonstrated strong growth, with a projected doubling of revenue over the next three years, supported by the opening of new stores and a focus on high-end running products [7] - The company is expected to strengthen its outdoor brand, Merrell, in response to the growing outdoor industry, which could become a potential growth driver in the medium term [7] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 8.54 HKD based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][8] - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 14,346 million RMB (2023), 13,577 million RMB (2024), 14,452 million RMB (2025), 15,795 million RMB (2026), and 17,244 million RMB (2027), reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][12] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,030 million RMB in 2023 to 1,745 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8% (2023), 20.2% (2024), 10.6% (2025), 13.7% (2026), and 12.0% (2027) [2][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and operating cash flow of 6.838 billion, 914 million, and 774 million CNY respectively in H1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 7.1%, 21.5%, and a decline of 6.4% [2] - The net profit growth outpaced revenue growth primarily due to a loss of 106 million CNY from the sale of the KP brand in H1 2024; excluding this impact, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.4% year-on-year [2] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.18 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50.0% and a dividend yield of 6.3% [2] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The mass sports segment (Tebu) and professional sports segment (Saucony, Myle) generated revenues of 6.052 billion and 785 million CNY respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.5% and 32.5% [3] - The growth in the mass sports segment was driven by strong online sales performance, while the professional sports segment benefited from robust offline retail performance, achieving double-digit same-store sales growth [3] - The number of stores for Tebu Children, Tebu, and Saucony in H1 2025 was 1,564, 6,360, and 155 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.3%, -8.3%, and 21.1% [3] - Saucony's brand recognition among Chinese consumers has significantly increased, leading to its top position among international brands in key marathon events [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 45.0%, a year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points, with mass sports and professional sports gross margins at 43.6% and 55.2% respectively [4] - Operating profit margin (OPM) increased to 19.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points, with operating profits for mass sports and professional sports at 1.208 billion and 79 million CNY respectively [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.4%, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [4] Inventory and Cash Flow - The company's inventory increased slightly to 2.255 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [5] - Accounts receivable rose to 4.844 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with an increase in turnover days by 22 days [5] - Accounts payable decreased to 2.621 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 6.1% [5] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investments in the main brand DTC strategy may negatively impact sales performance but are expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long term [6] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and open new flagship and concept stores in key urban areas, which is anticipated to improve gross margins [6] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 14.286 billion, 15.558 billion, and 17.251 billion CNY respectively, with net profit forecasts of 1.374 billion, 1.511 billion, and 1.664 billion CNY [6]

Core Insights - Xtep International Holdings Limited reported a solid performance for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with revenue from continuing operations increasing by 7.1% to RMB 6.838 billion [2] - The main brand revenue rose by 4.5% to RMB 6.053 billion, while the professional sports segment saw a significant growth of 32.5% to RMB 785 million [2] - The gross profit margin for continuing operations reached 45.0%, and operating profit grew by 9.1% to RMB 1.305 billion [2] - After accounting for a loss of RMB 106 million from discontinued operations (K·SWISS and Paladin) in the first half of 2024, the profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 was RMB 914 million, an increase of 21.5% [2] - The basic earnings per share were RMB 0.346, with an annualized shareholder return rate of 19.7%, up by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company maintained healthy cash flow, with operating cash inflow of RMB 774 million, and declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.18 per share, a 15.4% increase [2] - The dividend payout ratio was 50.0%, and the company has maintained a payout ratio of no less than 50% for 17 consecutive years since its listing, reflecting a long-term commitment to shareholder returns [2] Strategic Focus - The Chairman and CEO of Xtep, Ding Shuibo, emphasized the company's focus on running as a strategy that solidifies its position as a leading running brand in China [3] - The company's outstanding market share in major marathon events highlights its market leadership and the effectiveness of its "Professional Influences the Masses" strategy [3] - With ongoing government support for the sports industry and rising sports participation rates, Xtep aims to strengthen its leadership in the running sector and leverage synergies between its main brand and subsidiaries, Saucony and Merrell, to enhance market share [3]