留房还是存钱
Search documents
2025年开始,是留房和存钱哪个更划算?马云、李嘉诚的看法一致
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The current dilemma for property owners and potential investors revolves around whether to hold onto real estate or convert assets into bank savings, influenced by fluctuating interest rates and changing market conditions [1][6]. Market Environment - The real estate market has shifted from rapid growth to a more rational phase, with 35 out of 70 major cities in China experiencing a month-on-month decline in new residential property prices as of September 2025 [1][3]. - First-tier cities are stabilizing in property prices, while second and third-tier cities show varying degrees of price decline, particularly in areas with significant population outflow [1][3]. Interest Rates and Savings - Bank deposit rates are rising, with three-year fixed deposit rates around 3.5% and some large-denomination certificates of deposit exceeding 4% [1][3]. - The actual yield on savings, after accounting for an estimated 2.5% inflation rate in 2025, is only about 1% when considering a 3.5% nominal interest rate and a 20% personal income tax on interest income [4]. Cost and Return Analysis - Holding property incurs ongoing costs such as property management fees, maintenance, and potential vacancy risks, with rental yields for ordinary residential properties ranging from 2% to 3.5% [3][5]. - In contrast, a case study showed that a property purchased for 900,000 yuan in a third-tier city depreciated by 5.5% over five years, while the same amount in a bank deposit would have yielded approximately 107,000 yuan, a 19% return [5][6]. Liquidity Considerations - Real estate has a longer liquidation period and higher transaction costs compared to bank savings, which offer greater liquidity and flexibility [5][6]. - Properties in core areas of first-tier cities tend to retain value due to population influx and limited land supply, while properties in declining cities may continue to lose value [5][6]. Strategic Recommendations - For high-quality properties in first-tier cities with stable rental income, holding onto the asset is generally advisable [6]. - Properties in areas with declining populations or inadequate infrastructure may be better sold for more liquid financial assets [6]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy, including stocks, funds, and bonds, is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance returns [6].