众所周知，马云不仅是商界大佬，而且在房地产领域也有其"独到的见解"。早在2017年马云在接受采访时表示："未来房价如葱"。当时房地产市场正处于上 升周期，具有较好的赚钱效应。为此，很多投资客都在连夜排队买房，而开发商也都在疯狂拿地。所以，大家对马云当时的言论并没有太在意。 而在未来5年内，各地房价调整的趋势仍会继续下去。实际上，与房价同时贬值的，可能还有存款。主要原因是，现在存款利率越来越低，以目前的存款利 率很难跑赢通货膨胀。与此同时，由于货币超发严重，未来几年通胀的可能性很大。这意味着老百姓放在银行里面存款的购买力会越来越弱。对此，有业内 人士提醒大家，未来5年，把存款换成这4个资产，或将衣食无忧。 第一，应多学几样技能 由于实体经济不景气，很多企业效益下滑，就选择裁员降薪。如果你手里掌握着一项或者多项技能，那被裁员的可能性就会大幅降低。此外，就算企业倒闭 了，手里掌握技术的人才也会很快找到满意的工作。 与此同时，如果你手里掌握着多技能之长，又觉得现在的公司薪水太低，也可以利用业余时间去做一份副业。比如，杨亮就是在TI公司上班，现在公司因效 益不好，都在降薪或裁员。而杨亮则可以利用业余时间，去开网约车，这 ...

2025：留房？留钱？中国家庭的财富抉择 2025年，中国的房地产市场正经历着一场前所未有的变革，国民经济的晴雨表正在剧烈波动。无数家庭站在十字路口，面临着一个至关重要的财富抉择：是 继续持有房产，还是将资产变现，握紧现金？这个看似简单的选择背后，隐藏着深刻的市场逻辑和巨大的财富差异。 让我们先审视一下宏观背景。国家统计局最新数据显示，房地产市场已步入调整期。2025年上半年，70个大中城市中，过半数的新建商品住宅价格环比下 降。尽管一线城市房价同比小幅上涨1.2%，二线城市基本持平，但三四线城市的跌幅却扩大至5.8%。这种市场分化的加剧，预示着房地产已不再是稳赚不 赔的单一升值工具。 挑战如影随形。流动性紧缩、人口结构变化等问题交织在一起。2024年，全国出生人口仅为956万，创下1949年以来的新低，曾经的人口红利逐渐消退，对 住房需求产生深远影响。更令人警醒的是，全国住房空置率已高达21%，部分三四线城市甚至超过30%。这些冰冷的数据都在无情地提醒我们：房地产市场 正在发生质变。 值得注意的是，投资多元化正成为新的趋势。2025年上半年，国内权益类基金规模增长23%，保险理财产品销售额增长31%。越来越 ...

银行研思录 12 每年存款到期有多少？ 总量研究/银行 所有价格都是货币（流动性）现象，资本市场也不例外，所以每一轮牛市过程 中，都会有银行存款迁徙资本市场的逻辑出现。银行研思录第 12 篇，我们将探 讨银行存款结构、到期节奏及银行息差和流动性影响。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 12 日 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5.6 15.9 36.6 相对表现 -8.3 9.8 12.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《增值税过渡期中债估值的潜在 影响—银行资负跟踪 20250810》 2025-08-11 2、《银行市值的几个口径及险资举 牌比例释疑》2025-08-07 3、《7 月社融货币预测—招证银行金 融数据前瞻》2025-08-06 王先爽 S1090524100006 wangxianshuang@cmschina.com. cn 文雪阳 S1090524110001 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Core Points - The case of the missing 295 million yuan deposit has seen new developments, with Nanjing Koyuan Smart Technology Group Co., Ltd. receiving 231 million yuan from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Nantong Branch [1][2][9] - The case, which has been ongoing for about four years, involves a significant amount of funds being pledged as collateral for a third-party company, Nantong Ruihao International Trade Co., Ltd., which failed to repay its debts [5][10] Summary by Sections Case Background - Between July 2020 and July 2021, Koyuan Smart's wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Koyuan Smart Energy Investment Co., Ltd., deposited 345 million yuan in fixed-term deposits at the bank, with 295 million yuan being pledged as collateral for Nantong Ruihao's bank acceptance bills [1][5][6] - The issue came to light when Koyuan Smart was unable to redeem the 40 million yuan deposit that matured in November 2021, leading to inquiries that revealed the larger issue of the 295 million yuan being pledged without their knowledge [6][7] Legal Proceedings - The judicial authorities recognized the case as a criminal matter involving forgery and fraud, with the bank's risk management practices being called into question [8][12] - In July 2024, the court ruled in favor of Koyuan Smart, ordering the bank to pay the principal and overdue interest, but both parties appealed the decision [8][9] Recent Developments - On July 16, 2024, the bank filed a new lawsuit against Koyuan Smart, claiming damages due to alleged negligence in the handling of the deposit [10][11] - The bank's actions have sparked discussions about whether this constitutes a counterclaim or a new lawsuit, with legal experts clarifying that it is a separate legal action [14][16] Financial Implications - The bank's claim includes accusations of Koyuan Smart receiving kickbacks amounting to 40.67 million yuan, which could complicate the legal landscape and financial responsibilities [10][12] - The ongoing litigation raises questions about the bank's liability and the potential for shared responsibility due to the circumstances surrounding the deposit's pledge [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to utilize part of its idle convertible bond fundraising for cash management, with a maximum amount of RMB 70 million allocated for investment in high-security, liquid financial products that meet capital preservation requirements [1][2]. Group 1: Cash Management Proposal - The board of directors approved the proposal to use up to RMB 70 million of idle convertible bond funds for cash management, with a usage period of 12 months from the date of approval [1]. - The investment will be directed towards financial products issued by financial institutions that are secure and liquid, and the funds will not be used for pledging [1]. Group 2: Previous Fund Utilization - On July 24, 2024, the wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiujiang Hongbai New Materials Co., Ltd., used RMB 40 million of idle convertible bond funds to purchase bank time deposits from the Shandong branch of the National Development Bank [1]. - The company redeemed the principal of RMB 40 million on July 24, 2025, and received investment income of RMB 669,166.66 [1].

Group 1: Investment Trends - The decline in bank deposit rates has led many individuals to seek alternative investment options, such as bond funds and ETFs, as traditional savings methods become less effective [3][4][5] - A significant portion of high-net-worth individuals lacks the expertise to manage their wealth effectively, often relying on banks for asset management [4][5] - The average annualized return for index funds in 2023 was 10.33%, compared to only 3.21% for actively managed equity funds, indicating that passive investment strategies may yield better results [6] Group 2: Alternative Investments - There is a growing interest among younger generations in alternative assets, with a notable decrease in cash allocation from 37% to 22% among Gen Z investors [9][10] - Gold has seen a substantial price increase, rising over 25% in the first half of the year, making it an attractive option for risk diversification [9][10] - The willingness of Chinese investors to diversify into global assets is increasing, with over half expressing interest in allocating to overseas investments [10]

Group 1 - Company Koyuan Smart (科远智慧) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Koyuan Smart Energy Investment Co., Ltd., received a civil lawsuit from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (浦发银行) Nantong Branch, claiming a compensation of 295 million yuan for damages [1] - The lawsuit alleges that both the individual defendant and the subsidiary were at fault during the deposit operations, causing harm to the bank's civil rights [1] - The court date for the case has not yet been determined [1] Group 2 - Koyuan Smart's subsidiary has been involved in a legal dispute regarding a deposit contract with the bank, with a court ruling on December 31, 2024, ordering the bank to pay back the principal and overdue interest [2] - As of the announcement date, the subsidiary has not received any payments from the bank, leading to a request for compulsory execution filed on July 4, 2025 [2] - The execution cases have been registered, and the bank has been unable to settle the debts as per the legal ruling [2] Group 3 - The subsidiary had invested 40 million yuan in a fixed deposit with the bank, which was supposed to mature on November 10, 2021, but was not redeemed due to a pledge related to another company [3][4] - The company was unaware of the pledge and has requested the bank to provide valid proof of the transaction [3][4] - As of the date of the lawsuit, a total of 160 million yuan in deposits had not been paid by the bank, with no response from the bank regarding the matter [5] Group 4 - The bank's performance has been declining, with a reported revenue of 170.748 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, placing it fourth among national joint-stock commercial banks [7][8] - The bank's net profit for 2024 was reported at 45.257 billion yuan, ranking fourth as well [9][10] - The bank's revenue has been on a downward trend for four consecutive years, with a significant drop from 196.384 billion yuan in 2020 to 170.748 billion yuan in 2024 [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of social insurance as a fundamental pillar for ensuring a secure retirement, especially in the context of an aging population [1][11] - It compares the benefits of social insurance against personal savings, highlighting that relying solely on personal savings may not be sufficient for a comfortable retirement [11] Summary by Sections Social Insurance vs. Personal Savings - The article discusses the dilemma faced by workers like Liu, who must decide whether to contribute to social insurance or save money independently [1] - It notes that while social insurance contributions may seem like a reduction in disposable income, they provide significant future benefits [1][2] Financial Analysis of Contributions - A detailed financial analysis shows that if Liu saves 1500 yuan monthly for 15 years, he would accumulate approximately 284,278 yuan, which may not be enough to cover living expenses in retirement [2][3] - In contrast, contributing to social insurance would result in a total of 302,400 yuan in his pension account after 15 years, significantly enhancing his retirement security [3][4] Pension Calculation - The article outlines the pension calculation formula, indicating that Liu could receive a monthly pension of 3,543 yuan, which would last for his lifetime, compared to the limited duration of personal savings [4][11] - It highlights the annual adjustment mechanism for pensions, which provides additional security against inflation [4][5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Concerns about the sustainability of the social insurance fund are addressed, with data showing a substantial surplus in the fund, ensuring its ability to meet obligations at least until 2035 [5][8] Additional Benefits of Social Insurance - The article emphasizes that social insurance includes not only pension benefits but also medical and unemployment insurance, which are crucial for financial security [6][11] - It contrasts the risk-sharing nature of social insurance with the individual risk borne by personal savings, particularly in the face of health crises [6][11] Recommendations for Retirement Planning - A multi-pillar approach to retirement planning is recommended, combining social insurance, commercial insurance, and personal savings to achieve a balanced and secure retirement [9][10] - The article suggests that individuals should prioritize social insurance contributions while also considering commercial insurance and investment options to enhance their retirement funds [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article warns against blindly choosing fixed-term deposits in the coming years due to four significant risks that could undermine their value and effectiveness as a savings tool [1]. Group 1: Risks of Fixed-Term Deposits - Deposit returns are lagging behind inflation, leading to a gradual decline in purchasing power [3]. - The current interest rates for fixed-term deposits are at historical lows, making it increasingly difficult to rely on deposit interest for living expenses [4]. - Fixed-term deposits have poor liquidity, resulting in substantial interest losses if funds are needed before maturity [6]. - Long-term holding of fixed-term deposits may cause investors to miss out on better investment opportunities, such as government bonds or structured deposits [7]. Group 2: Advantages of Fixed-Term Deposits - Fixed-term deposits can provide a safety net for inexperienced investors, ensuring principal protection against market volatility [7]. - They allow for a strategic pause in investment activity, enabling investors to wait for more favorable market conditions [7]. - The choice of financial strategy should be based on individual risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment goals, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making [8].

Core Points - The issuance of new savings bonds has seen a decrease in interest rates, with the 3-year bond now at 1.63% and the 5-year bond at 1.7%, down by 30 basis points compared to earlier months [1][2] - The recent trend shows that despite the decline in savings bond rates, they still offer better returns compared to traditional bank deposit rates, which have also been reduced [2][7] - The popularity of savings bonds among younger investors is increasing, with many expressing interest in purchasing them despite the lower rates compared to previous offerings [4][5] Summary by Sections Issuance and Rates - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of the third and fourth phases of savings bonds from June 10 to June 19, 2025, with maximum issuance amounts of 250 billion yuan each [1] - The interest rates for the bonds have decreased significantly from previous months, with the 3-year bond previously at 1.93% and the 5-year bond at 2% [2][3] Market Comparison - Current bank deposit rates have been lowered, with major banks offering 3-year and 5-year rates at 1.25% and 1.3% respectively, making savings bonds more attractive [7][8] - Many investors are finding that local banks offer higher deposit rates compared to savings bonds, indicating a competitive market for savings products [9] Investor Sentiment - Younger investors are increasingly interested in savings bonds, with discussions on social media about purchasing strategies, indicating a shift in investment preferences [4][5] - The flexible interest payment structure of electronic savings bonds is appealing to investors compared to traditional bank deposit terms [5]