Core Investment Logic - The company's core product, the freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells), is recognized as the "gold standard vaccine" by the World Health Organization (WHO), demonstrating significant advantages in safety and immunogenicity [1] - The domestic rabies vaccine market is primarily dominated by Vero cell vaccines, indicating a substantial replacement opportunity for human diploid vaccines, which currently have low penetration [1] - The rabies disease has a high fatality rate, creating a strong demand for vaccination, thus providing a stable sales foundation for the product [1] - Since its listing in 2014, the company has sold over 30 million doses, covering all 31 provincial regions in China [1] - Frost & Sullivan predicts that the market size for human diploid rabies vaccines could reach approximately 10.18 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - The company's performance decline is gradually narrowing, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of -55.70%/-19.49%/+11.54% year-on-year [1] - The company has resumed production of the ACYW135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, which has been exported to 10 countries, potentially driving continuous performance improvement [1] Research and Development Pipeline - The company's lead six-valent norovirus vaccine is one of the highest-priced norovirus vaccines currently in development globally, with broad protection against mainstream strains (e.g., GI.1, GII.2) [2] - The vaccine has received clinical trial approvals in Australia, the United States, and China, showcasing recognized technical barriers [2] - In January 2024, the company signed an exclusive licensing agreement with HilleVax for overseas rights, receiving an upfront payment of $15 million and potential milestone payments up to $255.5 million, along with sales royalties [2] - This makes the company the only domestic entity to achieve a license-out for a norovirus vaccine, highlighting the global value of its innovative products [2] - Frost & Sullivan forecasts that the norovirus vaccine market could grow from 1.53 billion yuan to 22.93 billion yuan from 2026 to 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of 71.85% [2] - This product is expected to significantly contribute to the company's future revenue, facilitating a strategic transition from a single rabies vaccine leader to a multi-category vaccine platform [2] Control Change and Strategic Empowerment - On November 7, 2025, the company completed a change in control, with Shanghai Wankexin Biotechnology becoming the controlling shareholder, holding 21.91% of shares and 29.99% of voting rights [3] - This marks the first instance of a private equity fund controlling a listed company in the vaccine industry through a "fund + industry" model, providing a strategic template for collaboration [3] - The expected benefits from this control change include enhanced financing efficiency, innovation in research and development, channel expansion, and globalization [3] - The original shareholders have committed to a net profit of no less than 728 million yuan from 2025 to 2026, along with a minimum of 260 million yuan in R&D investment, ensuring robust support for performance growth and pipeline advancement [3][4] - The company is positioned to leverage the governance optimization and resource synergy from the control change, making it a core focus for medium to long-term investment [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported a narrowing decline in performance, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of -55.70%/-19.49%/+11.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 189 million yuan for the same period [4] - The original controlling shareholder's profit commitment provides a buffer for the company, with projected revenues of 1.299 billion yuan, 1.530 billion yuan, and 1.658 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -9.25%, 17.76%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - The projected net profits for the same period are 301 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 638 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -24.60%, 66.77%, and 27.26% respectively [4] - The company is covered with a recommendation rating, reflecting the anticipated recovery in performance and the strategic opportunities arising from the control change [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][11][28] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive driven by policy, demand, and technology [10][11][28][30] - Recent regulatory updates, such as the revised vaccine circulation quality supervision measures in Shandong Province, highlight ongoing improvements in vaccine safety mechanisms and regulatory frameworks [6][10] - The approval of innovative vaccines, like the freeze-dried Hib vaccine, reflects the continuous progress of domestic vaccine companies [6][10] Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 0.78% increase last week, with a cumulative decline of 4.83% since the beginning of 2025 [7][13] - The relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 3% over the past month and 30% over the past year [6][9] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 100.69X, with a year-to-date maximum of 111.89X and a minimum of 28.67X, indicating a slight increase from the previous period [9][22] - The PB (lf) stands at 1.85X, with a year-to-date maximum of 2.29X and a minimum of 1.69X, reflecting a stable valuation range [9][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product lines, recommending companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biotech for their innovation and market positioning [10][11][30]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ai Mei Vaccine, is poised for significant growth with the upcoming commercialization of key vaccine products and a reduction in R&D expenses, leading to a strong financial outlook for 2025 and beyond [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Ai Mei Vaccine reported stable revenue for the first half of 2025, supported by the impending launch of four major vaccine products [1] - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2026, with sales projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 2: Product Development - Four major vaccine products are nearing commercialization: - The registration application for the updated rabies vaccine has been accepted - The 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine has applied for registration and completed on-site verification - The 23-valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine has completed Phase III clinical serum testing and is entering the statistical unblinding phase - The updated high-efficiency diploid rabies vaccine is in Phase III clinical trials, with a registration application expected in 2026 [1] - The company has 20 vaccine products in development across 12 disease areas, with 23 clinical approvals and 24 ongoing clinical trials, including 7 innovative Class 1 vaccines [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - Ai Mei Vaccine has successfully entered the African market with its quadrivalent meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine and is registering in Central Asia - The rabies vaccine has made its debut in the Central American market - The hepatitis B vaccine is actively undergoing registration processes in Southeast Asia, while the hepatitis A vaccine is progressing in South Asia [1]