白酒板块双节渠道反馈总结 20251008 摘要 双节期间白酒市场的整体表现如何？ 双节期间白酒市场的整体表现符合节前预期。传统经销商的动销下滑了 20%至 25%，价盘保持相对平稳，飞天茅台价格在 1,800 元左右波动，五粮液价格在 810 至 820 元之间波动。总体来看，白酒市场没有出现显著的惊喜或惊吓，基 本沿着节前反馈趋势发展。 从不同场景来看，各类白酒消费情况如何？ 宴席场景的反馈相对较好，用酒量预计小幅下滑。居民端反馈分化，不同区域 表现不一，总体与大盘下滑幅度类似，大约为 20%。泛商务招待场景表现较差， 消化幅度预计超过 30%。礼赠场景则偏刚性，没有统一的大幅下降反馈。 各品牌和 SKU 层面的表现如何？ 今年各品牌没有特别出彩的，但部分 SKU 释放出较好的态势。宴席型产品，如 地产酒 100~300 元价格带内单品（如古 8、古 16、梦 3 等）受益于宴席红利， 全国化单品如红花郎 10、1,618 也因酱酒政策力度大而表现良好。此外，以价 格打出性价比的单品，如茅台 1,935，在双节期间动销反馈不错。 高端白酒内部不同产品的顺位和价格变化情况如何？ 宴席场景白酒消费表现相对较好 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall trend in the liquor industry is declining, with a two-digit percentage drop observed in April 2025. However, Moutai has shown strong performance amidst this downturn, particularly with its Feitian series maintaining reasonable inventory levels. This indicates effective demand release through price adjustments and marketing strategy changes [11][12][59]. Key Points on Moutai - Moutai is balancing revenue and market prices by adjusting product structure and enhancing channel management. The Feitian Moutai remains stable, while the Rooster Moutai has increased supply quotas and relaxed reporting restrictions for distributors [1][3]. - In 2025, Moutai's distribution channels progressed rapidly, completing approximately 50% of the total Feitian volume from January to April, with a contract plan reaching 48%. This is a 10 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [5]. - Moutai's pricing is expected to fluctuate between 2,100 and 2,200 yuan in the second quarter of 2025, with a low probability of dropping below 2,000 yuan [2][13]. - Moutai has successfully attracted new customer groups, particularly for non-business consumption, which has helped maintain its market position despite overall industry weakness [7][8]. Competitor Analysis - **Wuliangye**: The batch price remains stable at 915-920 yuan, but slow sales due to insufficient market demand have led to significant inventory pressure. The company has committed to not letting distributors incur losses, but the market's trust has diminished [4][21]. - **Guojiao 1573**: The batch price for high-alcohol liquor is 860 yuan and for low-alcohol liquor is 610 yuan. The low-alcohol segment is performing better in the Shandong market, with a strong sales strategy involving annual volume agreements with distributors [22][23]. Market Dynamics - The overall liquor market's shipment pace has increased in 2025, yet prices remain stable due to controlled shipment volumes and effective communication with distributors [6]. - The demand for liquor during the May Day holiday was not ideal, with Moutai's box price ranging from 2,100 to 2,170 yuan, reflecting weak market demand [14][15]. - Predictions for upcoming holidays like Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival are cautious, with expectations of low gifting demand due to weak business activities [16]. Inventory and Sales Strategies - Moutai's inventory levels are low, typically less than a month for distributors, indicating tight supply management [31]. - Wuliangye's inventory situation is concerning, with many distributors facing financial losses and a lack of trust in the brand leading to slow sales [21][18]. - Guojiao 1573 has a relatively high inventory level, with low-alcohol products dominating the market [22]. Conclusion - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with Moutai managing to navigate these through strategic adjustments and effective channel management. Competitors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 are struggling with inventory and market trust issues, highlighting the competitive pressures within the industry.