Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for liquor consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is facing a "not-so-strong peak" situation this year, despite aggressive discounting strategies in the market. Overall consumption remains weak, although high-end liquor leader Kweichow Moutai shows significant sales recovery, standing out in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The liquor market has not experienced the expected sales surge, with many distributors reporting that sales are flat or slightly down compared to last year, despite heavy promotions [1][2]. - The price competition is intense, with Kweichow Moutai's wholesale price recently dropping below 1800 yuan, reaching a new low of 1740 yuan per bottle, down over 20% from the beginning of the year [1][2]. - Most mid-to-high-end liquor brands are also reducing prices, with some discounts exceeding 50 yuan, but this has not led to the expected customer rush seen in previous years [2][4]. Group 2: Kweichow Moutai's Performance - In contrast to the overall market, Kweichow Moutai has shown a remarkable performance, with sales volume increasing significantly in various regions, even as the overall liquor sales are down by approximately 15% to 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has communicated positive signals to the market, indicating a significant increase in terminal sales since the end of August, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with a mild recovery in sales compared to previous months, but still showing weakness year-on-year [6]. - The demand for top-tier liquor has rebounded due to factors such as holiday stocking, channel subsidies, and e-commerce promotions, although overall market sales expectations remain slightly down [6]. - The industry is characterized by structural differentiation, where high-end brands like Moutai exhibit strong resilience against market pressures, while mass-market products face challenges [5][6].