Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is undergoing significant changes as the price of Moutai has dropped below 1700 yuan for the first time, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer behavior [1][3]. Price Trends - Moutai's wholesale price fell to 1690 yuan on October 28, marking a 31% decline from its peak earlier in the year [1][3]. - The price drop began on June 11, 2025, with Moutai's price falling from 2000 yuan to below 1800 yuan within a few weeks, and eventually reaching a new low of 1690 yuan [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai's price is not an isolated incident; other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao have also seen significant price drops of 18% and 22%, respectively [5]. - High inventory levels and a decrease in consumer demand have pressured distributors, with inventory turnover extending from 45 days to 90 days [7]. Consumer Behavior - The market for business banquets has shrunk by 35% compared to the previous year, and the proportion of gift channels has decreased from 40% to 28% [7]. - There is a notable decline in personal stockpiling of liquor, leading to increased market pressure from individual investors selling off their holdings [7]. Competitive Landscape - The rise of alternative beverages, such as imported wines and single malt whiskies, has impacted the loyalty of younger consumers towards traditional liquor [7]. - Major brands are adapting by exploring new price segments, with Wuliangye focusing on the 800-1200 yuan range and regional brands enhancing their local market presence [8]. Financial Implications - The annualized investment return for Moutai has dropped from 15% to -8% over the past three years, leading to a withdrawal of speculative investors [7]. - The valuation framework for the white liquor sector is being recalibrated as Moutai's price falls below 1700 yuan, challenging the previous assumption that a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times was a floor [8]. Future Outlook - Key indicators for the market's trajectory include inventory digestion rates, potential price support measures from Moutai, and consumer confidence levels in the lead-up to the New Year [8].