地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/09 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.40%报 4060.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 48.44 美元/盎司。美联储会议纪要显示官员对货币 政策路径存在分歧，为黄金提供支撑。美国政府停摆及财政赤字问题加剧避险 需求，国际贸易紧张局势也利好黄金。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.92 ...

距离"史上最长"的黄金周只剩最后一天。 今年国庆和中秋撞在一起，拼出了8天超长假期，按理说，这样的假期本该带来双倍热闹、双倍消费高峰，但今年的市场却有些反常，不少迹象都让人看不 太懂。 以前有些东西特别贵，不是因为东西本身多好，而是因为它代表了身份、面子和社交地位，喝好酒、送好礼，图的不是口感，而是那份"撑场面"的感觉。 但今年，这些"带光环"的消费品光环开始掉了，消费者更看重实实在在的价值，面子这块招牌正在打折。 最明显的例子就是高端白酒，过去，茅台、五粮液简直是饭局上的硬通货，谁手里有货都得加价才能拿到，飞天茅台的散瓶价最高飙到两千块，五粮液的普 五也常年在千元以上。 可今年形势急转直下，飞天茅台跌到1740元，比年初少了近300块，五粮液甚至直接跌破900元，北京有个李姓经销商手里压了500箱茅台，原来客户追着他 要，现在反过来他要一家家打电话推销，还得给优惠。 之所以会这样，主要是因为"喝白酒就是社交"的时代过去了，90后、00后这批年轻人根本不爱喝那种辛辣刺激的酒，他们喜欢的是轻松愉快的"微醺"，果 酒、预调鸡尾酒才是他们的心头好。 而年纪大的一辈，随着健康意识提高，也不愿意硬拼酒，开始选择黄酒、啤 ...

据"君品习酒"微信公众号消息，9月27日至28日，习酒集团董事长汪地强到陕西、天津市场走访调研。 此前9月初，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已分别前往河南、山东、陕西、浙江、北京、重庆、云南、 辽宁、吉林、黑龙江和贵州省内等市场开展调研。 习酒集团董事长汪地强近日赴陕西、天津市场走访调研，此前，汪地强与习酒集团总经理万波已深入调 研河南、山东等全国十余个重点市场。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，动作不同寻常…… 密集调研背后 君品习酒五年批价跌幅最大 图片来源："君品习酒"微信公众号 据悉，此次系列调研旨在"深入了解市场前沿动态"，进一步分析形势、找准问题、统一思想、凝聚共 识，推动习酒市场营销迈上新台阶。 习酒高层如此密集走访一线，折射出企业应对市场压力的紧迫与深意。中国酒业协会联合毕马威发布的 《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，在T9白酒品牌中，君品习酒近五年批发价格累计跌幅达 39.82%，为该阵营中跌幅最大的单品之一。数据显示，其批价从2021年6月的955元/瓶，持续下行至目 前约683元/瓶。（注：报告原文相关计算存在误差，但君品习酒在T9品牌中价格跌幅最大的情况未 变。） 此次纳入对比的其他主流 ...

泸州老窖 20250926 摘要 受高度国窖销量下滑影响，公司股价回调，但低度国窖在优势区域表现 良好，预计 2024 年收入达百亿，对整体增长影响有限。 泸州老窖在大众价位产品（特区系列、新二区）积极布局，覆盖 100- 400 元价格带，有望缓解增长压力，触达更多大众消费者。 公司通过精细化渠道运作和灵活的价格管控策略应对市场变化，稳定高 度国窖价格，并积极布局专精特新等 KOL 渠道。 资本市场对泸州老窖估值偏低，考虑到公司在产品和渠道方面的竞争力， 以及与汾酒的估值差距，存在 20%-30%的上行空间。 面对行业需求低迷，公司灵活调整管理和渠道管控，增加过程考核权重， 提高费用补贴，修复厂商关系，为长期发展蓄势。 公司核心竞争优势在于组织和渠道管理，通过深度改革建立组织壁垒， 并依靠稳固的大单品量价势能提升渠道效率。 数字化转型提升了公司渠道和消费者数据管理效率，使费用兑付更加及 时，并为个性化服务和产品迭代提供数据支持。 资本市场对泸州老窖估值偏低是否合理？ 资本市场对泸州老窖估值偏低存在一定偏颇。目前大家对于公司全年的利润下 降 10%左右已有充分预期，但从公司多方位优势来看，现在仍处于一个比较低 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," has significantly declined due to multiple interrelated factors, leading to a historical low in wholesale prices and a shift in consumer behavior [1][5][18] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - Since June 2024, the wholesale price of Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a decline of over 20% from the previous price of 2220 RMB [1] - The market is experiencing a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with an estimated 120 million bottles of Moutai in circulation and new production capacity adding to the inventory [6] - The introduction of strict alcohol prohibition policies has drastically reduced the consumption of Moutai in government settings, decreasing its market share from 40% in 2012 to less than 0.8% [5] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming Moutai, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7] - The demand for Moutai as a gift has plummeted from 35% to 12%, while alternative beverages like whiskey and low-alcohol drinks are gaining popularity among younger consumers [7] Group 3: Impact of E-commerce and Financial Attributes - E-commerce platforms have disrupted traditional pricing structures, with aggressive pricing strategies leading to a significant drop in Moutai's market price [8][11] - The annualized return on Moutai has fallen below 5%, down from 18% between 2020 and 2024, causing investors to seek more stable assets [8] Group 4: Distributor Challenges and Industry Reactions - Distributors are facing unprecedented survival challenges, with some reporting losses of 500 RMB per bottle sold, leading to a crisis in the distribution network [10] - The price collapse has triggered a domino effect, causing other premium brands to lower their prices, with notable declines in brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [10] Group 5: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Moutai is attempting to stabilize prices through various strategies, including increasing direct sales and targeting younger consumers with new product lines [17] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 5.1 billion RMB in 2024, a 19.27% increase year-on-year [17] - The ongoing price adjustments reflect a re-evaluation of Moutai's position as a luxury item versus its fundamental value as a consumer product [18]

文｜酒讯 方圆 编辑｜念祎 编者按：随着酒业调整的持续深入，市场竞争愈发激烈，精准把握市场趋势已成为酒企发展的必备技 能。酒讯将携飞瓜数据周期性观察部分电商平台酒类消费数据，对市场需求进行及时洞察，以期为企业 发展战略、销售策略调整提供数据参考和事实依据。 8月，对于酒水价格体系而言，是一场硬仗。 即时零售价格战进入白热化阶段，进一步拉低酒水产品均价。从高端的飞天茅台、普五，到次高端的洋 河M6+、窖藏1988，乃至国台国标、泸州老窖特曲，这些市场上各价格带的热销爆款，在即时零售平台 上的售价均较上月进一步下探。 即时零售这种"击穿底价"势头正持续向整个酒类市场扩散。酒讯携手飞瓜数据对快手8月酒水销售情况 进行统计了解到，消费者在进行酒水消费时的价格倾向，已然与即时零售的低价氛围形成共振。 02 啤酒：大众与小众势均力敌 01 白酒：名酒"蓝海"待开发 在快手这样的下沉主阵地，白酒消费展现出更明显的"向下"倾向。 来自飞瓜数据的统计显示，快手8月白酒销售价格带分布中，100-800元价格区间销量占白酒品类的比例 较上月有所下降，其中，100-300元、300-500元、500-800元价格区间分别占比38.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector has shown a remarkable upward trend, with the index rising over 2%, driven by significant stock performances from companies like Jinhui Liquor and Shede Liquor, despite underlying inventory pressures that equate to 3 to 6 months of sales [1][2][4]. Market Performance - On August 29, the white liquor stocks surged, with the Tonghuashun white liquor index surpassing a 2% increase. Jinhui Liquor led with over a 6% rise, while Shede Liquor and Gujing Gongjiu followed with increases of over 4% [2]. - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai also demonstrated resilience, with a 1.36% increase, maintaining a strong position above the 1,000 yuan mark [2]. Fund Movements - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly increased its holdings in the white liquor ETF by 121 million shares in the first half of the year, raising its total to 581 million shares, making it the third-largest holder of this ETF [4]. - The overall market performance in August saw the Tonghuashun white liquor index accumulate a rise of over 13% [4]. Valuation and Policy Support - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the white liquor sector stands at 19.83, marking a near ten-year low, with individual companies like Guizhou Moutai at a dynamic PE of 24 and Wuliangye at 17, both below historical averages, indicating significant valuation appeal [6]. - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing unreasonable restrictions on the liquor industry have provided positive signals for the market [6]. Fundamental Improvements and Seasonal Recovery - There are signs of marginal improvement in the fundamentals, particularly with the recovery of banquet and gift consumption since late July, especially in the sub-300 yuan price range [7]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to catalyze demand, enhancing sales momentum [7]. Changing Fund Preferences and Shareholder Returns - Fund preferences are shifting as leading liquor companies increase dividend rates and implement stock buybacks, with dividend yields for major firms exceeding 3.5%, appealing to long-term investors seeking stable returns [10]. Ongoing Challenges - Despite positive market signals, underlying issues such as weak consumer spending persist, with a reported 2.1% year-on-year growth in per capita consumption expenditure in Q1 2025, impacting sales, particularly in high-end products [11]. - Inventory levels remain a significant challenge, with some mainstream brands holding stock equivalent to 3 to 6 months of normal sales, and production figures showing a 5.8% decline year-on-year [11]. - Price discrepancies continue, with major products like Wuliangye's mainstream offerings trading at 12.5% below factory prices, affecting profit margins for distributors [12]. Institutional Perspectives and Future Outlook - Market consensus among institutions shows a belief in a gradual recovery for the white liquor industry, with improved sales and pricing indicators suggesting potential for recovery [13]. - If sales data during the Mid-Autumn Festival exceeds expectations, the mid-range liquor segment may experience a rebound [15]. - Long-term prospects remain strong due to the robust business models of leading companies, although economic stabilization and inventory reduction will take time to materialize [15].

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting systemic challenges faced by leading companies in the liquor industry during a deep adjustment period [1][16]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.32%, and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% [1][3]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the downturn in the liquor sales market, leading to reduced sales volume and income [3][5]. - Operating cash flow decreased by 69.85% to 616 million yuan, indicating cash flow pressure due to slower sales collections and reduced advance payments [5]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to industry changes, the management initiated a "rest and recuperation" strategy starting in 2024, aiming to stabilize prices and assist channels in inventory reduction [6][8]. - The company reduced production by 51.63% and inventory by 34%, but the inventory turnover days remained high at 944.88 days, indicating challenges in managing stock levels [8]. Market Position and Competition - Yanghe's product structure is under pressure from both high-end and mass markets, with significant price drops in its premium products, reflecting a lack of brand recognition compared to competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye [9][20]. - The company faces challenges in the mass market, with ordinary liquor revenue declining by 27.24%, which is significantly higher than the industry average [13][20]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao gaining market share through effective strategies, further squeezing Yanghe's market space [13][20]. Consumer Trends and Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing a profound transformation from rapid growth to high-quality development, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and changing consumer demands [16][18]. - The rise of the younger generation as consumers is driving diverse consumption habits, which Yanghe has struggled to adapt to, particularly in terms of product innovation and marketing strategies [11][18]. - The mid-range price segment (300-800 yuan) is particularly affected, with Yanghe's core product series experiencing a revenue decline of 39.2%, significantly above the industry average [18][20]. Future Outlook - Yanghe's future is challenged by its position in the market, lacking the premium pricing power of Moutai and the rapid market penetration of competitors like Fenjiu [20]. - The company's ability to navigate through quality upgrades, product innovation, and channel restructuring will be crucial for its survival and potential return to the top tier of the industry [20].

Group 1 - The consumer market faced unprecedented challenges in the first half of the year, with 19 out of 23 leading consumer companies reporting losses, affecting sectors like liquor, snacks, and dairy [2] - High-end liquor brands are experiencing significant declines, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu reporting a 93% drop in net profit and a 43% decrease in revenue, while Moutai's bottle price fell from 3000 yuan to 1780 yuan [4][5] - The demand for business banquets has decreased by 80%, leading to inventory issues and management instability within liquor companies, with some experiencing up to 900 days of inventory [4][5] Group 2 - The snack industry is also heavily impacted, with companies like Qiaqia Foods seeing a 76% drop in net profit due to external factors like weather and rising costs, alongside a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards discount stores and live-streaming sales [5][7] - Liuyin Pupu reported a direct loss of 100 million yuan in the first half of the year, facing a "double decline" in both sales and prices, leading to store closures and significant price cuts [5][7] - The overall consumer sentiment remains weak, with major shareholders of companies like Liuyin Pupu and Qiaqia selling off stakes, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [9] Group 3 - Liquor companies are struggling with strategic shifts towards low-alcohol products, facing technical challenges and lower profit margins compared to high-alcohol products [7][8] - Qiaqia's attempts to expand into Southeast Asia and introduce new products have not yielded significant results, highlighting difficulties in adapting to market changes [8] - The ongoing consumer downturn is affecting not only listed companies but also small businesses, with the duration and depth of this downturn remaining uncertain [9]