2026年春节酒饮消费旺季正式收官，在经历了长达数年的调整与复苏之后，今年的酒水市场并未迎来市场期待中的全面普涨、全线飘红，反而上演了极度 分化、冷热不均的行业分化新格局。 随着商务活动回暖、消费信心逐步修复，高端白酒（800元以上）所具备的品牌价值、礼赠属性与保值功能，在今年春节再次被市场放大。 茅台批价稳步回升，终端需求持续旺盛，成为礼赠市场与商务消费的绝对主力。2026年飞天茅台散瓶批价也从年初的1500元回升至1650元，原箱价稳定在 1700元左右。 高端持续坚挺、次高端集体承压、大众酒全面爆发——三者之间的反差之大，堪称近年来春节市场之最。 以古井贡酒为例，其古5、古8在宴席和大众消费支撑下，动销仍然出现个位数下滑；古20等产品因商务宴请减少，下滑幅度更是超两成；今世缘百元价位 的淡雅、柔雅系列有所增长，而其核心次高端产品"四开"动销偏弱。 为了争夺有限的市场份额，不少次高端品牌被迫开启降价、促销、买赠等让利模式，虽然短期拉动了销量，却严重压缩了经销商利润，进一步加剧价格体 系混乱。价格倒挂、库存高企、竞争白热化，几乎成为这一价位带的集体标签。 五粮液普五批价也从760元/瓶回升至800元区间，国 ...

2026年马年春节作为假期延长后的首个春节，叠加消费市场持续回暖的利好态势，成为检验酒类产业转型成效、洞察消费趋势变革的关键窗口。中国酒业 协会结合全国多地市场调研、渠道反馈及第三方数据监测发现，马年春节酒类消费市场呈现"结构分化、理性升级、场景多元、品质为王"的鲜明特征，高 端酒稳健承压、大众酒韧性凸显、特色酒多点突破，行业正从"规模扩张"向"质效提升"稳步迈进，在团圆年味中书写高质量发展的新答卷。 一、消费核心转向：理性回归主导，品质需求凸显 马年春节，酒类消费彻底告别"盲目攀比、过度消费"的旧模式，"少喝、喝好、喝对"成为主流共识，消费者决策更趋理性，品质与性价比成为核心考量因 素，这也与行业长期"由规模向质量的转型方向高度契合。 从消费行为来看，消费者主权时代特征愈发明显，开瓶率取代渠道库存成为衡量品牌健康度的核心指标，头部酒企纷纷通过精准投放、扫码促销等措施， 将资源集中于促进终端开瓶，推动行业增长引擎切换至真实消费。调研显示，春节期间多数消费者饮酒频次较往年有所减少，但对酒体品质、酿造工艺的 关注度显著提升。 价格带表现呈现清晰的"两极稳健、中端承压"格局：100元以下光瓶酒、口粮酒销量同比增长； ...

2月24日，农历马年首个交易日。虽然大盘飘红，但白酒板块却并未迎来"开门红"。万得白酒指数 （866051）早盘高开，随后震荡走低，截至收盘下跌1.32%，多只个股跌幅超过2%。拉长时间看，年初 至今该指数已累计回调3.67%。 尽管行业整体仍处在需求偏弱、渠道库存承压的调整期，但在多家投资机构看来，白酒板块已步入周期 底部区域，对2026年迎来边际修复持乐观态度。也有分析认为，以茅台为代表的超高端品牌，凭借稳健 的基本面和近期批价企稳回升的走势，正成为市场信心的核心锚点。 与此同时，行业分化将愈发显著。 国泰海通证券訾猛团队认为，白酒行业已进入本轮周期底部，渠道情绪已观察到修复迹象，景气改善、 批价上涨、库存去化等边际变化以及宏观政策对股价有较强催化。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者在近期的走访中也感受到市场逐步企稳的迹象。一家酒类连锁零售机构 终端店负责人告诉记者，和往年相比，销售还略有增加。茅台、五粮液、国窖1573和往年差不多，红花 郎15明显比往年卖得好。 动销的边际改善，最终也将传导至价格端。第三方报价平台显示，飞天茅台原箱当前市场批价约1700 元/瓶，较2月初上涨70元/瓶，较年初上涨约150元 ...

Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor market has declined compared to previous years, but the high-end liquor market prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai [2][5] - Many institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the liquor industry in the second half of 2026, despite current market caution from liquor merchants [2][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival liquor market is expected to be the "coldest" in history, with a psychological expectation of this among industry players [3] - There is a noticeable shift in consumption habits, with fewer people attending gatherings and a decrease in the number of tables at banquets [3] - Sales of liquor are reported to have declined by 10% to 20% across multiple provinces during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] Group 2: Price Stability - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai around 1700 yuan per bottle, up approximately 150 yuan from the end of 2025 [5] - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stability, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 yuan and above 800 yuan are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [6] - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [6] - The stabilization of high-end liquor prices is seen as a signal of industry bottoming out, but further recovery depends on the restoration of business dining and overall economic support for high-end consumption [6]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downturn in demand, particularly for the 2026 Spring Festival, but high-end liquor prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai's influence [1][6]. Market Overview - Despite concerns about the 2026 Spring Festival being the "coldest" for the white liquor market, several institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The overall demand for white liquor has declined compared to previous years, with many retailers adopting a wait-and-see approach for the current market [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer habits have shifted towards more rational spending, with a decrease in the number of tables and guests at banquets, now typically not exceeding eight people [2]. - E-commerce has diverted some traditional offline demand, allowing consumers to purchase liquor quickly even during the Spring Festival [1]. Price Trends - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai remaining around 1,700 RMB per bottle, up approximately 150 RMB from the end of 2025 [6]. - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stabilization, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end market [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 RMB and above 800 RMB are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [7]. - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the high-end liquor market's stabilization is a sign of industry recovery, although the market is still in a fragile state [7][8]. - The recovery of business banquets and the overall economic environment will be crucial for supporting high-end consumption in the future [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, specifically Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, while suggesting an increase in holdings for Yingjia Gongjiu [8][28]. Core Insights - The overall sales decline in the industry before the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, with Moutai showing leading performance. The industry is experiencing a double-digit sales decline, but demand is gradually recovering as the Spring Festival approaches. The pressure on channels is easing, and confidence in the industry is expected to improve [1][12]. - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in demand from traditional channels. The report anticipates a net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [1][12]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline. The next high-end price segment is under significant pressure [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Sales Feedback - The report summarizes feedback from various regions, indicating that the overall sales decline is in line with expectations. Moutai's performance is notably strong, with double-digit growth in sales volume. Other brands, such as Wuliangye, show regional sales differentiation, particularly in areas like Sichuan, where sales have accelerated due to previous inventory control measures [1][12][15]. 2. Core Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are expected to continue growing, with a current average delivery progress exceeding 30%. The report notes that Moutai's inventory is low, and the market remains in a supply-demand imbalance, supporting price stability [24][28]. - Wuliangye's sales are stable, with delivery progress around 35-40%. The report indicates that the brand's performance is slightly better than last year, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [24][28]. - Luzhou Laojiao is experiencing slower sales, with delivery progress below 20%. The brand's high-end products are facing a decline in demand, while lower-end products still show some demand [25][28]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales are performing better than the industry average, with a stable inventory situation and continued growth in certain products [25][28]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is expected to see a slight decline in sales, but certain products are performing relatively well [26][28]. 3. Industry Holdings Analysis - The report notes that institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with a significant decrease in the proportion of active fund holdings in the liquor sector. This trend indicates a potential for recovery as the market stabilizes [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly recommending Moutai and other consumer goods as cyclical investments [15][17]. Core Insights - Moutai continues to show strong performance, with demand recovery following the alcohol ban and a significant increase in sales volume exceeding expectations. The price of Moutai has recently surged to 1700 RMB [2][15]. - The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, which aligns with expectations. However, Moutai's performance remains robust, indicating a strong market position [15]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the dining chain sector, particularly in the condiment and beer segments, driven by policy catalysts and positive holiday consumption data [15][17]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai's sales performance is expected to be strong, with a significant portion of its annual quota being allocated in the first quarter. The demand for non-standard products remains high, while Wuliangye's sales show mixed results [3][11]. - The report notes that Wuliangye's distributors are less willing to make payments, with this year's signing plans being only half of last year's [3][12]. - Other brands like Jinshiyuan and Yanghe are experiencing sales declines, with Jinshiyuan performing better than Yanghe in certain markets [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of consumer goods, particularly in the dining chain sector, and suggests increasing recommendations for companies like Chongqing Beer and Qianhe Flavor Industry, which are expected to see improved performance [15][17]. - The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a significant position in Moutai and recommends other brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye, which are expected to perform better than the industry average [17]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is projected to face challenges, with overall sales expected to decline. However, Moutai's strong market presence and pricing power provide a buffer against these challenges [2][15]. - The report indicates that the industry is at a historical low in institutional holdings, suggesting potential for performance and valuation recovery as negative factors gradually dissipate [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, particularly the Moutai brand, is undergoing a significant price correction, moving from a speculative bubble to a more rational consumption phase, driven by changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][3][18]. Group 1: Market Changes - The price of Moutai has dropped significantly, with current wholesale prices stabilizing around 1700 yuan, down from a peak of 3500 yuan [3][5]. - Other top liquor brands are also experiencing price declines, with Wuliangye's actual transaction price falling to around 800 yuan and Moutai 1935 dropping from 2000 yuan to 700 yuan [5][7]. - The entire high-end liquor market is in a period of price adjustment, reflecting a systemic clearing of the bubble that has built up over the past two decades [7][12]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There has been a substantial contraction in business demand for high-end liquor, particularly due to reduced spending in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, leading to a sharp decline in large-scale consumption [7][10]. - The financial speculation surrounding high-end liquor has collapsed, as Moutai's increased supply through its iMoutai platform has diminished its scarcity, resulting in oversupply and falling prices [8][12]. - Younger consumers are shifting away from high-priced liquor, with only 11% expressing a preference for spirits over 30 degrees, favoring lower-alcohol, smaller-packaged, and diverse-flavored beverages instead [10][14]. Group 3: Industry Adjustments - Leading brands are proactively adjusting to market changes, with Moutai using its iMoutai platform to offer products at lower prices, effectively removing financial speculation and focusing on consumer needs [12][16]. - Wuliangye is also lowering its invoice prices for distributors to adapt to the changing market landscape [12]. - The overall production of liquor is expected to decline by 12% in 2025, marking the ninth consecutive year of decrease, indicating a challenging environment for second-tier brands [12][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend towards rational consumption in the liquor market is expected to continue, with high-end brands focusing on volume and affordability while smaller brands must differentiate themselves through high cost-performance [16][18]. - Consumer preferences are likely to become more diverse, with an increase in demand for low-alcohol and health-oriented products, as well as a shift towards personal consumption settings [16][18]. - The market is moving towards a more reasonable pricing structure as speculation fades, which is beneficial for consumers and essential for the industry's healthy development [18].

Summary of Conference Call on Moutai and the Chinese Liquor Industry Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Moutai (Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Chinese liquor industry, specifically focusing on the premium liquor segment Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Moutai's overall sales volume remained stable year-on-year, with a notable increase in the opening rate of bottles due to price declines [2][3] - The customer base has shifted from large clients (e.g., real estate) to smaller purchases, indicating a change in consumer behavior [2] - The demand for gifting and personal consumption has increased, driven by lower prices [3][32] Pricing Dynamics - The price of Moutai has seen significant reductions, with the current market price for the flying Moutai ranging between 1650 to 1670 [10][11] - The introduction of the "Ai Moutai" platform has stabilized prices and reduced market volatility, which has been beneficial for both consumers and distributors [38][39] - The pricing strategy has shifted to align with market demand, with expectations that prices will not drop further, thus encouraging consumer purchases [29][43] Product Distribution and Inventory - The distribution of Moutai products has been affected by the cancellation of certain distribution agreements, leading to a more streamlined supply chain [4][6] - Inventory levels are low, with distributors reporting rapid turnover of stock, especially during peak seasons like the Chinese New Year [3][8] - The introduction of new product formats (e.g., 1×4 packaging) aims to cater to different consumer preferences, although sales of these formats have been slower [13][14] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The consumer demographic has expanded, with younger consumers and those previously deterred by high prices now entering the market [31] - The perception of Moutai as a luxury item has shifted, with more consumers willing to purchase for personal use rather than solely for gifting [32] - The competitive landscape has changed, with Moutai potentially capturing market share from other premium brands like Wuliangye, although the impact is expected to be limited [32][43] Future Outlook - The potential for growth in the premium segment remains, particularly for products like Moutai 1935, which has seen increased consumer interest due to its perceived value [42][46] - The overall market for Chinese liquor is expected to stabilize, with Moutai's pricing strategy likely to maintain consumer confidence and demand [43][45] Additional Important Insights - The introduction of the Ai Moutai platform has significantly influenced consumer purchasing behavior, leading to increased inquiries and sales [56][57] - The market dynamics have shifted, with consumers now more inclined to purchase in smaller quantities, reflecting a broader trend towards personal consumption rather than bulk buying for corporate gifting [58] - The overall sentiment among distributors is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that Moutai will continue to adapt to market conditions and consumer preferences [29][38]

Investment Focus - The report highlights the value of consumer stocks in a volatile market, recommending a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai, Eastroc Beverage, and Yili Group, all rated as "Outperform" [1]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as mid-to-high-end baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced declines [3][9]. - The overall consumer industry is characterized by a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards essential goods [9]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The revenue for the mid-to-high-end baijiu sector in January was 470 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, while the revenue for the mass-market baijiu sector was 229 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The soft drink sector reported a revenue of 962 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, indicating a cautious recovery in demand [17]. - The frozen food sector saw a revenue of 150 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, driven by pre-Spring Festival stocking and low temperatures [16]. Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale prices of major baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai remained stable, while some brands faced downward price pressures due to high inventory levels [4][21]. - The average discount rates for liquid milk and condiments increased compared to the previous month, reflecting intensified market competition [35][37]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies four favorable funding factors for the essential consumer sector, including significant volatility in global capital markets, declining risk-free interest rates, increased foreign capital allocation to China, and low institutional allocation levels [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with both domestic and foreign institutional preferences, as well as those showing improvements in fundamentals and dividend yields [6].