智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，元旦假期白酒需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比 11、12月略有改善。供给端，酒企目标降低，渠道有望进一步去库纾压。需求端，目前渠道对春节需求 预期谨慎，预计整体下滑双位数、但降幅较元旦会收窄。价格端，对于高端酒，考虑i茅台持续出货叠 加传统渠道即将到货，预计飞天批价边际持续承压。展望2026年全年，酒企从被动应对进入主动调整， 机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳。 华创证券主要观点如下： 元旦需求弱复苏，批价持续低迷，但大众消费韧性较强 元旦需求较弱，多地反馈同比下降20%+，但环比11、12月略有改善。一方面元旦距离春节约一个半月 相对较远，行业仍处淡季，另一方面消费者出行较多，宴席表现一般。量价维度看，元旦期间行业出货 量预计同降10%+，商务宴请、年会团购等需求明显减少，江苏、安徽等地反馈外部政策的疤痕效应仍 在；行业价盘承压，高端酒批价同降10%+，次高端酒批价普遍同降5-10%。局部亮点是大众消费韧性 较强，四川、安徽等地反馈大众宴席及聚饮表现较好，对应80-200元价格带周转不错。 春节的三个研判：渠道去库，下滑收窄，供需矛盾有望减轻 供 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that the liquor industry is expected to experience a dual improvement in supply and demand in 2026, following a risk release in 2025, with a focus on short-term sales recovery and mid-term structural and dividend considerations [4][78] - The consumer market is stabilizing, with structural growth changes continuing, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the food and beverage sector in 2025, which underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 20% [15][18] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance among consumer goods, with health products and frozen food sectors showing increases of 18% and 15% respectively, while liquor and beer sectors faced declines of 7% and 9% [15][18] Group 2 - The liquor sector is characterized by a threefold bottoming out, with supply clearing and value becoming more apparent, as major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye stabilize prices and restore confidence in the market [52][78] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in dining, with a focus on leading brands that can outperform expectations in terms of volume and price [4][52] - The food sector is positioned for recovery and growth, with a focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and snack categories, as demand begins to rebound [4][52] Group 3 - The report indicates that the high-end consumer segment is showing signs of recovery, with luxury retail sales improving and experience-based consumption leading the way [30][33] - The report notes that the overall retail landscape is evolving towards discount retail, quality retail, and instant retail, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [40][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel development in the liquor industry, with a focus on lower alcohol content and appealing to younger consumers [72]

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes prioritizing midstream dairy companies for consumer staples exposure in China, suggesting that this sector is expected to recover first in terms of performance and valuation [1][6]. Industry Overview - In December 2025, among the eight tracked essential consumer sectors, four showed positive growth while four experienced declines. The growing sectors included condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while the declining sectors were premium and mass-market baijiu, dairy products, and beer [3][9]. - The report indicates that the overall demand in most sectors remains subdued, with traditional categories like baijiu, beer, and dairy under pressure due to weakened consumer sentiment and competition from substitutes [3][9]. Price Trends - Baijiu wholesale prices mostly stabilized in December, with notable price changes for various brands. For instance, the price for Moutai (飞天) was reported at 1600 RMB for a full box, down 50 RMB from the previous month [4][22]. - Discounts on liquid milk and convenience foods increased significantly, reflecting a lack of demand, while discounts on condiments and soft drinks decreased [4][36]. Cost Analysis - The cost index for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed results in December, with soft drinks and instant noodles experiencing slight increases, while dairy products and beer saw modest declines [4][5]. - The prices of raw materials such as aluminum cans and paper increased year-on-year, impacting overall production costs [4]. Market Capitalization and Valuation - As of the end of December, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 20.825 billion RMB, with the consumer staples sector's market capitalization share rising to 5.61% [5]. - The report notes that the historical PE ratio for A-share food and beverage companies was at 16% (20.3x), indicating a decrease of 5 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Recommendations - The report suggests a two-pronged investment strategy for January: focusing on high-risk preference stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, and on stocks with improving fundamentals and dividend yields such as Yili and Mengniu [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "iMoutai" app has reduced the daily purchase limit of the 500ml Flying Moutai to 6 bottles per person, down from 12, due to overwhelming demand, indicating a strong market interest and potential supply constraints [1][3][9]. Group 1: Purchase Limit Changes - As of January 4, the maximum purchase limit for the 2026 vintage Flying Moutai on the "iMoutai" app has been halved from 12 bottles to 6 bottles per day [1][3][17]. - The app was launched on January 1, and within three days, it sold out completely, with over 100,000 users successfully purchasing Moutai products [1][9][22]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of the 500ml Flying Moutai is set at ¥1499, and the app's direct sales model is seen as a significant move towards market-oriented transformation for Moutai [5][25]. - The reduction in purchase limits aims to address consumer complaints about availability and to prevent bulk buying by resellers, indicating a shift towards making the product more accessible [12][14][22]. - Industry experts suggest that the purchase limit may be further reduced in the future to meet consumer demand for personal use [12][22]. Group 3: Price Impact on the Market - The introduction of the "iMoutai" app has led to a decrease in the wholesale price of Flying Moutai, with prices dropping below ¥1499 per bottle on various platforms [14][27]. - The return of Flying Moutai to a price point of ¥1499 is expected to impact other premium liquor brands, as it may shift consumer preferences and alter competitive dynamics in the high-end liquor market [14][25][27]. - The app is positioned as a key tool for Moutai to regulate market prices and maintain product integrity, transforming Moutai from a luxury investment item back into a frequently consumed product [12][25][27].

陈华当场表态："茅台不会干违反市场规律的事，也不会让渠道商亏钱。"他还说，这是为了"直接为经销商减负"。但问题是——你信吗？就在不久前，飞 天茅台的批发价一度跌破了1499元的官方指导价；不少经销商自己都承认，"卖一瓶亏一瓶"。在这种节骨眼上，茅台突然宣布要砍掉整个分销体系，这到 底是雪中送炭的温情举动，还是一场冷酷到底的断臂求生？ 咱们得先搞清楚，茅台为什么对自己人"动刀"？答案其实藏在它脚下的"火山口"里。 就在陈华讲话前几天，市场上刚经历了一场小风暴。12月中旬，一张据说是茅台内部文件的截图在经销商群里疯传，核心内容是："飞天茅台低于1650元 出货的，立刻取消经销商资格。"虽然茅台火速辟谣说文件是假的，但恐慌已经蔓延开了。更关键的是，第三方监测数据显示，飞天茅台散瓶的批发价确 实一度跌破了1499元。不光是茅台，五粮液普五的批发价也一度跌到850元，比1019元的出厂价还低，形成明显的"价格倒挂"。整个高端白酒的价格体 系，正在经历一场前所未有的压力测试。 12月28号，贵州茅台在贵阳开了个全国经销商大会。会上，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华直接扔下一颗重磅炸弹：从2026年开始，茅台不再用分销模式 了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with high-end liquor prices declining and companies shifting their strategies to stabilize prices and adapt to changing consumer behaviors [4][10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for high-end liquor has decreased, with a shift from traditional gifting consumption to more personal consumption, leading to a reduction in sales of premium products [5][6]. - The price of 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai has fluctuated significantly, dropping to around 1495 yuan per bottle, prompting the company to implement quantity control measures to stabilize market expectations [3][8]. - The overall liquor market is experiencing a price decline, with major brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu also seeing price reductions compared to the previous year [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, the liquor sector's 19 listed companies reported a total revenue of 317.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.85%, and a net profit of 122.68 billion yuan, down 6.90% [14]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the sector fell to 19.77%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points from the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [14]. - The stock performance of the liquor sector has been weak, with a cumulative decline of 13.76% for the liquor index in 2025, resulting in a market capitalization reduction of approximately 404 billion yuan [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are focusing on reducing burdens on distributors and shifting marketing strategies to be more consumer-centric, moving away from traditional distribution methods [17][18]. - Major liquor companies are streamlining their distribution channels, with a net reduction of 1,701 distributors among 20 listed companies in the first half of 2025 [18]. - The concept of a "shared destiny" between manufacturers and distributors is being emphasized, with calls for shared pricing power and responsibilities to ensure sustainable partnerships [18].

Group 1: Strategy Research - Global asset performance shows significant divergence, with developed European equities rising while emerging Asian equities decline. COMEX silver saw a weekly increase of 9.4%, with an annual increase exceeding 120%. The Federal Reserve has brought forward its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 [3][4][5] Group 2: Food and Beverage Research - Wuliangye held its 29th conference, emphasizing a pragmatic attitude and commitment to reform. The company aims to anchor its market share goals for 2026, maintaining a balance between volume and price, and focusing on product and channel collaboration to solidify its industry-leading position [3][8][9] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Research - Since Q4 2025, crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, with Brent crude closing at $59.68 per barrel as of December 18, 2025, a decrease of 12.43% since early September. Upstream oil and gas extraction companies are expected to face profit pressure, while refining businesses may see improved profitability due to expanded price differentials [3][11][12][14] Group 4: Automotive Research - The draft "Automotive Industry Price Behavior Compliance Guidelines" is expected to advance the anti-involution process in the automotive sector. This guideline aims to regulate pricing behaviors of automotive manufacturers and dealers, potentially alleviating price wars and improving profit margins for dealers [3][15][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. has been facing significant challenges in the white liquor market, with declining sales and profits, despite continuing to invest heavily in advertising partnerships, such as being the exclusive timekeeping partner for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala for the seventh consecutive year [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Yanghe reported revenue of 3.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.01%, and a net loss of 373 million yuan, marking a significant downturn compared to leading competitors like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][6]. - The company's sales volume in 2024 was 139,076.05 tons, down 16.3% from 2023, while production decreased by 8.4% to 145,494.73 tons [8]. - In the first half of 2025, Yanghe's sales volume fell to 78,192.32 tons, a decrease of 32.35%, and production dropped to 48,891.12 tons, down 51.63% [10]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Yanghe has dropped out of the top three in the white liquor industry, currently ranking fifth, facing increasing competition from regional brands like Jinshiyuan and Gujinggongjiu [5][6]. - In Jiangsu Province, Yanghe's revenue fell by 11.43% to 12.748 billion yuan, while Jinshiyuan experienced a 16% growth to 10.551 billion yuan, narrowing the revenue gap significantly [12][14]. - The number of Yanghe's distributors decreased by 257 to 8,609, indicating weakened market presence and a potential impact on future sales [15]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Yanghe's high-end brand, Dream Blue, struggles to establish itself in the market compared to established products from competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye, limiting its appeal as a collectible item [19]. - The company has faced challenges in brand positioning and channel management, leading to a decline in distributor enthusiasm and market share [16][18]. - The new leadership under Gu Yu lacks experience in corporate management and the liquor industry, raising concerns about the effectiveness of future strategies [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Yanghe may need to focus on maintaining its mid-range product line while exploring new consumer segments, particularly younger demographics, to adapt to changing market dynamics [21]. - The company has seen a slight increase in average price per ton, indicating potential for maintaining profit margins despite declining sales volume [21].

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing adjustment in the liquor industry, emphasizing the need for companies to accurately grasp market trends to remain competitive [1] - The data from the Double 11 shopping festival indicates a significant recovery in liquor consumption, with notable year-on-year growth in sales for major brands [2][6] - There is a shift towards value-for-money products as consumers become more rational in their purchasing behavior, impacting the sales dynamics of premium liquor [2][8] Summary by Category Sales Performance - Major liquor brands such as Wuliangye, Moutai, and Jian Nan Chun saw year-on-year transaction growth of 487%, 612%, and 556% respectively during the Double 11 event [2] - JD Supermarket reported an 18% year-on-year increase in liquor sales, with self-operated sales up by 32% [2] - Kuaishou's liquor sales exceeded a 206% increase during the same period, indicating a robust recovery in liquor consumption [2] Pricing Trends - The price of Moutai has dropped to around 1499 yuan after subsidies, with some platforms offering it as low as 1399 yuan, indicating a significant price pressure on the market [4] - The average price of Moutai is currently about 1550 yuan, which is close to the terminal market price, leading to further compression of channel profits [4] - A general decline in prices for various liquor brands has been observed, with some brands experiencing a drop in terminal market prices [5][6] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in the sales of high-priced liquor (above 800 yuan) during the Double 11 period, with the segment accounting for 20.01% of total sales, up by 7.57 percentage points from the previous month [6][7] - Conversely, the lower price segments (100-300 yuan and below) have seen a decrease in market share, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards higher-value products [6][7] - The sales of domestic wines have surged in the 100-300 yuan price range, reflecting a growing preference for quality domestic products among consumers [14][16] Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the liquor industry is facing deeper structural issues, including insufficient consumer spending and changing demographics, leading to a phase of "volume contraction" [16][17] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a battle for market share among brands, with rational consumer behavior influencing purchasing decisions [16][17] - The article concludes that liquor companies must adapt to these market dynamics by adjusting production and pricing strategies to regain control over their pricing power [17]