Core Viewpoint - The recent price fluctuations of Moutai have raised concerns in the market, with the wholesale price of scattered bottles dropping below 2000 yuan for the first time, leading to further declines and panic among distributors [1][3]. Price Trends - As of June 23, 2025, the wholesale reference price for scattered Moutai is 1870 yuan per bottle, while the original box price is 1935 yuan [1][2]. - The price drop has been attributed to multiple factors, including economic downturns, seasonal demand fluctuations, and aggressive pricing strategies from e-commerce platforms during promotional events [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The economic downturn has led to reduced demand for high-end liquor, particularly during the traditional off-peak summer season, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3][7]. - The implementation of strict regulations against alcohol in government receptions has further pressured the market, leading to a significant decline in Moutai's consumption [3][7]. Industry Impact - Moutai's price drop has triggered panic among distributors, with reports of significant losses and a halt in stockpiling [9]. - The high inventory levels, estimated at 1.2 billion bottles, combined with new production capacity, have led to a drastic reduction in Moutai's annual return rate from 28% to 5% [9]. Consumer Behavior - The changing preferences of younger consumers, who are increasingly drawn to more affordable alternatives, have contributed to Moutai's declining market position [24][28]. - The rise of brands like Fenjiu, which have successfully targeted younger demographics with lower price points, highlights the shift in consumer behavior away from traditional high-end products like Moutai [24][28]. Distribution and Sales Channels - Moutai has been adapting to changes in consumer purchasing habits by enhancing its direct sales channels, which now account for 43.8% of its revenue [20][21]. - The company's digital marketing efforts and the establishment of its own online platforms reflect a broader trend in the industry towards direct-to-consumer sales [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai is experiencing fluctuations in online platforms, but the offline market remains stable with prices around 2100-2200 RMB per bottle, indicating strong demand and brand loyalty [1] Demand Side: Strengthening Consumption Foundation - Key indicators such as "opening rate," "sales volume," and "distributor inventory" reflect a robust demand for Feitian Moutai, with increasing opening rates noted by distributors [2] - The most popular product remains the 500ml Feitian Moutai, favored for its versatility in gifting, investment, and collection, with low inventory levels reported by distributors [2] - The consumer demographic includes private business owners and private equity professionals, who purchase Moutai for significant events and social gatherings, indicating a stable demand [2] Supply Side: Unchanged Scarcity Value - The scarcity value of Feitian Moutai remains intact, with a production capacity of only 57,200 tons in 2024, representing just 0.6% of China's total liquor production [4] - Structural shortages persist due to production limitations and lengthy processes, with extremely low winning rates for special editions highlighting the supply-demand gap [4] - The cultural value of Moutai is increasingly recognized by consumers, with quality and cultural significance becoming core elements of its appeal [4] - In Q1 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 51.443 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion RMB, up 11.56%, demonstrating the company's resilience in the industry [4]