证券研究报告·公司深度研究·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 营销改革复盘专题：笃行不怠，臻于至善 2026 年 03 月 03 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 2025/3/3 2025/7/2 2025/10/31 2026/3/1 贵州茅台 沪深300 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 183,022 | 185,125 | 194,493 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.10 | 1.15 | 5.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the "9.9 yuan unlimited" promotion by Cotti Coffee marks a significant shift in the Chinese coffee market from aggressive price competition to a focus on refined operations and sustainable profitability [1][9]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Cotti Coffee initiated a price war in 2023 with its aggressive "9.9 yuan" strategy, which led to rapid market expansion and increased brand recognition, resulting in over 18,000 stores by December 2025 [2][10]. - The price war attracted competitors like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks, who also adopted similar low-price strategies to maintain market share [2][10]. - The "attack hammer" strategy, while initially successful, has turned into a "bleeding wound" as the cost structure became unsustainable, with Cotti's average cost per cup at 11.1 yuan, leading to a loss of 1.2 yuan per cup sold at the 9.9 yuan price point [3][11]. Group 2: Transition to Sustainable Practices - The coffee industry is transitioning from a phase of "barbaric growth" to one of refined operations, with a focus on quality and product differentiation rather than just low prices [4][12]. - By 2025, the Chinese coffee market is projected to reach 218.1 billion yuan, with a shift in consumer behavior towards coffee as a daily necessity rather than a luxury [4][12]. - Cotti Coffee has reported achieving positive cash flow and profitability since May 2024, indicating a strategic pivot away from unsustainable pricing models [7][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Strategy - Consumer reactions to price changes are varied, with some loyal to the low-price model feeling disappointed by price increases, while others support a return to normal market pricing [4][12]. - The end of the price war is expected to lead to a split in consumer preferences, with some seeking alternatives and others becoming loyal customers of brands that innovate [5][13]. - Brands are now focusing on product innovation and supply chain efficiency as new competitive focal points, moving away from price-based competition [5][13].

Core Insights - The Chinese chain coffee market is at a critical juncture as major players like Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee are ending their aggressive "9.9 yuan price war" strategy, while new entrants like Wallace's "WA Coffee" are adopting extreme low-price tactics [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee have both ceased their "9.9 yuan" promotions, with Kudi increasing prices by 30%-60% on core products, while Luckin has limited its low-price offerings to a few basic drinks [1][2] - The end of the price war is driven by the need for financial sustainability and brand upgrading, as maintaining low prices has led to significant cash flow pressures and profit challenges [2][3] - The market is witnessing a split between established brands rationalizing their pricing strategies and new entrants aggressively pursuing market share through extreme low pricing [1][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The necessity for subsidies has decreased as both brands have established a strong market presence, allowing them to focus on product innovation and customer experience rather than solely on price [3][8] - The competition is shifting from price wars to more fundamental aspects such as product differentiation, supply chain efficiency, and brand loyalty [3][8] - Wallace's "WA Coffee" strategy of offering a "9.9 yuan monthly subscription" is seen as unsustainable and potentially damaging to brand value, as it undermines the perceived quality of coffee [4][6][7] Group 3: Future Trends - The coffee industry is expected to transition from a focus on scale to a multi-tiered competition based on value propositions, with brands optimizing cost structures and operational efficiencies [8][9] - There is a growing opportunity in the mid-to-high-end and specialty coffee segments as consumer preferences evolve towards higher quality and better experiences [9][10] - The integration of coffee with other business models, such as food and retail, is anticipated to be a key area of innovation, enhancing customer experience and revenue streams [9][10]

Core Insights - The coffee industry is experiencing significant changes driven by Starbucks' performance, coffee futures prices, and the impact of low-priced competitors like Luckin Coffee [1][2] Group 1: Starbucks' Strategy and Performance - Starbucks China reported an 11% revenue growth, while its U.S. coffee futures prices remain high at 335.25 cents per pound [1] - The company plans to sell 60% of its Chinese operations to Boyu Capital for $4 billion, aiming to leverage local expertise to enhance market penetration [9][10] - Starbucks' latest financial report shows a 5.5% revenue increase to $9.915 billion globally, but a 62.44% drop in net profit to $293 million [8] Group 2: Competition Landscape - Luckin Coffee has surpassed Starbucks in store count, with over 30,000 locations, while Starbucks has around 8,000 [12][13] - The competitive environment is intensifying, with new entrants like Manner Coffee and cross-industry players like Gu Ming entering the market [14][15] - Luckin faces pressure from various competitors, including low-priced offerings from Lucky Coffee and new product lines from tea brands [14][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The growth rate of China's fresh coffee market has slowed from 38% in 2020 to a projected 15% by 2025, indicating a maturing market [6] - Starbucks' strategy shift towards lower-tier markets reflects its struggle to adapt to local consumer preferences [7][9] - The rise of coffee robots and automated solutions poses a new challenge to traditional coffee shop models, potentially undermining Luckin's competitive advantages [15][16]

Group 1: Core Insights - The holiday season, particularly Christmas, is a significant time for emotional consumption, with brands leveraging various IPs to boost sales and profits [1] - Companies are increasingly focusing on audience segmentation to create scarcity and collectability for core fans while emphasizing practicality and trendiness for broader audiences [1][5] - The IP collaboration trend is gaining momentum, with brands like Heineken and Pop Mart successfully launching products that resonate with consumers [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends - The Chinese IP retail market is experiencing historic growth, with retail sales reaching $13.77 billion in 2023, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [6] - The interest consumption market is projected to exceed 380 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a growth rate of over 10% compared to the previous year [2] - The collaboration between brands and popular IPs, such as Disney's "Zootopia 2," is seen as a benchmark for IP commercialization, with over 60 brands participating [5][6] Group 3: Business Models - There are three main business models for IP: self-owned IP, licensed IP, and short-term collaborations for exposure [7] - Successful IPs typically possess cross-media content value, allowing for low-cost and precise connections with users [7] - Companies like Disney have established a robust commercial ecosystem, generating $62 billion in retail sales from IP licensing [8] Group 4: Strategic Approaches - Brands are exploring innovative strategies to avoid homogenization in IP collaborations, such as creating unique product categories [6][7] - Miniso is actively signing original toy artists to build its own IP matrix, aiming for a dual strategy of international licensed IP and exclusive artist collaborations [8][9] - The emotional connection between consumers and IP characters is crucial for successful branding, requiring a deeper understanding of consumer needs [9]

Core Insights - The new collaboration product "Sauce Aroma Chocolate" from Luckin Coffee and Kweichow Moutai has not replicated the success of the previous "Sauce Aroma Latte" [2][5] - The initial response to "Sauce Aroma Chocolate" has been lukewarm, with low sales and minimal social media buzz compared to the previous product launch [2][5][11] Product Launch and Sales Performance - "Sauce Aroma Chocolate" was launched on January 22, priced at 38 yuan per cup, but available for 18 yuan after discounts [2] - In contrast to the "Sauce Aroma Latte," which sold over 5.42 million cups and generated over 100 million yuan in sales on its first day, "Sauce Aroma Chocolate" did not sell out at stores and had low consumer awareness [5][10] - Consumers reported that the product remained available at multiple Luckin locations even hours after its launch [2][11] Consumer Reception and Market Trends - The initial excitement for "Sauce Aroma Latte" stemmed from its unique blend of Moutai liquor and coffee, appealing to a younger demographic who found it affordable compared to other Moutai products [10] - However, after the novelty wore off, many consumers expressed a lack of interest in repurchasing, which may explain the poor reception of the new chocolate product [10][11] - Luckin Coffee has been recognized as a "product explosion machine" in the coffee industry, but the challenge remains to maintain consumer interest with new offerings [3][16] Competitive Landscape - Luckin Coffee's pricing strategy is more affordable than Starbucks, allowing it to capture a significant market share [18] - The company faces increasing competition from both traditional coffee brands and emerging tea beverage brands that are also entering the coffee market [22][23] - The ongoing price war in the coffee sector has led to many brands offering coffee at lower prices, intensifying competition [25]

Core Insights - The decline in the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai below 2000 yuan in 2025 signals a significant adjustment in the Chinese liquor industry, influenced by a combination of policy changes, shifts in consumer behavior, and intense competition [1] - The industry experienced a drop in both volume and price, with production decreasing by 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [1] - Over half of the companies reported declines in both revenue and profit, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, indicating severe channel inventory issues [1] Market Dynamics - The price system reflects a widespread "price inversion" in the mid to high-end segments, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan range, due to weak terminal demand and high channel inventory [2] - The shift in consumer spending towards more affordable price ranges (100-300 yuan) signifies the end of an era driven by government consumption and investment attributes [2] - The emerging younger generations prioritize emotional value, personal expression, and health over traditional liquor culture, leading to a demand for "light" drinking experiences [2] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, there are signs of nearing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for improvement in the industry as policy impacts diminish and consumption scenarios stabilize in 2026 [3] - The recovery will not be a simple V-shaped rebound but will focus on a return to value centered around quality, branding, and culture [3] Strategic Directions - The industry must embrace youthfulness and internationalization as essential strategies for survival and growth, requiring a shift from a top-down approach to genuine engagement and innovation [4] - Companies should develop products that resonate with younger consumers and leverage new marketing channels, such as live streaming and instant retail [4] - Internationalization involves moving from product export to brand and cultural export, necessitating long-term investments in product adaptation for overseas markets and effective storytelling about Chinese liquor [5] Industry Transformation - The deep adjustment in 2025 serves as a necessary catalyst for the maturation of the Chinese liquor industry, revealing the unsustainability of old models [6] - The future winners will be those who prioritize quality, empathize with the new generation of consumers, and possess the patience and wisdom to elevate Chinese liquor to a global narrative [6] - The next golden era for the industry will be built on genuine consumer recognition rather than being driven by channels and capital [6]

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee, China's largest coffee chain, is considering acquiring Blue Bottle Coffee, a premium brand owned by Nestlé, marking a significant move towards the global high-end coffee market [1][10]. Group 1: Strategic Implications - The potential acquisition is part of Luckin's globalization strategy, aiming to enhance its brand image and enter the high-end market dominated by Starbucks and independent cafes [2][11]. - Luckin Coffee has surpassed Starbucks in store count in China but is perceived as a budget brand, while Blue Bottle represents a premium positioning with a focus on quality and aesthetics [2][12]. - The acquisition could provide Luckin with over 100 international store locations, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, enhancing its global footprint [1][3][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, Luckin reported a net revenue of $2.1 billion, a 50% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of approximately $180 million, indicating strong financial health post-scandal [3][13]. - The financial strength supports the feasibility of a large-scale acquisition, allowing Luckin to pursue its strategic goals [3][13]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The acquisition faces significant challenges, including high valuation risks, as Blue Bottle's worth has likely increased since Nestlé's 2017 acquisition for approximately $425 million [4][14]. - Cultural integration poses a challenge, as Luckin's operational model differs significantly from Blue Bottle's emphasis on artisanal coffee and customer experience [4][15]. - Operational complexities arise from differing business models and supply chain management, which could hinder efficiency post-acquisition [4][15]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The coffee market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with new entrants like Luckin's former executive's brand and aggressive pricing strategies from competitors [5][15]. - Luckin's profit margins are under pressure, with a reported 2.7% decline in net profit and a net profit margin of 8.26%, the lowest since 2022 [5][15]. - The global coffee industry is evolving, with major players like Starbucks expanding aggressively, indicating a shift from mere store count competition to brand positioning and capital strategies [7][17].

Core Viewpoint - A major American coffee giant has sold 60% of its stake in its Chinese operations for $4 billion, effectively relinquishing its dominance in the Chinese market [2][26]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coffee giant entered China in 1999 and expanded to 8,000 stores at its peak, capturing 34% of the high-end coffee market [5][8][10]. - The company failed to adapt to changing consumer preferences and maintained high prices, with basic coffee costing over 30 yuan, which limited its appeal [12][24]. - Local brands have emerged, offering innovative products that cater to Chinese tastes, such as the sauce-flavored latte, which sold over one million cups on its first day [17][19]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Luckin Coffee have gained market share by providing high-quality, affordable options, with prices ranging from 10 to 20 yuan [19][24]. - The shift in consumer behavior towards convenience has favored local brands that utilize digital tools for ordering and delivery, contrasting with the coffee giant's traditional in-store model [21][30]. - The coffee giant's market share plummeted from 34% to 14% as local brands captured consumer loyalty [24][36]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions - Faced with declining performance, the coffee giant opted to sell 60% of its stake to a local capital firm, Bo Yu Capital, after multiple failed attempts at localization [26][28]. - The transaction signifies a loss of control over its operations in China, although the company retains 40% ownership and brand rights [28][30]. - The deal reflects a broader trend in the Chinese market where local brands are increasingly preferred, highlighting the need for foreign companies to adapt to local demands [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating prices of Moutai have become more volatile than stock trading, with significant price drops and rebounds observed within a short period, indicating a severe imbalance in supply and demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - On December 12, the wholesale price of Moutai fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, reaching 1485 yuan, with original boxes dropping to 1495 yuan, marking a recent low [1]. - Following Moutai's decision to halt shipments to distributors, prices surged on December 13 and 14, with a daily increase of 90 yuan for scattered bottles and 95 yuan for original boxes, but by December 15, prices fell again to 1560 yuan and 1570 yuan respectively [3]. - The price difference exceeded 100 yuan within four days, leaving both consumers and distributors confused [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The core issue for Moutai is not merely the reduction in shipments but a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, with three main problems identified: excessive inventory, reduced consumer interest, and the collapse of its financial appeal [5][11]. - The average inventory turnover days for the entire liquor industry reached 1424 days by Q3 2025, indicating that products remain unsold for over three years, which is 65% longer than the previous year [5]. - Moutai's production capacity increased by 8% this year, while demand decreased by 12%, leading to a significant oversupply situation [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai have diminished, particularly among younger consumers who prefer alternatives like red wine and low-alcohol beverages for social occasions [9]. - Moutai's attempts to appeal to younger demographics through products like ice cream and chocolate have not resulted in sustained interest [9]. - The cultural shift away from high-end banquets and reduced corporate spending has further impacted Moutai's sales [9]. Group 4: Financial Viability and Future Outlook - Moutai's financial model has deteriorated, with many investors now selling off their stock due to declining prices, which were once as high as 3000 yuan per bottle [11][14]. - The current cost line for distributors is approximately 1600 yuan, and prices below 1500 yuan result in losses, prompting distributors to sell off inventory [12]. - Moutai's strategy to control supply may provide temporary relief but is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of excessive inventory and changing consumer preferences [14][15]. Group 5: Long-term Strategies - Moutai must focus on returning to its core identity as a consumable product rather than an investment vehicle, with new product launches aimed at younger consumers [17]. - Stabilizing distributor relationships is crucial, as the total contract liabilities of 20 listed liquor companies amount to 39 billion yuan, indicating ongoing hope among distributors [18]. - The broader economic environment poses significant challenges, with macroeconomic pressures and a decline in high-end dining culture affecting Moutai's recovery prospects [18][19].