我们认为，板块PE修复或先于EPS修复，预计26Q2板块业绩低基数背景下或迎EPS层面拐点，重视当前 板块投资机会。建议关注：①价值主线：强品牌、强需求韧性且分红回报可观的贵州茅台、五粮液、山 西汾酒等；②弹性主线：政策&需求端变化带来的潜在预期修复机会，泸州老窖、山西汾酒、酒鬼酒、 舍得酒业、水井坊、华致酒行、珍酒李渡等。 2025H1经济&政策双重影响下白酒行业迎5大变化，目前仍处深度调整阶段。 白酒行业为强β行业，2025H1受经济/消费仍偏弱&廉洁教育/限制饮酒相关文件出台影响，春节后淡季 动销表现持续走弱，在新环境下，行业迎5大新变化：①产品矩阵变化：在低度化/年轻化/高性价比趋 势下，酒企相继重视低度产品序列化&中档价位序列化布局工作&产品品质升级；②渠道持续升级：酒 企通过组建平台公司加强渠道掌控，拥抱新渠道平衡线上线下；③营销：打破"红包"内卷，侧重培育新 场景、新人群；④目标理性：头部酒企均以渠道健康&中长期发展为方向，理性看待业绩增速目标。 我们认为，白酒行业经历了"广告为王-渠道为王-品牌为王"阶段后，即将迎来"质价比"比拼阶段，在龙 头酒企已凭借敏锐嗅觉提前布局背景下，行业集中度有望加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that the Chinese liquor industry will undergo four significant changes in the first half of 2025 due to economic and policy influences, highlighting the importance of adapting to market trends and consumer preferences [1] Group 1: Changes in Product Matrix - The industry is shifting towards lower alcohol content, younger demographics, and high cost-performance products, with companies focusing on the serialization of low-alcohol products and mid-range pricing, as well as upgrading product quality [1] Group 2: Channel Upgrades - Liquor companies are enhancing channel control by establishing platform companies and balancing online and offline channels [1] Group 3: Marketing Strategies - The industry is moving away from traditional "red envelope" marketing strategies, instead focusing on cultivating new scenarios and target demographics [1] Group 4: Rational Goals - Leading liquor companies are prioritizing channel health and long-term development, adopting a rational perspective on performance growth targets [1] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio in the liquor sector may recover before earnings per share (EPS), with a potential turning point in EPS expected in the second quarter of 2026 due to a low base effect. Current investment opportunities should focus on companies with strong brands, resilient demand, and attractive dividend returns, as well as those that can capitalize on potential recovery opportunities from policy and demand changes [1]