白酒行业需求转弱

Search documents
今世缘(603369):机制灵活主动降速,逆势投入巩固竞争地位
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-26 14:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown flexibility in its operations by actively reducing speed in response to a weakened demand environment, indicating a focus on long-term health rather than short-term performance [3] - Despite a challenging market, the company has increased its investment to maintain competitiveness and keep its team motivated [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current market conditions, with expected revenues of 107.30 billion, 112.18 billion, and 115.89 billion respectively [9] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 69.50 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit of 22.29 billion, down 9.46% year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgments - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.52 billion, a significant decline of 29.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.85 billion, down 37.06% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of a weakened industry demand [3] - The company’s product categories were affected differently, with higher-end products experiencing the most significant declines [4] - Revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets showed a decline of 32.22% and 17.82% respectively, with the out-of-province market performing slightly better due to strategic focus [5] - The company maintained a net increase in its dealer network, indicating a strategy to optimize its distribution channels [6] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 72.81%, showing stability despite the revenue decline, while the net profit margin was 31.57%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has adjusted its expense ratios, with a notable increase in promotional expenses despite a decrease in overall revenue [7] Investment Recommendations - The company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2025-2027, with expected earnings per share (EPS) adjusted to 2.42, 2.59, and 2.73 respectively [9] - The current closing price of 44.55 corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18, 17, and 16 for the years 2025-2027 [9]