证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 44.55 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.47 | / 12.47 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）555 | / 555 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 56.37 / 35.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.2% | | 市盈率 | 16.28 | | 第一大股东 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 今世缘(603369) 业绩释放真实经营压力，最差时点已过 l 投资要点 公司发布 2025 年中报,实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 69.5/22.29/22.24 亿元，同比-4.84%/-9.46%/-9.08%。25H1 公司毛 利率/归母净利率为 73.41%/32.06%，分别同比-0 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 今世缘（603369.SH） 充分释压，行稳致远 省外和苏中表现相对略好。2025H1 省内/省外收入分别为 63/6 亿元，同 比-6%/+5%；2025Q2 收入同比-32%/-18%。省内看，2025H1 淮安/南京 /苏南/苏中/盐城/淮海收入分别为 12/18/7/11/8/7 亿元，同比分别-4%/- 8%/-11%/-0.2%/-6%/-7%；2025Q2 收入同比分别-30%/-34%/-39%/- 19%/-39%/-45%。公司近年在环江苏（皖鲁浙沪等）销售有突破，省外 计划投放淡雅。 盈利预测与投资建议：考虑整体动销承压，我们下调 2025-2027 年盈利预 测，预计公司 2025-2027 年摊薄 EPS 分别为 2.43/2.58/2.85 元/股（前值 分别为 2.99/3.28/3.58 元/股），当前股价对应 PE 为 18/17/16x，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济波动，消费恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧，产品结构 升级和省内外拓展不及预期等。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 机制灵活主动降速，逆势投入巩固竞争地位 [Table_Title2] 今世缘(603369) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603369 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 57.36/35.35 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 555.45 | | 最新收盘价： | 44.55 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 555.45 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,246.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 25 日，公司发布中报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 69.50 亿元，同比-4.84%，实现归母净利润 22.29 亿 元，同比-9.46%。 分析判断: ► Q2 主动降速适应弱化的需求环境，反映企业机制灵活，追求健康长期发展。 经计算，25Q2，公司实现营业收入 18.52 亿元，同比-29.69%，实现归母净利润 5.85 ...

编辑丨李文贤 出品丨搜狐财经 随着行业全面进入存量博弈的缩量竞争阶段，酒企业绩普遍回调。 8月25日盘后，今世缘交出了一份营利微降的成绩单。 今年上半年，公司实现营收69.50亿元，同比减少4.84%；归母净利润22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。 第二季度，公司实现营收18.52亿元，同比下滑29.69%；归母净利润5.85亿元，同比下滑37.06%，均为2014年以来首次下滑。 针对下半年动销情况，今世缘近期透露，6 月及7月终端动销增速环比4月、5 月出现下滑，主要是受政策因素和季节性影响。 九成收入仍靠省内，省外市场营收6.28亿元 从产品结构看，上半年今世缘特A类产品（出厂价100-300元）成为唯一增长品类，营收22.32亿元，同比增长0.74%。 作者丨饶婷 分区域看，今世缘市场仍以江苏为主，省内贡献了近九成营收。 上半年省内实现营收62.54亿元，同比减少6.07%；省外实现营收6.28亿元，同比增长4.84%。 "省外市场受政策影响小于省内，市占率和营收仍在提升。"今世缘方面表示，省外战略聚焦于江苏周边核心市场（如安徽、山东、上海、浙 江）。上海、浙江市场民间消费占比较高，V 系产品表现较好 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 放下报表，思路清晰 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营收 69.5 亿元，同降 4.8%，归母净利润 22.3 亿元，同降 9.5%；单 Q2 营收 18.5 亿元，同降 29.7%，归母净利润 5.8 亿 元，同降 37.1%。单 Q2 回款 20.2 亿元，同降 18.9%，经营现金流量净额-3.5 亿元，去年同期为 2.4 亿元，合同负债 6.0 亿元，环比 Q1 末增加 0.6 亿元。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：消费复苏放缓、省内竞争加剧、高端及省外布局不及预期。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 10,112 | 10,565 | 11,551 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | -12.4% | 4.5% | 9.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,41 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 今世缘（603369） 2025 年中报点评：主动降速纾压，筑牢发展 基础 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,100 | 11,546 | 10,594 | 11,250 | 12,166 | | 同比（%） | 28.05 | 14.31 | (8.24) | 6.19 | 8.14 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,136 | 3,412 | 2,983 | 3,214 | 3,569 | | 同比（%） | 25.30 | 8.80 | (12.56) | 7.72 | 11.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.52 | 2.74 | 2.39 | 2.58 | 2.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.61 | 16.19 | 18.51 | 17.19 | 15.47 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

【中国白酒网】上半年净利润同比减少9.46%，第二季度单季净利润同比减少37.06%，今世缘的业 绩增长势头，按下了暂停键。 值得关注的是，截至6月30日，今世缘上半年合同负债约6亿元，同比减少62.35%，市场对其产品 的预期或许并不乐观。此番业绩拐点向下，今世缘短期要想重回增长趋势，并非易事。 结束10年增长势头，二季度业绩首次大幅下滑 作为苏酒龙头之一，今世缘近年来一直保持着快速追赶洋河股份的势头，稳定的业绩表现正是支撑 该公司股价于高位保持坚挺的最大底气。然而在今年二季度，公司业绩却遭遇"滑铁卢"，出现了大幅下 滑。 8月25日晚间，今世缘公布了2025年中期业绩报告。根据中报，公司上半年实现营业收入69.5亿 元，同比减少4.84%；实现净利润为22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。其中，今年二季度，今世缘营业收入 18.52亿元，同比下降29.69%；实现净利润5.85亿元，同比下降约37%。 记者注意到，虽然二季度是白酒行业传统淡季，但近10年，今世缘二季度业绩一直保持着稳定增长 的态势——2018年、2019年、2021年以及2023年的二季度单季净利润同比增幅均超过20%。2024年虽然 增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.31% year-on-year for 2024, with total revenue reaching 11.546 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, and net profit was 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1] Group 2: Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2] - The overall white liquor sales volume increased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 4.3%, indicating a shift in product structure [2] - Revenue by region in 2024 showed growth in key markets: Huai'an 2.24 billion yuan (+12.3%), Nanjing 2.63 billion yuan (+11.7%), and significant growth in Suzhong (+21.2%) [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 73.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 32.2%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities were 540 million yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline, likely due to proactive channel management [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 12% and 14% to 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 4.38 billion yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 16, 15, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for market share growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" with a target price of 53.64, indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index [1][7][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.546 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.31%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion, up 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 5.099 billion, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.644 billion, growing by 7.27% [4][10]. - The company is experiencing steady growth across multiple product lines, with significant contributions from premium products [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenues of 11.546 billion and a net profit of 3.412 billion, with respective growth rates of 14.31% and 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues reached 5.099 billion, reflecting a 9.17% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.644 billion, up 7.27% [4][10]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that premium products (特 A+/特 A/A) contributed significantly, with revenues of 7.491 billion, 3.347 billion, and 419 million, growing by 15.17%, 16.61%, and 1.95% respectively [5]. - The company is expanding its market presence, with a notable increase in the number of distributors both domestically and internationally [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.75%, slightly declining to 73.63% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of mid-tier products and increased discounts [6]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.55%, which decreased to 32.24% in Q1 2025, indicating a slight decline in profitability [6]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 10% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 11% for 2027, with net profit growth expected at 9%, 10%, and 12% respectively [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.98, 3.28, and 3.66 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][10].