430亿苏酒老二，打响四大攻坚战 【中国白酒网】430亿市值的"苏酒老二"，期待延续增长故事。 12月末，今世缘董事长顾祥悦，在发展大会上回顾，过去五年，其主要指标翻番，营收突破百亿， 省内市占率大幅提升，省外超千万地级市场达40个。 所谓"量质双升，基础更牢"的答卷，给了顾祥悦信心。 "成为中国白酒最具成长性的创新型企业。"顾祥悦如此为未来定调，2026年预备全力打赢"四大攻 坚战"。 一边鼓气，一边也回归务实。 "公司现在更关注市场占有率，而不是绝对的数字目标。"此前有管理层坦言。 提振信心 按本来计划，2025年的营收力争150亿元。 只是，酒业量价齐跌、库存高企，要达到这一目标的概率很低。 1-9月，今世缘营收为88.81亿元，净利25.49亿元，同比均有两位数下滑，这种状况也是近年来罕 见。 尤其是江苏大盘的营收，缩水超10亿元，淮安、南京两大核心区域下滑超一成，省外营收仅微增 0.6%。 目前，江苏白酒市场的总规模约600亿元，今世缘的市占率达17%，仅次于洋河的24%，增长空间 接近天花板。 顾祥悦说，旗下产品矩阵得到优化，如强化国缘V系高端形象，四开、对开、淡雅等大单品的战略 成效显著，推动了 ...

（企业公众号） (编辑：林辰)关键字： 今世缘 白酒 近日，今世缘酒业官方公众号发布2026今世缘发展大会召开的消息。当中披露，"十四五"期间，今世缘 交出"量质双升，基础更牢"答卷。主要指标实现翻番，2023年营收突破百亿大关，实现历史性跨越。市 场拓展纵深推进，省内市场占有率大幅增长，省外超千万地级板块达40个。品牌产品矩阵优化，强化国 缘V系高端形象，推动四开、对开、淡雅大单品战略，今世缘品牌破局重塑，推动高沟品牌经典活化。 营销变革有序有力，推进组织变革，优化组织架构，锻造组织能力，践行"厂商一家人"理念，强力推 进"大营销管控"体系培训，促进主体优化提升。资源要素拔节起势，制曲产能和原酒产能分别突破8万 吨，陶坛贮能达30万吨，实施战略性人才"3333工程"，构建核心人才梯队。 今世缘酒业党委书记、董事长、总经理顾祥悦指出，2025年是"十四五"收官之年，今世缘厂商团队承压 奋进，拼出实干争先新图景。企业坚守战略，稳住市场基本盘，国缘V3强势出圈，省内外、电商多渠 道协同发展，管理体系持续完善，大客户开发成效显著；立足改革创新，激活动力源，供应、生产、销 售、消费端多维度提质升级；提升厂商协同，聚力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that despite a positive short-term consumption trend during the holiday season, the overall consumption level is unlikely to return to previous highs, indicating a new normal in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - The company observed a good consumption trend in October due to a longer holiday, increased willingness for compliant gatherings, and a rise in gifting local liquor [1]. - However, as life returns to normal in November, the consumption heat is expected to decline, suggesting a more subdued market environment [1]. - Online sales during the Double Eleven event showed positive growth compared to last year, aligning with the company's expectations and enhancing brand penetration in online consumption [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Inventory Management - The company acknowledges that e-commerce platform subsidies have a short-term impact on pricing but believes the long-term effects are limited due to low online penetration of liquor sales and consumer awareness of subsidies [2]. - The management stated that they will not intentionally pursue additional channel payments to maintain price stability, as this could lead to significant price disparities and weaken brand differentiation [2][3]. - The company is focused on maintaining a healthy inventory level and optimizing market conditions rather than pursuing superficial sales boosts [3]. Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - The company plans to continue expanding its product range across various price segments, with a focus on core products and new market opportunities [3]. - There is a recognition of the need for low-alcohol products to attract new consumer demographics, with the industry beginning to explore this segment more seriously due to current market pressures [4][5]. - The company believes that while younger consumers may initially avoid traditional liquor, they will likely engage with it as they age, particularly favoring lower-alcohol, higher-quality options [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has observed a positive trend in alcohol consumption during October, attributed to the longer holiday period and increased social gatherings, although a return to previous consumption levels is unlikely, leading to a new normal [1] Group 1: October Consumption Trends - The management noted that the overall sentiment in October was good, driven by a longer holiday and stronger compliance in gatherings [1] - Consumption during October was largely completed in September, indicating a strong pre-holiday performance [1] - As life returns to normal in November, consumption levels are expected to decline, with a more subdued atmosphere [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Pricing Strategy - Online sales during the Double Eleven event showed positive year-on-year growth, aligning with company expectations and enhancing brand penetration in online channels [1] - The impact of e-commerce platform subsidies on white wine prices is limited in the long term, as the main consumer base remains offline [2] - The company is actively managing unauthorized online sales to protect consumer rights [2] Group 3: Market Position and Inventory Management - Despite an increase in inventory, the company is gaining market share and maintaining a stable pricing structure [3] - The company will continue to pursue a balanced approach to inventory and market conditions, avoiding superficial strategies for short-term gains [3] - Future growth will focus on a full price range strategy, with plans to expand successful products into surrounding markets [3] Group 4: Low-Alcohol Product Development - The company acknowledges the need for low-alcohol products as a response to market pressures, with a focus on attracting new consumer demographics [4] - Historical trends show that younger generations eventually engage with white wine, albeit with changing preferences towards lower-alcohol and higher-quality options [4][5] - The exploration of low-alcohol products is seen as a necessary evolution for the industry, requiring patience for successful integration [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in its operations [1][4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at 19.31 billion yuan, down 26.78% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend in sales [1][2] - The company is expected to focus on maintaining market share through increased marketing expenditures despite the pressure on overall sales [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 88.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.49 billion yuan, down 17.39% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 75.04%, a decline of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.08 percentage points [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from the Special A+ category was 11.23 billion yuan, down 38.04% year-on-year, while the Special A category saw revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.12% [2] - Direct sales channels experienced a significant increase of 65.21% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency channels saw a decline of 30.27% [2] Future Projections - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 101.0 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, and 114.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.5%, +4.4%, and +8.1% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 27.4 billion yuan, 28.0 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.8%, +2.3%, and +11.0% respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in its operations [1][4] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was reported at 19.31 billion yuan, down 26.78% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend in sales [1][2] - The company is expected to focus on maintaining market share through increased marketing expenditures, particularly in the mid-range product segment, which is anticipated to perform better than higher-priced products [4][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 88.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.49 billion yuan, down 17.39% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 75.04%, a decline of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.08 percentage points [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from the Special A+ category was 11.23 billion yuan, down 38.04% year-on-year, while the Special A category saw revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.12% [2] - Direct sales channel revenue increased by 65.21% year-on-year to 0.96 billion yuan, while wholesale and agency channel revenue fell by 30.27% to 17.91 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 101.0 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, and 114.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.5%, +4.4%, and +8.1% respectively [4][5] - The projected net profit for the same period is 27.4 billion yuan, 28.0 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.8%, +2.3%, and +11.0% respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 320 million yuan, down 48.7% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.88 billion yuan, a decline of 10.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing pressure on sales, particularly in the high-end and above segments, while the mid-range products are performing relatively stable [2] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected diluted EPS of 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share for the respective years [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Special A+ category (above 300 yuan) revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year; Special A category (100-300 yuan) revenue was 640 million yuan, down 1% year-on-year; A category (50-100 yuan) revenue was 70 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year; B category (20-50 yuan) revenue was 30 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix effects [1] - The net profit margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6% due to rising expense ratios [1] Regional Performance Summary - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2025 was 1.7 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 200 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [2] - The Suzhong region showed positive growth, benefiting from years of market accumulation, while some areas outside the province are considering early introduction of new products [2] Earnings Forecasts - The report projects a decline in earnings due to overall industry pressure, with revised EPS estimates for 2025-2027 being 2.15, 2.28, and 2.48 yuan per share, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges amid a structural adjustment in the liquor industry, with marketing efforts not fully offsetting the pressures from declining sales and profits [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Decline - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 6.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and net profit was 2.229 billion yuan, down 9.46% [4][5]. - The company reported a significant drop in second-quarter revenue and net profit, with declines of 29.69% and 37.06% respectively, marking the first time since 2021 that both metrics fell in a half-year report [2][3]. - The company’s revenue growth rate has sharply decreased, with projections indicating that 2025 may be the first year in a decade to see an overall decline in performance [4][6]. Group 2: Market and Product Structure - The company heavily relies on the Jiangsu market, which contributed 90.95% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating a severe imbalance in market distribution [6][7]. - The high-end product segment, particularly the A+ category (priced above 300 yuan), saw a revenue decline of 7.37% in the first half of 2025, with significant pricing issues affecting the ultra-high-end product, Guoyuan V9 [6][7]. - The overall market trend shows a shift in consumer preference towards the 300-500 yuan price range, with sales of products priced above 800 yuan dropping by 28% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Channel Challenges - The company is experiencing high inventory levels and declining confidence among distributors, with contract liabilities dropping from 1.593 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 600 million yuan, a decrease of 62.35% [8][9]. - As of mid-2025, the company’s inventory was 5.723 billion yuan, reflecting a buildup of stock and slow sales turnover, with inventory turnover days increasing to 549.8 days from 451.1 days year-on-year [9][10]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 13.75% year-on-year to 1.075 billion yuan, indicating challenges in cash recovery due to sluggish sales [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The performance of the liquor sector improved during the National Day holiday, with stable demand for banquets and better sales in the mass price range. The high-end and mid-low price segments performed relatively well, while the sub-high-end segment faced pressure. Overall, the performance aligns with market expectations, indicating a gradual bottoming out in sales and performance for liquor companies [3][13] - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a slight decline of -0.15% this week, ranking 18th among 30 first-level industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.36 percentage points. The current dynamic PE for the industry is 21.51 [7][16] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Observation - The liquor sales during the National Day holiday showed a general improvement compared to previous months, with stable banquet demand. Top brands like Moutai maintained prices above 1800 RMB, while second and third-tier brands faced price adjustments and inventory pressures. The overall performance is consistent with capital market expectations, indicating a gradual recovery phase for liquor companies [3][13] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a mixed performance, with 10 sub-sectors, excluding other alcoholic beverages and liquor, showing increases. The highest gain was in soft drinks, which rose by 4.86% [7][16] Key Company Announcements - Wuliangye announced a stock buyback plan, acquiring 6,273,266 shares, representing 0.16% of its total shares, for a total amount of approximately 800 million RMB [22] - Jinsiyuan reported a significant revenue decline of nearly 30% in Q2, aligning with market sales trends [22] Important Industry News - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by slower sales, channel restructuring, and increased differentiation, laying the groundwork for long-term development [25]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities report indicates that Jinshiyuan's H1 2025 achieved revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.95 billion and 2.23 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.8% and 9.5% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.85 billion and 0.59 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% and 37.1% [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - Jinshiyuan's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 were 6.95 billion and 2.23 billion, down 4.8% and 9.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the figures were 1.85 billion and 0.59 billion, representing a significant decline of 29.7% and 37.1% year-on-year [1] Product Strategy and Market Position - The company has established a competitive advantage in products such as Si K4 and D K4, with significant growth potential in most provincial markets [1] - Future focus will be on higher-priced V3 products, with ongoing efforts to expand dealer networks [1] Market Opportunities - The company aims to capture structural opportunities in the 400-500 yuan price range in East and North China, addressing both the upgrade demand from the 300 yuan segment and attracting rational consumption from the 600-700 yuan segment [1] Operational Strategy - In response to a challenging environment, the company has proactively adjusted its pace and is expected to continue this strategy into Q3 [1] - Despite the pressures, the company maintains strong channel and market momentum, indicating a clear buildup for future performance [1]