证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 44.55 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.47 | / 12.47 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）555 | / 555 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 56.37 / 35.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.2% | | 市盈率 | 16.28 | | 第一大股东 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 今世缘(603369) 业绩释放真实经营压力，最差时点已过 l 投资要点 公司发布 2025 年中报,实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 69.5/22.29/22.24 亿元，同比-4.84%/-9.46%/-9.08%。25H1 公司毛 利率/归母净利率为 73.41%/32.06%，分别同比-0 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 机制灵活主动降速，逆势投入巩固竞争地位 [Table_Title2] 今世缘(603369) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603369 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 57.36/35.35 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 555.45 | | 最新收盘价： | 44.55 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 555.45 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,246.80 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 25 日，公司发布中报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 69.50 亿元，同比-4.84%，实现归母净利润 22.29 亿 元，同比-9.46%。 分析判断: ► Q2 主动降速适应弱化的需求环境，反映企业机制灵活，追求健康长期发展。 经计算，25Q2，公司实现营业收入 18.52 亿元，同比-29.69%，实现归母净利润 5.85 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 放下报表，思路清晰 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 实现营收 69.5 亿元，同降 4.8%，归母净利润 22.3 亿元，同降 9.5%；单 Q2 营收 18.5 亿元，同降 29.7%，归母净利润 5.8 亿 元，同降 37.1%。单 Q2 回款 20.2 亿元，同降 18.9%，经营现金流量净额-3.5 亿元，去年同期为 2.4 亿元，合同负债 6.0 亿元，环比 Q1 末增加 0.6 亿元。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：消费复苏放缓、省内竞争加剧、高端及省外布局不及预期。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 10,112 | 10,565 | 11,551 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | -12.4% | 4.5% | 9.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,41 ...

事件：公司发布25 年半年度报告，25H1 实现营业总收入69.5 亿，同比下降4.84%，归母净利润22.3 亿，同比下降9.46%。其中25Q2 实现营业总收入18.5 亿，同比下降29.7%，归母净利润5.85，同比下降 37.1%。我们在业绩前瞻中预测公司25Q2 营业总收入同比下降15%，归母净利润同比下降18%，公司业 绩低于预期。 投资评级与估值：由于外部需求环境仍然承压，下调25-27 年盈利预测，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分 别为30.5 亿元、32.3 亿、35.4 亿（前次分别为 36.0、38.2、40.8 亿），同比变化-10.6%、5.9%、9.4%， 当前股价对应的PE 分别为18x、17x、16x，由于公司国缘系列品牌势能仍强，同时与可比公司比较估值 仍处合理区间，维持买入评级。 消费场景受限 次高端产品承压。25Q2 白酒收入18.02 亿，同比下降30.9%，分产品结构看，特A+类产 品收入11.4 亿，同比下降32.1%，由于5 月下旬以来消费场景受限，估计以国缘四开和V 系为代表的次 高端以上产品销售承压。特A 类产品收入5.83 亿，同比下降28.1%。分区域 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 26 日 今世缘 (603369) 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 今世缘 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com ——报表释放压力 业绩低于预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 44.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 57.36/35.35 | | 市净率 | 3.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.71 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 55,233 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | ...

【中国白酒网】上半年净利润同比减少9.46%，第二季度单季净利润同比减少37.06%，今世缘的业 绩增长势头，按下了暂停键。 值得关注的是，截至6月30日，今世缘上半年合同负债约6亿元，同比减少62.35%，市场对其产品 的预期或许并不乐观。此番业绩拐点向下，今世缘短期要想重回增长趋势，并非易事。 结束10年增长势头，二季度业绩首次大幅下滑 作为苏酒龙头之一，今世缘近年来一直保持着快速追赶洋河股份的势头，稳定的业绩表现正是支撑 该公司股价于高位保持坚挺的最大底气。然而在今年二季度，公司业绩却遭遇"滑铁卢"，出现了大幅下 滑。 8月25日晚间，今世缘公布了2025年中期业绩报告。根据中报，公司上半年实现营业收入69.5亿 元，同比减少4.84%；实现净利润为22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。其中，今年二季度，今世缘营业收入 18.52亿元，同比下降29.69%；实现净利润5.85亿元，同比下降约37%。 记者注意到，虽然二季度是白酒行业传统淡季，但近10年，今世缘二季度业绩一直保持着稳定增长 的态势——2018年、2019年、2021年以及2023年的二季度单季净利润同比增幅均超过20%。2024年虽然 增速 ...

二季度白酒行情加速恶化，两家华东酒企也未能幸免。 二季度，今世缘营收同比下滑近30%，归母净利润同比下滑37%；迎驾贡酒营收同比下滑24%，归母净利润同比下滑35%。 | 科目 | 本期数 | 上年同期数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,950,338,546.11 | 7.304.075.016. | | 营业成本 | 1,848,215,368.17 | 1.914.247.409. | | 销售费用 | 1.030.005.124.42 | 983.600.411. | | 管理费用 | 210,879,810.36 | 206.299.709. | | 财务费用 | -51.020.381.44 | -80.382.848. | | 研发费用 | 23.845.472.37 | 23.608.101. | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | 1.075.151.797.42 | 1,246,502,040. | | 投资活动产生的现金流量净额 | -455.090.706.93 | -185.605.068. | | 筹资活动产生的现金流量净额 | -1,572,00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is adapting its market strategies in response to changing consumer behavior and competitive pressures, while maintaining its strategic direction and focusing on product quality and market share growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Strategy Adjustments - The company plans to accelerate the launch of its "Danyan" product in response to current market pressures, which may become a key consumer segment [1]. - There will be an increase in promotional efforts to address competition, potentially leading to a slight decrease in actual transaction prices [1]. - The company is committed to investing in high-end products to build consumer trust while adjusting prices to enhance product value [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Conditions - Since late May, the consumption environment has changed significantly, with high-end product sales declining sharply, particularly for products priced at "Four Open" and above [1]. - Despite a general decline in revenue, the company is still gaining market share, especially in the "Danyan" and lower-tier product lines [1][2]. - The company reports that the inventory rate among distributors is approximately 20%, equating to about 2.5 months of sales, indicating a healthy inventory level [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Consumer Trends - The company is observing a potential increase in sales due to upcoming graduation banquets, with families showing interest in higher-end products [3]. - The industry is expected to see substantial improvement by the second half of 2026, with potential for better performance in Q4 2025 [3]. - There is a possibility of introducing lower-alcohol products in the future, contingent on technological advancements to maintain taste and quality [3]. Group 4: Long-term Goals and Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes that its growth targets are part of operational plans and not binding commitments, with respect for market conditions [4]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" goals have not yet been established and will be determined based on future market environments [4]. - Dividend policies will be discussed at shareholder meetings, with management expressing support for a more proactive dividend approach [4].

Group 1 - The company maintains stable operational performance while seeking breakthroughs through strategies such as price stability, inventory control, and organizational adjustments [1] - During the off-season, the main products' prices remained stable, with significant year-on-year growth in order volume during festive occasions, although the average drinking volume per banquet slightly decreased [1] - The company has established a customer relationship management department to enhance professional operations and steadily grow its sales team, aiming to strengthen its competitive edge during the new adjustment cycle [1] Group 2 - The company has a clear strategy for its main products, leveraging its price range and brand advantages to continuously increase market share [2] - The company holds a strong position in the 100-500 yuan price range, benefiting from widespread consumption scenarios and strong product recognition, while also addressing market upgrades in the 300 yuan segment [2] - The V series products have performed in line with market expectations, with the V3 product showing strong development in mature markets such as Nanjing and Suzhou [2] Group 3 - The company continues to pursue development in the domestic market while focusing on regional integration in the surrounding areas for expansion [3] - There is still penetration space in the domestic market, with leading market shares in mature markets like Huai'an and Nanjing, while there are opportunities for growth in markets like Yangzhou and Taizhou [3] - The company is actively exploring new channels, with an increasing proportion of online sales and initiatives in instant retail through self-built teams and third-party collaborations [3] Group 4 - The company’s strategy of refining operations in the domestic market while aggressively expanding in surrounding areas is clear, with expectations for revenue growth of 8.5% and 10.1% in 2025-2026 [3] - Projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 12.525 billion and 13.789 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.672 billion and 4.017 billion yuan [3]