财通证券认为，批价方面，原箱普飞已由月初1500元/瓶左右上涨至1700元/瓶以上。主要原因在于：1) 飞天价格下探叠加节前需求集中释放，合力催化动销激增；2)公司削减非标配额，供给端结构调整聚焦 飞天；3)i茅台常态化投放飞天，对个人消费者购买意愿有刺激作用。核心因素在于，白酒旺季需求仍 有刚性，个人消费者所代表的真实开瓶动销逐步成为消费主力。看好本轮春节旺季白酒需求修复。 白酒板块持仓已至冰点，资金面存在做多基础 4Q2025白酒板块的公募基金持仓比例已降至5.1%，是2Q2017以来的历史低点；同时4Q2025主动基金持 仓比例更是仅2.9%。同时，近期各类宽基指数ETF资金净流出或导致白酒板块超跌，并非是基本面和预 期的有效定价。当前白酒板块在资金层面筹码结构进一步调整优化，具备做多的弹性基础。 业绩调整已进入深水区，有望逐步企稳 财通证券（601108）发布研报称，根据今日酒价，近期飞天茅台批价快速上涨至1700元以上。对于本轮 节前白酒需求，市场普遍预期较低，而近期茅台动销与批价均有超预期表现，渠道反馈临近1月末经销 商飞天出货量激增，部分已出现断货和库存见底情况。业绩端看，当前酒企普遍谨慎经营， ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a recovery phase after a significant downturn, with sales pressure having peaked and expectations for demand recovery in the future [2][7]. Sales Dynamics - In Q2 2025, the tightening of regulations on public consumption and business banquets led to a decline in both volume and price for white liquor, with significant drops in high-end group purchases and business scenarios [1][3]. - Since Q3 2025, the normalization of consumption controls and correction of negative sentiment have resulted in a month-on-month improvement in sales, particularly for Moutai, which showed a three-step recovery from July to September [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the white liquor sector reported revenues of 78.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, and a net profit of 28.06 billion yuan, down 22.0%, marking the largest quarterly declines since 2013 [3]. - Cumulative revenues for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 320.11 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profits fell by 6.9% to 122.69 billion yuan [3]. Individual Company Performance - In Q3 2025, Moutai's growth slowed to below 1%, while Wuliangye experienced a revenue and net profit decline of 53% and 66%, respectively, the largest quarterly drops since 2013 [4]. - Fenjiu saw a revenue increase of 4%, while other brands like Shede and Shui Jing Fang continued to decline [4]. Historical Context - The previous adjustment period for the white liquor industry occurred from 2013 to 2015, characterized by a sequence of declining sales followed by a recovery phase [5][6]. - The historical price movements of Moutai serve as a leading indicator for the industry's performance, with significant price drops preceding the recovery phase [5][6]. Current Market Conditions - The supply side is seeing liquor companies actively managing inventory and stabilizing prices, while the demand side is still in a phase of bottoming out [7]. - The valuation of the white liquor sector is at historical lows, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye setting benchmarks for dividends, indicating a favorable time for investment [7]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is suggested for investment due to the recovery in sales dynamics and the deep V-shaped financial performance, with specific recommendations for short-term and long-term holdings in various companies [8].