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2026年展望系列五:理财风光仍在,债基格局重塑
China Post Securities· 2025-12-11 08:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Residents' investment preference is rising, but there is still a demand for safe assets. They show a contradiction of "declining risk preference but still having a desire for returns" [3]. - The scale of wealth management products is expected to continue growing, but their yields still face challenges. In the context of deposit disintermediation, there is still room for growth in the scale of wealth management in 2026 [4]. - Public - offering bond funds and wealth management are interacting more deeply. Attention should be paid to the changing trends in product structure. The public - offering bond fund market is undergoing a pattern reshaping [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Liability Side: Residents' Investment Preference Rises, and the Demand for Safe Assets Remains - **Limited Asset Allocation Options and Sustained Demand for Safe Assets**: Residents' asset allocation shows a contradiction between balancing safety and returns. They have a reduced risk - bearing capacity on the asset side and a demand for "elastic returns" in low - risk assets [11][13]. - **Strengthened Deposit Disintermediation and Changed Investment Will**: Deposit rate cuts have strengthened the deposit disintermediation trend. The improvement of the equity market has made residents more willing to invest, and they prefer fund trusts over stocks [16][18]. 3.2 Wealth Management Products: Scale Expected to Continue Growing, Yields Still Facing Challenges - **Wealth Management Scale: Returned Above 30 Trillion, Investment Returns Under Pressure**: In Q3 2025, the bank wealth management scale reached 32.13 trillion yuan. The number of products increased steadily, with fixed - income products dominating. The number of participants also continued to grow. However, the yields of underlying assets of wealth management products have declined [19][24]. - **Wealth Management Behavior: Strategies for Stable Scale and Reduced Volatility**: To achieve stable scale and reduced volatility, wealth management has adjusted its asset allocation. It has increased the proportion of cash and deposits and changed its bond investment preferences, such as increasing the preference for inter - bank certificates of deposit and avoiding corporate bonds [26][29]. - **Regulatory Environment: Systemic Tightening Continues, a Major Source of Risk**: The regulatory environment for wealth management is tightening. Net - value reform and regulatory policies such as the "Asset Management Trust New Regulations" may affect the underlying assets of wealth management products. In the future, wealth management will focus more on high - liquidity assets [32][34]. 3.3 Public - Offering Bond Funds: Deep Interaction with Wealth Management, Focus on Product Structure Changes - **Public - Offering Scale Keeps Growing, Bond Fund Redemption Pressure Emerges**: As of the end of November 2025, the total scale of public - offering funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan. The combined proportion of bond funds and money market funds decreased compared to the end of 2024. The scale of bond funds fluctuated upward, but they faced redemption pressure [38]. - **During the Concentrated Opening Period of Fixed - Open Funds, Wealth Management Takes Over as the Main Allocator**: From December 2025 to May 2026, fixed - open bond funds will have a concentrated opening period. Wealth management is likely to increase its allocation of credit - type coupon assets through these funds and reduce the allocation of interest - rate products such as policy - financial bonds [42][45]. - **Expansion of ETF Bond Funds, Growing Interest from Wealth Management**: In 2025, the scale of bond ETFs expanded significantly. Wealth management products may become an important force in bond ETF allocation. In the future, the public - offering bond fund market will undergo a pattern reshaping [46][52].