证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 研究所 ⚫ 理财规模有望继续增长，收益率仍面临挑战 理财规模站稳 30 万亿大关，新增发行产品有序扩容。2025 年三 季度，银行理财规模达 32.13 万亿，产品数量稳步上升，固收占绝对 多数，风险类别向二级集中，参与人数持续增加。低利率环境下，理 财产品的底层资产收益曲线整体下移。2025 年理财产品普遍通过投资 低波动、短久期和高流动性资产的方式降低影响，并且增加同业存款 比例，抗波动能力进一步提升，债市行为主要体现为对同业存单的偏 好大幅上升和对企业债的规避，以及信用债哑铃型配置策略和政金债 降低久期。综合来看，存款脱媒背景下，理财 2026 年规模仍有增长 空间，在监管去通道化、净值透明化的要求下，理财资产配置或更加 偏重稳健，流动性和久期控制将是理财平稳波动的主要考量因素。 ⚫ 公募债基与理财互动深入，关注产品结构的变化趋势 近期研究报告 《连续调整后，二永的机会在哪儿？— —信用周报 20251210》 - 2025.12.10 固收周报 理财风光仍在，债基格局重塑 ——2026 年展望系列五 ⚫ 居民投资偏好回升，安全资产需求仍在 存 ...

Core Insights - The central viewpoint emphasizes the importance of wealth management in supporting the real economy and achieving high-quality financial development in China, as outlined in the recent Central Financial Work Conference [1]. Wealth Management Market Development - The Chinese wealth management market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one focused on high-quality development, with competition shifting from product quantity to long-term customer value realization [3][4]. - The market has seen significant changes, including a decline in interest rates and a diversification of residents' financial asset demands, indicating a shift from "incremental drive" to "stock optimization" [3][4]. Customer Demands and Transparency - There is a growing demand for product transparency among customers, who now seek detailed information about investment logic, underlying assets, risk distribution, and fee structures [2][3][4]. - Wealth management institutions are encouraged to enhance their disclosure methods from static to dynamic, focusing on process transparency rather than just results [2][5]. Technological Integration and Future Trends - The integration of AI and data capabilities is seen as crucial for the future of wealth management, shifting the focus from product-centric to customer goal-centric approaches [6][9]. - Institutions are expected to develop comprehensive research and investment capabilities, along with a deep understanding of customer needs through data-driven insights [6][9]. Green Finance and Risk Management - The concept of "green finance" is highlighted, with a focus on using financial technology to create quantifiable and verifiable systems for assessing green investments, thereby mitigating "greenwashing" risks [9][10]. - A dual scoring system for evaluating green projects is proposed, combining commercial viability and emission reduction effectiveness [10][12]. Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The wealth management market is projected to evolve towards net value-based products, with opportunities arising from lower interest rates and new themes in green and technology investments [14][15]. - Investment strategies should focus on stable cash flow and long-term growth, utilizing a "core + satellite" approach to asset allocation [16].

Core Viewpoint - The forum hosted by China Merchants Bank focuses on the high-quality development of wealth management in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, highlighting both challenges and opportunities in the banking wealth management sector as it transitions to a net worth-based model [1][4]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - The wealth management industry is experiencing a dual challenge of opportunities and risks due to the deepening low-interest rate environment and the transition to net worth-based products [6]. - The shift to a fully net worth-based model is expected to reshape the industry ecosystem significantly, with the need for wealth management companies to align their investment capabilities with client expectations for sustainable returns [5][6]. - The current market shows a trend where most individual investors hold wealth management products for less than one year, indicating a preference for short-term, low-risk products [7]. Group 2: Demand and Client Expectations - There is a growing understanding among clients regarding net worth-based products, but many still hold strong expectations for capital preservation and stable returns, which may not align with the new market realities [7]. - The traditional client base is slow to adapt to the underlying logic of net worth-based products, creating a dependency that could limit future growth for wealth management companies [7]. Group 3: Asset Management and Investment Strategies - The wealth management industry is heavily reliant on fixed-income products, which constitute 97% of the product offerings, but the attractiveness of high-grade bonds is diminishing as yields decline [8][9]. - There is a pressing need for wealth management firms to enhance their research and asset allocation capabilities, particularly in equity assets, to meet the rising demand for stable returns in a volatile market [9]. Group 4: Future Development and Strategic Focus - Wealth management companies, such as Jianxin Wealth Management, are encouraged to adopt a client-centric approach, focusing on understanding and meeting diverse client needs through tailored product offerings [10][11]. - The strategy includes expanding product lines to include multi-asset and multi-strategy offerings, particularly targeting clients in the Greater Bay Area with innovative products like "fixed income plus" strategies [12]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing IT capabilities and implementing digital transformation to improve client experience and operational efficiency [13]. Group 5: Regional Economic Support and Collaboration - Jianxin Wealth Management aims to leverage its unique position as the only major wealth management firm registered in the Greater Bay Area to support regional economic development and meet local financial needs [14]. - The company plans to explore investment opportunities in innovative industries and green finance, while also facilitating cross-border financial services to meet client demands for international asset allocation [14].

Group 1 - The asset management market is entering a new era characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, necessitating a reliance on technological management for investments and products [1][2] - The current environment shows a significant decline in high-yield assets as many have matured, leading to a scarcity of investment managers capable of meeting investors' demand for flexible returns [2][4] - The market is experiencing a shift where traditional fixed-income assets are under pressure, and the focus is now on generating excess returns beyond fixed income [4][5] Group 2 - The main challenges in the asset management industry include product classification and customer segmentation, with a need to provide suitable products for different client needs [5][6] - The investment strategy involves a diversified approach with three core teams: fixed income, innovation (REITs), and multi-strategy, focusing on various asset classes [6][9] - The company aims to differentiate itself from banks and public funds by seeking absolute returns rather than relative performance, utilizing derivatives and other strategies [7][10] Group 3 - The company is focusing on macro allocation and aims to become a specialized asset manager in this field, seeking excess returns through strategic asset allocation [10][12] - Current investment opportunities include precious metals like gold, agricultural products, and certain overproduced commodities, reflecting a cautious yet opportunistic approach [13][14] - The strategy emphasizes finding arbitrage opportunities across different asset classes, with a focus on macroeconomic conditions and market volatility [15]