证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 2026，理财重迎"净值化"的变局 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十五 [Table_Summary] ►2025 年，净值平滑的终年 回眸 2025，理财全年运行呈现出三个核心特征： 特征 1：净值波动成为常态，回撤上限还可控。随着估值整改推 进，理财净值波动的频率和幅度均明显抬升。不过整改也伴随着浮盈 释放，起到了净值平滑的作用。尤其是在市场大幅调整的背景下，借 助浮盈支撑，理财基本将产品回撤上限控制在 10bp 以内。 特征 2：理财收益下破 2.0，实际回报与负债成本之间的矛盾日 益突出。25 年，全市场理财产品平均收益率进一步下滑，首次跌破 2.0%至 1.98%，前一年末为 2.65%。而在负债端，受制于渠道业绩 压力制约，理财的业绩基准下调幅度渐缓，这也使得理财产品实际业 绩与业绩基准下限之间的安全垫逐步压缩，部分产品已出现倒挂。 特征 3：存量浮盈托底&存款搬家，规模创历史新高。在整体业 绩持续走低的背景下，2025 年理财规模实现"逆势"扩张，全年累计增 ...

合理看待存款脱媒对流动性的影响，资管产品通过同业渠道回流银行体系 开源证券发布研报称，从存贷款开门红的形势分析，大型银行更占据扩表优势和业绩确定性，建议关注 国有大行及财富客群优势股份行的配置价值。NCD定价上，该行认为大型银行暂无缺口压力，央行偏 呵护状态下暂无提价需要。资金面平稳跨年可期，但因今年春节假期较长，现金漏损及春节后存款回流 强度或受一定影响，建议关注。 开源证券主要观点如下： 2025年信贷结构优化，新发定价降幅收窄，预计2026年量温和、价平稳 2025年信贷总量保持合理增长，结构进一步优化。全年人民币贷款还原化债影响后增长7%左右，其中 科技、绿色、普惠分别同比增长11.5%、20.2%、10.9%，持续高于平均贷款增速。从定价水平看，12月 利率区间在[0，LPR-1%)的低价贷款占比继续减少。央行对社会融资成本的表述，也逐渐从"推动下 降"调整为"推动低位下行"、"促进低位运行"，侧面反映新发贷款或已进入"稳价"阶段。 2026年信贷开门红总量适中、节奏平滑，债贷比价及成本底线构成约束。2026年信贷节奏或保持前置， 但1月投放或相对适中，预期人民币贷款增量5万亿左右，同比略少增。一是 ...

银行 2026 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳—行 业深度报告》-2026.2.3 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 -2026.1.26 信贷轻总量、重结构，"广义存款"未流失 ——2025Q4 央行货币政策执行报告学习 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 朱晓云（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524070010 | 2025 年信贷结构优化，新发定价降幅收窄，预计 2026 年量温和、价平稳 2025 年信贷总量保持合理增长，结构进一步优化。全年人民币贷款还原化债影 响后增长 7%左右，其中科技、绿色、普惠分别同比增长 1 ...

银行 2026 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳—行 业深度报告》-2026.2.3 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 -2026.1.26 信贷轻总量、重结构，"广义存款"未流失 ——2025Q4 央行货币政策执行报告学习 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 朱晓云（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524070010 | 2025 年信贷结构优化，新发定价降幅收窄，预计 2026 年量温和、价平稳 2025 年信贷总量保持合理增长，结构进一步优化。全年人民币贷款还原化债影 响后增长 7%左右，其中科技、绿色、普惠分别同比增长 1 ...

【环球网财经报道 记者谭雅文】2025年，除了存款储蓄，你的钱都投向哪了？从最新披露的行业数据来看，一个明显 的趋势是，公募基金与理财市场正迎来增量资金，规模均取得突破。通过购买各类资管产品进行多元化配置，成为居 民财富管理的重要选择。 官方发布最新的统计数据显示，截至2025年底，公募基金与银行理财市场规模分别为37.71万亿元和33.29万亿元，全 年增长4.89万亿元和3.34万亿元，同比增幅达14.89%和11.15%。业内专家认为，规模增长背后反映的是居民财富管理 需求持续释放，其核心驱动力源于低利率环境下的资产配置重构。 这一偏好结构也预示着市场的资金流向，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙分析认为，风险偏好较高的资金可能配置 股票或基金；风险偏好较低、追求稳定回报的资金可能流入债市。因此2026年股市与债市都有一定机会，但股市上涨 带来的财富效应可能吸引更多资金偏向股市。 规模扩张可期，能力建设面临挑战 面对持续涌入的增量资金预期，资管行业准备好了吗？专家用"量能充足，质效待提"概括了当前的承接态势。 规模增长背后：双重因素影响财富流向 "从规模数据看，截至2025年末，银行理财存续规模突破33万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a significant transformation, with a notable increase in market size but a decline in average product yields, raising questions about the future of bank wealth management products. Group 1: Market Size and Growth - As of the end of 2025, the banking wealth management market reached a size of 33.29 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.15% growth from the beginning of the year [2] - The total number of investors holding wealth management products reached 143 million, a 14.37% increase from the start of the year, marking the highest scale in the history of Chinese banking wealth management [3] - The growth in wealth management scale in 2025 was driven by multiple factors, including the outflow of funds from deposits, valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with rights to enhance yields [3] Group 2: Yield Trends - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98% in 2025, the lowest in history, down 67 basis points from 2024's average of 2.65% [1][6] - In 2025, wealth management products generated a total return of 730.3 billion yuan for investors, a 2.87% increase from the previous year [6] - The decline in yields is attributed to significant fluctuations in the stock and bond markets, as well as a general decrease in risk-free rates [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - Analysts predict that the trend of deposit "disintermediation" will continue to drive funds towards wealth management, but the core demand from clients remains focused on stability [4][11] - Wealth management institutions are advised to enhance their research capabilities and adopt a systematic approach to risk management, particularly in response to bond market volatility and high underlying asset risks [1][9] - There is a call for wealth management firms to diversify their product offerings and focus on long-term strategies, particularly in areas such as retirement planning and green finance, to meet the evolving needs of investors [10][11]

导语 大幅增配公募基金。 随着《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（下称《报告》）出炉，过去一年理财市场的运行情况浮出水面：存续规模站上33.29万亿元，全年累 计新发理财产品3.34万只，累计募集资金76.33万亿元。 在这份《报告》中，最受普通投资者关注的还是理财收益情况。在全市场利率普遍处于下行通道的背景下，2025年理财产品平均收益率罕见跌破2%，降 至1.98%。不过，2025年持有理财产品的投资者数量又比上年末增加了约1800万个，年末已达到1.43亿个。 光大证券银行分析师王一峰也表示，存款与理财等资管产品间比价效应可能加剧存款"脱媒"，但囿于"真净值"运作导致收益波动加大、"打榜"产品规模回 落压力等因素，理财规模增长节奏或有颠簸。"2026年理财规模仍有望增长3万亿元以上。"他在最新报告中预测称。 平均收益率破2%，又有1800万投资者入场 从资产配置结构来看，2025年理财产品大幅增配了公募基金，降低了直接配置权益类资产和债券的比例，对现金和银行存款的配置比例也明显提升。 存续规模超33万亿，今年再增3万亿？ 《报告》显示，截至2025年末，全国共有159家银行机构和32家理财公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the key characteristics of the banking wealth management market in 2025, emphasizing the significant growth in wealth management scale, the shift towards "fixed income+" products, and the decline in average yields, while also noting the stability of the number of wealth management companies and their market share exceeding 90% [4][6]. Group 1: Scale - The wealth management scale increased by nearly 3.3 trillion yuan in 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the end-of-year scale expected to be between 33 trillion and 34 trillion yuan [4]. - The second half of 2025 saw a significant contribution to scale growth, with 78.4% of the annual increase occurring in this period, amounting to 2.62 trillion yuan [4]. - Factors contributing to this growth included the outflow of funds from deposits, the release of "floating profits" due to valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with embedded rights [4]. Group 2: Product Structure - Fixed income products maintained a stable share of around 97%, with internal structural shifts observed between "fixed income+" and pure fixed income products, as well as between current management and non-current management products [5]. - The transition towards comprehensive "net value" management is evident, with low to medium-risk products remaining a cornerstone, and the ratio of open-ended to closed-end wealth management products stabilizing at approximately 8:2 [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The asset allocation in wealth management saw a significant increase in deposits, with the proportion of deposit-type assets rising to 28.2%, the highest in recent years [5]. - The total asset allocation scale increased by 3.53 trillion yuan in 2025, with deposits contributing 2.38 trillion yuan, while public funds and interbank lending increased by 890 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Group 4: Wealth Management Returns - The average yield of wealth management products in 2025 was 1.98%, a decrease of 14 and 67 basis points compared to the first half of 2025 and 2024, respectively [6]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the customer experience regarding wealth management returns may weaken, as the yield center and performance benchmarks continue to decline [6]. Group 5: Customer Behavior and Competitive Landscape - The number of investors reached 143 million, with individual investors primarily exhibiting a conservative risk preference [7]. - The market share of wealth management companies still has room for upward movement, with distribution channels becoming a significant variable affecting institutional behavior [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 annual report on the banking wealth management market highlights five key characteristics: (1) a significant increase in wealth management scale by nearly 3.3 trillion yuan, (2) the rise of "fixed income+" products as a crucial growth driver amid a recovering capital market, (3) a decline in wealth management yields below 2%, (4) an increase in the allocation of wealth management to deposit-like assets reaching 28.2%, and (5) a stable number of wealth management companies at 32, with market share exceeding 90% [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Scale - The wealth management scale increased by approximately 3.34 trillion yuan in 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the end-of-year scale expected to be between 33-34 trillion yuan [4][9]. - The second half of 2025 contributed 78.4% of the total scale increase, with significant growth driven by factors such as deposit "disintermediation" and the release of "floating profits" [4][5]. Product Structure - Fixed income products maintained a stable share of around 97%, with "fixed income+" products growing by 16% to 10.8 trillion yuan [15][17]. - The structure of fixed income products showed a balance between cash management and non-cash management products, with cash management products at 7.04 trillion yuan [15]. Asset Allocation - The allocation to deposit-like assets increased to 28.2%, driven by the need for stability in net value and the relative yield advantages of deposits [23][25]. - Public funds saw an increase of 8.9 trillion yuan, with a notable contribution from the second and fourth quarters [25][26]. Wealth Management Returns - The average yield for wealth management products in 2025 was 1.98%, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods, with expectations for further weakening in 2026 [38][40]. Customer Behavior - The number of wealth management investors reached 143 million, with a strong preference for low-risk and medium-low-risk products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among individual investors [42][44]. Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies reached 92.3%, with potential for further growth as distribution channels expand and non-licensed institutions reduce their scale [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the total wealth management scale in the market will grow by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to reach 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by multiple factors including deposit "disintermediation" and the expansion of wealth management products [4]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support factor, but the growth pace may experience fluctuations; a neutral estimate suggests an increase of around 3 trillion yuan in 2026 [4]. - The maturity of over 41 trillion yuan in deposits from listed banks in 2026 is expected, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 9 trillion yuan [4]. - Factors such as the "true net value" operation leading to increased yield volatility and pressure on "ranking" product scales may cause fluctuations in the growth pace of wealth management [4]. Group 2: Product Layout - The focus is on building a stable low-volatility foundation while actively expanding rights-containing products, with an estimated 150-300 billion yuan in funds expected to flow into the stock market from wealth management in 2026 [5]. - The "fixed income +" wealth management scale is projected to grow by 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 16% increase in the existing scale by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - Regulatory bodies are conducting research on the challenges and bottlenecks regarding wealth management funds entering the market, indicating a strong demand for expanding rights-containing products [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - There remains a rigid allocation to deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to enhance returns [6]. - The report suggests that the allocation to bonds may increase if the relative "cost-effectiveness" of deposits and bonds changes, alongside changes in the stability of wealth management liabilities [6]. - The forecast for wealth management's bond allocation indicates a strong demand for short-term bonds, while the capacity for mid to long-term allocations may decrease, leading to a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 4: Wealth Management Operations - The performance benchmarks for wealth management are expected to face downward pressure, with potential for increased net value drawdown risks [7]. - The "true net value" operation model may lead to a weaker customer experience in terms of returns in 2026 compared to the previous year [7]. - Despite these challenges, factors such as increased liquidity reserves and regulatory support for liquidity are expected to mitigate redemption pressures [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to continue rising, with channel factors being a significant variable affecting the competitive landscape [8]. - The distribution channels for wealth management are anticipated to further penetrate county-level regions, enhancing customer reach and potentially increasing market share [8]. - The number of wealth management institutions is expected to remain stable, with the possibility of new institutions being established [8].