盘面反弹空间
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煤焦:市场情绪波动,盘面反弹空间有限
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 02:26
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market sentiment fluctuates, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. The news of Indonesia's coal RKAB production quota cut mainly affects market sentiment, with little impact on China's coking coal supply pattern. The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, and prices are mainly affected by market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuation - The rebound of coal and coke futures prices is due to the news of Indonesia's coal RKAB production quota cut, which boosts market sentiment. However, Indonesia mainly produces thermal coal, and the impact on coking coal and anthracite is small. From 2022 to 2025, thermal coal accounted for over 98% of Indonesia's coal exports to China, so the reduction in Indonesia's exports has little impact on China's coking coal supply pattern [2]. Supply Side - This week, domestic coal mines are gradually shutting down for the holiday. Mines in Yunnan and Jinzhong, Shanxi have shut down earlier, with a significant decline in production. Next week, around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month, private coal mines will enter the peak shutdown period, and production will drop sharply. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 192.5 million tons and 75.5 million tons respectively, down 5.3 million tons and 1.6 million tons from the previous week. Although the expected reduction in coal production supports coal prices, the production cut is in line with past years' patterns, and downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no continuous upward - driving force [2]. Demand Side - Steel mill production is relatively stable, with the average daily pig iron output maintained at around 2.28 million tons [2]. Other Influencing Factors - Indonesia's suspension of exports and the fact that the US and India regard coking coal as strategic minerals have led to the strengthening of coking coal futures prices, but the actual impact on China's supply is very limited [2].