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桃李面包(603866):Q2经营承压 期待后续改善
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:31
Q2 毛利/四费同比-1.2/+1.1pcts,盈利承压。25Q2 公司毛利率为23.8%,同比-1.2pcts,预计主要系收入 规模下降固定成本摊薄效果有限。费用方面,25Q2 销售费用率为8.4%,同比+0.7pcts;管理费用率 2.2%,同比+0.4pcts;研发/财务费用率为0.4%/0.5%,同比+0.01/0.02pcts,四费合计+1.1pcts。综合影响 下,25Q2 公司归母净利率为8.5%,同比-2.3pcts;扣非净利率为8.2%,同比-2.2pcts。 适应变化主动调整,期待后续经营恢复。公司持续完善全国市场布局,在持续重点关注华东、华南市场 基础上,积极拓展西南市场、新疆市场;对于成熟市场加快销售网络细化下沉,挖掘市场潜力;针对市 场消费行为出现不同程度的分流及分化,结合头部客户个性化产品需求为给客户提供全套产品方案。展 望看,短保行业具备提升空间、外埠市场仍待拓展,公司在这一阶段完善销售网络布局,持续调整产品 结构、布局新兴渠道以适应消费需求变化,后续待需求进一步恢复、规模效应释放,经营效率有望进一 步改善。 投资建议:我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为54.1/5 ...
桃李面包(603866):Q2经营承压,期待后续改善
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-22 04:26
Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The second quarter of 2025 continued to show operational pressure, with revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit of 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and expanding its market presence to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 5.94 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profits for the same period are 428 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 517 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The total number of distributors increased to 971 by the end of H1 2025, with a net addition of 18 distributors compared to Q1 [2]