桃李面包所属申万行业为：食品饮料-休闲食品-烘焙食品。所属概念板块包括：休闲食品、低价、增持 回购、MSCI中国、融资融券等。 截至6月30日，桃李面包股东户数6.28万，较上期减少2.62%；人均流通股25454股，较上期增加2.70%。 2025年1月-6月，桃李面包实现营业收入26.11亿元，同比减少13.55%；归母净利润2.04亿元，同比减少 29.70%。 分红方面，桃李面包A股上市后累计派现43.60亿元。近三年，累计派现12.21亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，桃李面包十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第九大流 通股东，持股1447.30万股，相比上期增加738.99万股。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第十大流通股 东，持股739.86万股，为新进股东。工银创新动力股票（000893）退出十大流通股东之列。 9月9日，桃李面包盘中上涨2.10%，截至09:39，报5.84元/股，成交2814.39万元，换手率0.31%，总市值 93.42亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出122.72万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出103.15万元，占比 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The marketing campaign for the "Peach and Li Egg Mooncake" by the company has faced backlash due to a controversial advertisement, leading to an official apology and the removal of the ad [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was approximately 2.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was around 204 million yuan, down nearly 30% [9]. - The company's sales expenses for the first half of 2025 were 222 million yuan, with advertising expenses of approximately 43 million yuan, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [5][9]. - From 2021 to 2024, the company experienced a continuous decline in net profit, with figures of 763 million yuan, 640 million yuan, 574 million yuan, and 522 million yuan respectively, indicating a downward trend [8][11]. Dividend Policy - Despite the declining profitability, the company has maintained a high cash dividend payout, distributing a total of 4.36 billion yuan since its IPO, with an average dividend payout ratio of 70.24% [12]. - The cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 were 571 million yuan, 533 million yuan, 288 million yuan, and 400 million yuan, representing 74.85%, 83.31%, 50.16%, and 76.60% of the respective net profits [11][12]. Company Structure and Market Position - The company, established in 1995, focuses on high-quality baked goods, primarily bread, and has developed into a large-scale enterprise with a central factory and wholesale model [7]. - The company has seen a decline in product innovation, with a noted decrease in R&D expenses from 1687.94 million yuan in mid-2023 to 1066.05 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. Crisis Management - The recent advertising controversy has been viewed by some analysts as a successful crisis management effort, as it increased awareness of the "Peach and Li Egg Mooncake" among consumers [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit was 120 million yuan, down 31.4% [1] Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the bread and pastry segment generated 1.39 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, while other products brought in 20 million yuan, down 38.9% [2] - Regional revenue performance varied, with the Central China region showing a robust growth of 15.3%, while other regions experienced declines [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.5%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the pressure on profitability [3] Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively enhancing its product development and promotion to adapt to market changes, introducing new products to maintain competitiveness [2][3] - There is a focus on expanding the sales network in emerging markets while refining strategies in mature markets to tap into market potential [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion, 5.66 billion, and 5.94 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 430 million, 480 million, and 520 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The second quarter of 2025 continued to show operational pressure, with revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit of 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and expanding its market presence to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 5.94 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profits for the same period are 428 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 517 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The total number of distributors increased to 971 by the end of H1 2025, with a net addition of 18 distributors compared to Q1 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in its core business segment of bread and pastries [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.55% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 203.83 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [3]. - Total profit decreased by 27% to 271.53 million yuan [3]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a slight decline of 0.9% [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The bread and pastry segment generated revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, down from 2.98 billion yuan, a reduction of 400 million yuan [3][4]. - The production and sales volume of the bread and pastry category are decreasing, while inventory has increased by 19.42% [4]. Capacity Expansion - Despite the increase in inventory, the company is expanding its production capacity, with 24 production bases in operation and 2 under construction [4]. - The new production bases in Shanghai and Foshan are designed to have capacities of 30,000 tons and 69,000 tons, respectively [4]. Regional Performance - The company reported losses in the East and South China regions, with revenues of 845 million yuan and 181 million yuan, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous year [4]. Distribution Channels - The company utilizes both direct sales and distribution through dealers, targeting large chain supermarkets and smaller local stores [4]. - The total number of national distributors decreased to 971, a reduction of 9 compared to the previous year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Tao Li Bread (603866) in the first half of 2025 shows a significant decline in both revenue and profit, reflecting the deep challenges faced by traditional baking companies amid consumer upgrades and channel transformations [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% [1] - For the full year of 2024, revenue fell by 9.93% to 6.087 billion yuan, and net profit decreased by 9.05% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw an even larger revenue decline of 14.2% and a net profit reduction of 27.07% [1] - The gross margin remained around 23%, slightly recovering from the first quarter but still below levels seen before 2022, indicating ongoing cost pressures and underutilization of capacity [1] Market Competition - The baking sector has seen an influx of cross-industry competitors, with traditional giants like Dali Foods and Binbao accelerating their presence in the short-shelf-life market, intensifying market competition [2] - Tao Li's brand premium is diminishing, and terminal sales are slowing down due to this price war [2] - The company's R&D investment dropped sharply by 31.84% in 2024, with an R&D expense ratio of only 0.38%, significantly lower than the industry average of 3.2% [2] Channel and Product Strategy - The company heavily relies on supermarket channels for revenue, which has been challenged by competitors promoting their own in-store baked goods and new retail formats enhancing supply chain advantages [2] - Tao Li has lagged in emerging channels like instant retail and community group buying, missing out on online traffic opportunities [2] - Consumer demand for low-sugar and high-fiber baked products is rising, but the company's product line remains focused on traditional sweet bread, with slow progress in health-oriented transformations [2] Regional Expansion Challenges - The company's national expansion strategy has faced setbacks in southern regions, particularly in South China, where revenue has significantly declined due to differences in consumer habits, regional brand competition, and high supply chain costs [3] - Despite new production bases in East and Central China, low capacity utilization and depreciation costs are eroding profits [3] - Although wheat prices have decreased from their 2023 highs, they remain elevated, compounded by rising oil prices, which continue to pressure gross margins [3] Strategic Adjustments - In response to these challenges, the company is implementing multi-dimensional adjustments, including accelerating its presence in instant retail and community group buying by partnering with platforms like Meituan and Pinduoduo [3] - Product upgrades are underway, with the introduction of low-sugar and whole grain products, as well as exploring co-branded and seasonal limited-edition products [3] - The second half of 2025 will be a critical period for assessing the effectiveness of these strategic adjustments [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company continues to face external demand pressures, but is actively pursuing product and channel transformations, including the launch of several new products and partnerships with emerging channels such as Sam's Club and Hema [7][8] - The revenue decline in the core market has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, and the expansion into new markets is showing gradual results [7] - The company is expected to stabilize its profit margins in the second half of 2025 after experiencing increased depreciation and advertising costs due to new project launches [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.0%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 23.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.8%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 67.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.21 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.3% [2][15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 574 million yuan in 2023 to 459 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [2][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.29 yuan for both 2025 and 2026 [7][15] Market Position and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of 8.8 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2025 [3][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 8.5% [3] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 27.5% [3]

一、报告期经营情况 1、 产品类别 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：603866 证券简称：桃李面包 公告编号：2025-045 桃李面包股份有限公司 关于 2025 年半年度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 产品类别 | 本期营业收入 | | --- | --- | | 面包及糕点 | 2,585,208,650.17 | | 其他 | 26,216,583.39 | | 总计 | 2,611,425,233.56 | 2、 地区分布 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 区域 | 本期营业收入 | | --- | --- | | 华北地区 | 594,370,874.37 | | 东北地区 | 1,044,181,861.78 | | 华东地区 | 845,489,333.01 | | 华中地区 | 114,142,122.08 | | 西南地区 | 320,172,114.59 | | 西北地区 | 172,967,274.36 | | 华南地区 | 180,687,659.77 | | 分部间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on its core business, while maintaining a "buy" rating from analysts [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, down 27.1% year-on-year - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 79 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 27.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from bread and pastries was 1.19 billion yuan, down 14.4% - Other products generated revenue of 93 million yuan, an increase of 15.1% - Regional performance showed that only the Central China region experienced growth, with revenue of 50 million yuan, up 7.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year - The sales expense ratio was 8.6%, down 0.2 percentage points; the management expense ratio was 2%, up 0.2 percentage points; the R&D expense ratio was 0.4%, down 0.1 percentage points; and the financial expense ratio was 0.7%, up 0.2 percentage points - The net profit margin was 7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Capacity and Market Strategy - The company has established production bases in 24 regions across the country, with a total capacity of 237,000 tons - New production bases in Shanghai and Foshan are under construction, expected to release an additional 99,000 tons of capacity - The company is enhancing partnerships with emerging retail channels and exploring new retail models to strengthen brand competitiveness [3]. Earnings Forecast - EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.34 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.39 yuan, respectively - Corresponding dynamic PE ratios are expected to be 17 times, 16 times, and 15 times [3].