Q2 毛利/四费同比-1.2/+1.1pcts，盈利承压。25Q2 公司毛利率为23.8%，同比-1.2pcts，预计主要系收入 规模下降固定成本摊薄效果有限。费用方面，25Q2 销售费用率为8.4%，同比+0.7pcts；管理费用率 2.2%，同比+0.4pcts；研发/财务费用率为0.4%/0.5%，同比+0.01/0.02pcts，四费合计+1.1pcts。综合影响 下，25Q2 公司归母净利率为8.5%，同比-2.3pcts；扣非净利率为8.2%，同比-2.2pcts。 适应变化主动调整，期待后续经营恢复。公司持续完善全国市场布局，在持续重点关注华东、华南市场 基础上，积极拓展西南市场、新疆市场；对于成熟市场加快销售网络细化下沉，挖掘市场潜力；针对市 场消费行为出现不同程度的分流及分化，结合头部客户个性化产品需求为给客户提供全套产品方案。展 望看，短保行业具备提升空间、外埠市场仍待拓展，公司在这一阶段完善销售网络布局，持续调整产品 结构、布局新兴渠道以适应消费需求变化，后续待需求进一步恢复、规模效应释放，经营效率有望进一 步改善。 投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为54.1/5 ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The second quarter of 2025 continued to show operational pressure, with revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit of 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and expanding its market presence to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 5.94 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profits for the same period are 428 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 517 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The total number of distributors increased to 971 by the end of H1 2025, with a net addition of 18 distributors compared to Q1 [2]

桃李面包交出一份营收、净利双下滑的半年成绩单。桃李面包近日发布的财报显示，今年上半年营收同 比下降13.6%，归母净利润同比下降29.7%。对于上半年营收利润双降的原因，桃李面包并未在财报中 给出明确解释。细看财报可以发现，在业务层面，作为桃李面包核心业务的面包及糕点品类收入出现下 滑。在渠道层面，其东北、华东、华北三大核心市场营收也全面下降……当下的桃李面包正面临产品与 渠道双重考验。 桃李面包主要销售模式为"中央工厂+批发"模式。过去几年，桃李面包在短保面包市场有着一定的地 位，根据《2024年短保面包行业白皮书》信息，2023年，桃李面包以35%的市场份额位居中国短保面包 市场第一位。 但随着近几年短保面包市场竞争愈发激烈，桃李面包也面临不小挑战。知名战略定位专家、福建华策品 牌定位咨询创始人詹军豪在接受北京商报记者采访时表示，桃李面包的"中央工厂+批发"模式能通过规 模效应控制成本。但如今短保面包市场强敌环伺，不仅有宾堡、曼可顿、盼盼、美焙辰等烘焙品牌争夺 市场，还有诸多商超以及"前店后厂"式的烘焙店纷纷加入竞争，桃李面包优势正被新兴品牌稀释。 或许意识到上述问题，桃李面包也在尝试布局健康导向的新产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company continues to face external demand pressures, but is actively pursuing product and channel transformations, including the launch of several new products and partnerships with emerging channels such as Sam's Club and Hema [7][8] - The revenue decline in the core market has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, and the expansion into new markets is showing gradual results [7] - The company is expected to stabilize its profit margins in the second half of 2025 after experiencing increased depreciation and advertising costs due to new project launches [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.0%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 23.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.8%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 67.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.21 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.3% [2][15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 574 million yuan in 2023 to 459 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [2][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.29 yuan for both 2025 and 2026 [7][15] Market Position and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of 8.8 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2025 [3][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 8.5% [3] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 27.5% [3]

8月15日，桃李面包发布2025年半年报。当中披露，2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入26.11亿元，较上 年同期下降13.55%；公司营业利润和利润总额分别为2.66亿元和2.72亿元，分别较上年同期下降27.42% 和27.00%；归属净利润2.04亿元，同比下滑29.70％。 （企业公告） 此外，公告还指出，归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润及扣除非经常性损益后的基本每 股收益同比下降30.03%，主要是由于部分新建项目投产后折旧费用同比增加导致本期毛利率下降以及 本期广告及宣传费用增加所致。 公告表示，在原有单品的基础上，公司不断加强新产品的开发和推广，加快产品更新速度，每年通过引 进先进的生产设备并加以改良形成自身独特的生产工艺，结合新原料，推出与市场上具有明显差异化的 产品，提高产品附加值。2025年半年度公司推出了芝士肉松蛋糕、碱水面包丁、蔓越莓葡萄软面包、爆 浆牛角面包和拉丝蛋糕等一系列新产品，来适应当前消费习惯和消费潮流的变化趋势，保持产品竞争 力，满足消费者多样化的需求。 ...