短期低位反弹
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LPG:成本支撑显著,宏观风险仍存,丙烯:成本支撑,短期低位反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:49
Group 1: Report Title and Core Views - The report is titled "LPG: Significant Cost Support, Macroeconomic Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Rebound from Low Levels" [2][3] - The core view is that LPG has significant cost support but still faces macro risks, while propylene is supported by cost and shows a short - term rebound from low levels [2][3] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,356 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.88%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PG2512 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.49%, and its night - session price dropped 0.05% to 4,234; PL2601 closed at 6,154 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.15%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PL2602 closed at 6,211 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.40%, and its night - session price rose 0.14% to 6,220 [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - For PG2511, yesterday's trading volume was 17,245, a decrease of 897 from the previous day, and open interest was 16,040, a decrease of 5279; for PG2512, trading volume was 73,452, an increase of 6427, and open interest was 92,674, a decrease of 1563; for PL2601, trading volume was 10,211, an increase of 4587, and open interest was 10,340, a decrease of 332; for PL2602, trading volume was 5,167, an increase of 2542, and open interest was 5,207, a decrease of 117 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 44 yesterday, down from 82 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 104, down from 142; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 74; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 54, down from - 9; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 59 [3] Industrial Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 71.7%, up from 68.8% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 67.8%, up from 63.1%; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, slightly down from 45.1% [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [6] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Cargo Prices - On October 23, 2025, the November CP paper cargo price for propane was 461 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 458 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper cargo price for propane was 470 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd.'s PDH Phase I from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [8] LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, like Huaxing Petrochemical in Shandong starting a full - plant maintenance on October 22, 2024, until November 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection from October 17, 2025, to early December 2025 [8]