Group 1 - The global situation is highly uncertain, and major powers must manage globalization risks, with six irreversible trends emerging: digitalization, low-carbon green transformation, financialization, urbanization, aging, and new-type globalization [1] - The current shift in globalization is towards a new type, which cannot be reversed, as seen in the attempts of the Trump administration to alter its course [1] - China is experiencing rapid development in digitalization and is leading in low-carbon green transformation, but the understanding and systems related to financialization are lagging, which hampers international competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Urbanization in China is facing challenges, with a significant gap between household registration urbanization rate and permanent population urbanization rate, weakening internal dynamics and economic growth [2] - There are approximately 290 million migrant workers in China, and achieving full urban citizenship for them at the current pace may take decades, raising questions about readiness for accelerated urbanization [2] - The evolution of trends brings macro risks that are expanding, necessitating effective management of public and macro risks during this transition [2]

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [1] - The Indonesian government has increased the 2025 nickel ore quota to 364 million tons, but mining has been affected by rainfall, leading to tight overall supply [1] - Recent price movements in nickel ore have shown a slight decline, with domestic 1.3% nickel ore transactions settling at CIF 43 and CIF 44.5 [1] Group 2 - The refined nickel market lacks significant contradictions in fundamentals, with continued oversupply limiting price increases [2] - Short-term market sentiment is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, while the reality of consumption remains pessimistic [2] - The overall expectation for the nickel market is weak, with macro uncertainties and high nickel-iron inventories contributing to a bearish outlook [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Panetta, highlights that macroeconomic risks stem from conflicting signals in U.S. trade policies and the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 1 - The U.S. trade policy is presenting contradictory signals that could impact global economic stability [1] - The recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran is contributing to macroeconomic risks [1]

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Crude oil is waiting for the OPEC meeting to drive the market, while aromatics have confirmed a breakdown, and polyolefins continue to be weak. Most varieties in the sector are rated as bearish in both the medium and short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks this week due to issues like US and Japanese bond auctions and a rising VIX index. OPEC+ is expected to accelerate production increase in the medium - term, and short - term US refined oil inventories are rising. There is a possibility of new Iran nuclear deal [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Closed down more than 1% today, with short - term pressure at 461 [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but high - profit led to early resumption of previously shut - down plants, increasing supply. Pure benzene faces arrival pressure, and downstream demand is hard to improve [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, new low with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7195 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7195 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates. Downstream PTA's operating rate is rising, and PX is in a de - stocking phase. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 6775 [9]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 6720 [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: PTA plant operating rates are rising, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Downstream polyester operating rates are firm. However, the cost factor may dominate after crude oil decline [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 4800 [13]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 4750 [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. Export profits are rising, but short - term exports are hard to increase [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, oscillated today. Short - term pressure at the high point on May 26 [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 6980 [16]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates increased, with high import expectations in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and it is under pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level downward structure, continued to decline today. Short - term pressure at 2255 [17]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at the high point on May 22 [17]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Terminal automobile and tire inventories are at high levels, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, and domestic inventories are accumulating against the season [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the oscillation range with new low and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 14550 [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [19]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: April real - estate data is still poor, and downstream demand is hard to improve. Plant maintenance is gradually ending, and supply is expected to increase [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4980 [22]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [22]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates decreased slightly, but arrivals increased. Downstream polyester load remains high [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the short - term support at 4315 with a long - negative line and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4405 [23]. - **Strategy**: Transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 4405 [23]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7120 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7120 [25]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, increasing butadiene supply. Butadiene storage capacity is low, and price may fall after inventory accumulation. Terminal demand is weak [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Long - negative line with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 11580 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 11580 [27].

原油继续等待驱动: 聚烯烃类偏弱,芳烃类偏强 | 品種 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 空単持有 | | EB | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空単持有 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PP | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空単持有 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空単持有 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空単持有 | | EG | 偏空 | 偏多 | 小时观望,15分钟空单持有 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 震荡区间上沿逢高空 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 寻反抽结束做空机会 | | BR 橡胶 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空単持有 | 板块观点汇总 (一) 原油: 逻辑:海外宏观路径依旧不清晰,但近期美债目债拍卖出现滞销, 特朗普再提关税, VIX 指数有所抬头,警惕宏观风险可能;供需方面 中期 OPEC+继续加速增产，6 月 1 日的部长级会议市交易的时间下一 次节点,短期美国成品油出现累库,留意美国需求不 ...

2025年5月12日 周浩 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7582 +852 2509 7214 [Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 [Table_Summary] 贸易谈判初见曙光，宏观风险再定价？ 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 彭博贸易不确定指数 黄金价格（美元/盎司，右轴） 宏观风险有所降温，黄金高位震荡 资料来源： Bloomberg ，国泰君安国际 宏 观 研 究 报 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 4 告 Hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk 市场关注的焦点是中美于周末在日内瓦进行的贸易谈判，从初步结果来看，中 美双方都表达了善意，也都表示谈判取得了重要的成果。对于市场而言，这无 疑是一针强心剂，消息公布后，避险资产如黄金、日元和债券价格出现下跌， 人民币则领衔亚洲货币继续上攻。 与过去几次的中美谈判相比，本次谈判双方表示会发出联合声明， ...

有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...

有色金属周报 20250511 宏观风险降温，金属价格震荡 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 本周（05/06-05/09）上证综指上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2%，SW 有色 指数上涨 1.57%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金下跌-1.57%，COMEX 白银下跌-1.95%。工业 金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.78%、-0.52%、+0.40%、 +1.83%、-0.75%、-0.62%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 1.95%、-1.97%、-1.5%、-3.09%、-1.21%、+0.19%。 ➢ 工业金属：海外宏观方面多空交织，美国 4 月非农就业超预期和失业率稳定暂缓 衰退担忧，但一季度 GDP 年化收缩 0.3%叠加潜在关税又使经济停滞风险升高；国内 开启降准降息及公积金利率下调，宏观利好氛围不变，工业金属价格震荡。铜方面，供 应端，本周 SMM 进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.11 美元/干吨，周度环比减少 0.5 美元/ 干吨。Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂的年中长单谈判预计将于月底正式开启，鉴于当前恶 劣的现货市场环境和严 ...