格隆汇2月26日｜世界黄金协会指出，当前，人们对经济前景的信心程度与经济政策的不确定性之间存 在的显著差异，是黄金在过去一年表现最佳且今年迄今仍表现良好的关键原因之一。尽管可能有人担心 黄金超买，可能会难以找到愿意进行小规模投资的买家，但就战略层面而言，黄金的持有量仍然偏低。 目前，投资者面临的核心问题是如何在市场前景的确定性与政策不确定性之间合理配置资产组合。没 错，投资者能够并且应当认识到推动市场上涨的货币和基本面因素——尤其是在 2026 年还有更多宽松 政策即将出台的情况下。但估值过高和持续存在的宏观风险需要谨慎对待，这凸显了多元化投资组合的 必要性。由于地缘政治和美国政策的不断变化影响着资产配置，我们认为应当关注优质资产，比如黄 金。 ...

从更广泛的宏观背景观察，地缘局势的不确定性依旧是支撑金价的重要因素。市场对于主要经济体财政状况、货币政策独立性以及主权资产配置结构的讨论 不断升温，使部分资金倾向于配置具有避险属性的资产。此前金价在创下阶段高位后经历快速回调，但近期已收复相当部分失地，表明中长期配置需求仍然 存在。 不过，当前环境下美元指数保持相对韧性，实际利率水平并未明显回落，这对黄金进一步上行构成一定制约。短期走势更可能表现为区间整理而非趋势性突 破。若后续宏观风险再度升级，或政策不确定性进一步放大，黄金仍有机会获得新的上行动能；反之，若风险情绪缓和，则可能继续维持震荡格局。 OEXN认为，黄金在连续四个交易日上涨后出现回落，市场在高位开始进入震荡整理阶段。此前由于贸易政策不确定性以及中东局势紧张情绪升温，避险资 金持续流入，推动金价强势反弹并重返关键心理关口上方。不过，随着部分亚洲交易者在假期结束后回归市场，短线获利了结压力显现，价格一度回吐涨 幅，显示多空分歧正在加剧。 在OEXN看来，本轮波动更多属于强势上涨后的技术性修正，而非趋势逆转。此前金价在短时间内累计涨幅较大，市场情绪明显升温，叠加美元走势反复， 使得资金在高位采取更为谨慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macro risk sentiment has weakened due to Trump's increase of global tariffs from 10% to 15%, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin (BTC) prices in Asia, which fell below $65,000, triggering approximately $230 million in long liquidations [1] Group 1: Market Impact - BTC's current price is significantly below the average mining cost of approximately $84,000, indicating increased liquidity pressure on mining companies [1] - Bitdeer has liquidated its BTC reserves, and some mining companies are shifting towards AI business ventures [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market selling pressure is more restrained compared to earlier in the year, with options skew not significantly widening [1] - ETF fund flows appear to resemble basis trading liquidation rather than a complete withdrawal, suggesting that positions are being adjusted rather than disappearing entirely [1]

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-12 盘面震荡偏强运行，节前注意地缘风险 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.38%，报2860元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.32%，报3357 元/吨。 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，尽量规避地缘风险，节前轻仓运行 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，尽量规避地缘风险，节前轻仓运行 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前来看形势仍未完全明朗。短期需要保持谨慎，密切关注局势发展。 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油近期市场结构偏强运行，下游船燃需求良好，国内炼厂对委油的原 料替代也促进了燃料油的进口需求。但市场暂无短缺预期，俄罗斯1月发货量明显回升，将传递到亚洲2月份到港 量的增加上。整体来看，在地缘局势相对可控的前提下，高硫燃料油自身基本面不具备持续走强的动力，尤其在 高运费的环境下，估值过高会抑制下游炼厂端需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前基本面矛盾不明显，科威特等局部地区供应存在增量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report For Soybean Meal - The overall supply and demand of soybean meal are loose, with pre - holiday supply and demand remaining stable and potential risk disturbances after the holiday. The CBOT soybean futures price rebound is limited, and the market will trade repeatedly between the expectations of supply tightening and South American bumper harvest. The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2860 [6]. For Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed meal market continues to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly affected by news related to imported rapeseed supply. The rapeseed meal 05 contract will return to the trading range of 2200 - 2430. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [50]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal International Situation - The new US bio - diesel policy boosts soybean oil demand, increasing the expected soybean crushing volume in the US and supporting the US soybean futures price. Brazil's soybean production is raised, and it has entered the harvest season with a high probability of a bumper harvest, which restricts the rebound of futures prices. South American soybeans are about to enter the peak shipping season, and there may be selling pressure on CNF premiums. The future trading focus of the US soybean futures lies in the implementation progress of US soybean demand and the final confirmation of South American production. The planting area of new - crop US soybeans may shrink [6]. - According to the USDA's January supply - demand report, the global and US soybean ending stocks are expected to increase, with the US soybean production slightly up, exports down, and crushing up. The annual average price is expected to decrease [7][8]. - The ratio of US soybean to corn has decreased, which may reduce the planting area of new - crop US soybeans. The February US Agricultural Outlook Forum and the March planting intention report will provide more guidance [12]. Domestic Supply and Demand - Due to the price advantage, China's demand for imported soybeans mainly comes from South America. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has rebounded. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's soybean production and exports will increase in the 2025/26 season. Although China has adjusted tariff measures, commercial purchases of US soybeans are still difficult, and mainly policy - based purchases are carried out [14][17][19]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at ports is decreasing, and long - term purchases are being carried out gradually. The procurement progress of different shipment months in 2026 varies [26][29]. - The operating rate of oil mills has declined slightly, but the crushing volume is still higher than the same period last year. In January 2026, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume decreased from the previous month but increased year - on - year [30][33]. - Before the holiday, downstream replenishment continued, leading to a reduction in oil mill soybean meal inventory, which supported the spot price and basis. In January, the inventory of national oil mill soybean meal decreased slightly, and the year - on - year increase continued to expand [34][36]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of the soybean meal 05 contract is 290 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 contract spread is - 102 yuan/ton [41]. Rapeseed Meal International Situation - The ICE rapeseed futures price first fell and then rose last month. The new US bio - diesel policy boosted soybean oil demand, driving up the vegetable oil market. The improvement of China - Canada economic and trade relations, with China expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products, led to an increase in rapeseed futures prices. The settlement price of the rapeseed futures main contract increased by 6.43% month - on - month [49]. - Statistics Canada raised the forecast of new - crop rapeseed production in 2025 to a record 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [53]. Domestic Supply and Demand - The improvement of China - Canada economic and trade relations is expected to improve the supply structure of rapeseed products. Chinese oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at a low level. Due to the low - season of winter aquaculture, the demand for rapeseed meal feed is small, and oil mills have stopped operating. The market is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal price is expected to repair the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal after a decline, which may trigger protein substitution demand [49]. - There are no new purchases of imported Canadian rapeseed, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills is at a low level. The arrival volume of rapeseed at major oil mills in February is about 120,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills in the 5th week is 58,000 tons [62][63]. - Rapeseed crushing plants have basically stopped operating. In the 5th week, the operating rate of rapeseed crushing plants is about 0%, and the rapeseed meal output is 120 tons [67]. - In the off - season of demand, the downstream trading volume of rapeseed meal is small, and the提货 volume is at a low level compared with the same period last year. In the 5th week, the 提货 volume of coastal rapeseed meal is 200 tons, and the spot trading volume of the rapeseed meal market is 7000 tons [68][70]. - Oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is zero, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal at ports is continuously decreasing. In the 5th week, the oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is 1000 tons, the granular rapeseed meal inventory is 121,000 tons, and the consumption is 20,000 tons [72][74]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of the rapeseed meal 05 contract is 264 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 contract spread is - 21 yuan/ton [80]. Spread Summary - The soybean oil - meal ratio is 2.94, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 474 yuan/ton [84].

美国银行最新指出，在黄金与白银从历史高位大幅回落之后，贵金属市场的剧烈波动恐将持续，投资者 短期内仍需面对"高震荡环境"。 该行表示，从波动率指标来看，当前黄金价格的不稳定程度已达到自2008年金融危机最严重时期以来的 最高水平；而白银市场的动荡程度更是创下自1980年以来的极端纪录。 回顾上月，黄金与白银在投机资金推动、地缘政治风险升温，以及市场对美联储独立性担忧加剧的背景 下持续飙升，延续了强劲涨势。然而，这轮狂热行情在上周末戛然而止，黄金遭遇十多年来最大单周跌 幅，白银更录得史上最惨烈的单日下跌。 美国银行欧洲、中东及非洲地区大宗商品交易主管Niklas Westermark表示："未来市场波动将长期高于 历史平均水平，但除非再次出现新的投机泡沫，否则不会像过去几天那样极端。" ADM Investor Services在报告中指出，上周末部分投资者趁高获利了结，而本轮快速下跌为市场重新布 局黄金提供了"新的入场窗口"。 白银同样大幅反弹，主力合约上涨8.2%，报每盎司83.042美元，显示资金在剧烈调整后开始回补仓位。 Westermark认为，相比白银，黄金具备更稳固的长期投资逻辑，价格高企与波动上 ...

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | | | 菜油 | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨,全部成交,底价 4050元/吨，成交均价4298元/吨，溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中,且方向尚不明确, ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-03 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 市场波动加剧，盘面大幅回撤 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌7.01%，报2681元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌5.92%，报3128 元/吨。 近期能源板块整体上涨背后有来自宏观、地缘、资金面等多重因素的驱动，上周五特朗普提名凯文沃什作为新一 任美联储主席，美元指数低位反弹，宏观情绪有所转弱，大宗商品流动性整体出现阶段性退潮。站在地缘层面来 看，上周伊朗局势较为紧张，市场担忧美国与以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，导致油市地缘溢价一度大幅攀升。周 末并未爆发冲突，从伊朗和美方最新表态来看局势有边际缓和的迹象，地缘溢价有所回落。在前期推涨因素退潮 后，昨日能源板块整体出现大幅下跌，高硫燃料油与伊朗关联较为紧密，之前上涨时弹性较大，回撤时幅度同样 大于低硫燃料油。 站在基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油呈现"东强西弱"格局，亚太地区现货收紧，新加坡库存连续下滑，国内注册 仓单量减少，排除宏观与地缘层面的扰动外，自身市场结构仍存在支撑。低硫燃料油整体市场矛盾 ...

今年以来，股票市场的波动性远低于其他几乎所有市场，而贵金属、货币和大宗商品市场的波动性则更 大。 2026年第一个月，尽管人们对人工智能股票泡沫的担忧持续存在，但真正的市场波动却发生在其他领 域。黄金价格飙升至历史新高，随后在上周五遭遇自上世纪80年代以来最大幅度的下跌。由于市场猜测 美国将干预汇率以提振日元，美元跌至自4月份关税引发市场暴跌以来的最大跌幅，而特朗普关于收购 格陵兰岛的言论也令交易员感到不安。原油价格飙升至8月份以来的最高水平。但与此同时，芝加哥期 权交易所波动率指数(VIX)低于过去一年的平均水平。 芝加哥期权交易所全球市场衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示："地缘政治风险是当前市场波动加剧的 主要驱动因素——从黄金、石油和外汇市场相对于其他资产类别的大幅波动即可看出这一点。股票市场 的波动主要体现在个股层面，目前VIX波动率指数几乎没有反映宏观风险。" 今年以来，受美国总统特朗普颠覆国际秩序和攻击美联储独立性(导致美元贬值)的政策支撑，金价一路 飙升，势头强劲。即使在上周五下跌9%之后，金价仍创下1999年以来最大的月度涨幅，其绝对价格、 ETF看涨期权交易量以及相对于股票的波动率均创 ...

1月27日，受隔夜外盘市场剧烈波动影响，广期所铂、钯期价盘初大幅下挫，其中铂期货主力2606合约 一度跌超8%。随后市场情绪有所修复，铂、钯期价跌幅收窄。截至当日下午收盘，广期所铂期货主力 2606合约下跌4.6%，报705.7元／克；钯期货主力2606合约下跌2.08%，报523元／克。 业内人士认为，铂、钯价格走势主要受金属板块情绪带动，价格波动较大，表明市场分歧较大。 值得注意的是，1月26日，针对部分品种价格近期波动较大的情况，广期所发布风险提示称，期货公司 应切实履行风险管理职责，强化客户交易行为合规监管和风险防范，提醒投资者依规、谨慎、理性参与 交易，确保市场平稳运行。同时，广期所将坚持严监严管主基调，持续强化市场监管，严肃查处各类违 规行为，加强实际控制关系账户调查、认定，发挥"五位一体"监管协作合力，依法严厉打击市场操纵行 为，维护市场秩序。 顾冯达认为，在宏观风险上升的背景下，贵金属市场维持强势格局。铂族金属继续扮演跟涨角色，其走 势大概率取决于贵金属市场的情绪风向。在贵金属板块外溢效应下，铂族金属价格或呈现宽幅震荡走 势。 华联期货分析师曾可认为，短期铂、钯价格或仍受金属板块情绪及地缘政治 ...