1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Bullish" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the zinc market may face a series of high - impact and low - predictability events, with macro - expectations' sharp swings likely to cause price overshoots frequently. Macro risks have reached an absolute high in the past five years. Risk exposure management should be prioritized, and position management and hedging operations are more important than accurately predicting the equilibrium point [1][18][22] - Overseas mining companies have significantly revised down their production guidance. With geopolitical disturbances and intensified resource competition, the expected supply gap overseas may widen. In China, the increase in zinc concentrate production is mostly expected in the second half of the year, and imports from major sources are temporarily blocked. The smelting - mining balance may tighten in the second quarter, and domestic TC is under pressure, with smelter production cut pressure becoming clearer later [1][138] - In the second quarter, domestic smelters may maintain high operating rates, while the probability of overseas smelter production cuts is still tied to geopolitics. High - risk smelters are mainly in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and disturbances are more likely to occur later. There is a differentiation and structural shift in domestic and overseas demand. Overseas demand is generally weak, while domestic demand can be viewed optimistically. The inflection point of global visible zinc ingot inventory may have arrived, but there may be no shortage of zinc ingots at home and abroad in the second quarter [2][139] - In the second quarter, zinc prices face multiple and unpredictable continuous macro risks, and there is a risk of a sharp decline due to systematic risks in extreme cases. However, the long - term supply of zinc ore is tightening, TC is under pressure, and demand shows no sign of weakening. If there is a sharp decline, it is likely to be a mispricing. A long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and some cash should be reserved for risk hedging. In terms of arbitrage, the expectation of loose domestic and tight overseas supply may reverse, and long - term domestic - overseas positive arbitrage may not run smoothly. Zinc prices may be low in the front and high in the back, with the main operating range of [22,500, 24,500] [3][139] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report was bullish on zinc prices in 2026 in the annual report, expecting higher volatility and an initially weak domestic and strong overseas fundamental situation. In the first quarter, zinc prices first rose and then fell, and then fluctuated around 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton, which was basically in line with expectations. In January, zinc prices reached a new high in nearly four years, driven by geopolitical risks and optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, in late January, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman reversed the expectations of monetary policy easing, and zinc prices fell with the market. In February, zinc prices entered an adjustment period. In March, after the US - Iran conflict, macro factors dominated price fluctuations, and zinc prices were under pressure [13] 3.2 When Macro Uncertainty Becomes Certainty, Risk Control May Be the Top Priority - In the second quarter, zinc trading may be more focused on macro factors. Geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, and the probability of black - swan events is increasing. Trump's policy style is complex and changeable, and events such as geopolitical situations, tariff expectations, and the US election are highly uncertain. The US - Iran conflict is difficult to ease in the short term, and energy prices are likely to remain high. The US mid - term elections are approaching, and Trump's poll support rate has declined. The US debt credit crisis is eroding the safe - asset attribute of global US - dollar assets, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching a critical point. The S&P 500 VIX is rising, and the gold - platinum ratio indicates a high - risk window for the US stock market from the second quarter to the end of 2026. Macro risks have reached an absolute high in the past five years, and price fluctuations may be more affected by macro - expectations. Risk exposure management should be prioritized [18][19][22] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Mine End: The Expected Gap of Overseas Zinc Mines May Further Widen, and TC Will Continue to Run Under Pressure - Overseas, in Q4 2025, zinc concentrate production decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the 2026 production guidance was significantly lowered. Geopolitical disturbances have changed the overseas zinc mine expectation from loose to tight. In 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 12.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 652,000 tons (YoY + 5.5%). In Q4 2025, the overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.288 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,000 metal tons (YoY + 3.6%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15,000 metal tons (QoQ - 1.2%). In 2026, the sample enterprises' production guidance decreased by 11% year - on - year. In the first quarter, overseas zinc mine production expectations changed greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, production guidance adjustments, and weather effects. In the long - term, overseas zinc mine supply may further decline. Domestic zinc concentrate production in January - February 2026 was 519,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,000 metal tons (YoY + 5.6%), and most of the domestic zinc mine increment is expected in the second half of the year. In January - February, domestic zinc concentrate imports increased by 17.5% year - on - year, but the import window closed again. The inflow of imported zinc ore is restricted, and the TC of imported and domestic zinc ore is likely to be under pressure in the second quarter [26][31][33] 3.3.2 Overseas Smelting: The Energy Price Center Rises, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Possibility of Production Cuts by Smelters in Japan, South Korea, and Europe - In January 2026, the global refined zinc production was 1.156 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons (YoY + 1.68%). The 2026 Benchmark was set at $85/ton, slightly higher than in 2025, indicating that the shortage of overseas zinc mines has not improved significantly. Due to the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, natural gas prices have risen significantly, and smelters in Europe, Japan, and South Korea may face production cut risks. In Europe, although the current electricity price has not reached the extreme level in 2022, and the overall energy cost pressure of zinc smelters is relatively controllable in the short term, Japanese and South Korean smelters face greater cost pressure. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the impact of El Niño on power supply. The affected zinc smelters may reduce production by 50,000 - 400,000 tons [41][46][50] 3.3.3 Domestic Smelting: Smelting Profits May Be Under Pressure, but High Operating Rates of Smelters Are Difficult to Reduce - In January - February 2026, domestic smelter production was 1.065 million tons (YoY + 6.2%), and after the Spring Festival, smelters resumed production on a large scale. The domestic TC has been fluctuating, and after the US - Iran conflict in March, the imported TC showed a marginal decline. By - product prices are differentiated, and zinc smelting profits are oscillating at a high level. Domestic zinc smelters' raw material inventory is at a relatively high level, but some smelters highly dependent on imported ore still face supply pressure. If the geopolitical situation deepens, the TC of imported ore may continue to decline, and smelting profits may be under pressure. The discussion on smelter production cuts may be more likely to occur in the second half of the year. In January - February, domestic refined zinc imports decreased by 61% year - on - year, and the import window has been closed. It is expected that domestic refined zinc imports will remain at a low level in 2026 [54][62][67] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 The Initial Downstream Performance Is Weak, and Exports Are the Main Support - In January - February, domestic refined zinc demand was slightly weaker than the same period last year. In March, the downstream showed marginal improvement, and the supporting factors were the tower field and galvanized exports. The domestic galvanized plate market has weak domestic demand and strong exports. The domestic inventory of galvanized coils accumulated to a relatively high level during the Spring Festival, and the inventory clearance was slow. However, the export performance was excellent, and the orders from Japan, South Korea, and Europe increased. In the long - term, anti - dumping and export policies may have a certain suppressing effect. The die - casting zinc alloy sector is generally weak, with low domestic demand and limited export growth. The zinc oxide demand shows a structural differentiation, with poor performance in traditional application fields. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are at a low level, and the downstream has a certain elasticity to buy on price increases [68][70][76] 3.4.2 The Efficiency of Fund Allocation Improves, and the Physical Workload Is Expected to Recover in the Second Quarter - In January - February, fixed - asset investment started to recover, and the speed of fund allocation increased. The government's fiscal policy is more active, and the deficit rate in 2026 is 4%. As of March 20, local bond issuance exceeded the plan by 5.5%. The issuance progress of new special bonds is slightly ahead of last year. The new special bonds in January were mainly invested in traditional infrastructure fields, and the proportion of non - new projects increased. The actual operation shows that the investment growth rate of the three major general infrastructure fields is stable, and the new contract amount of key enterprises is expected to increase. The infrastructure physical workload is generally low, and the power sector is expected to become an important support in the future. The real estate sector still lags behind the seasonality, and the drag on zinc consumption may be marginally alleviated, but the rebound space is limited [79][80][90] 3.4.3 Durable Consumer Goods Demand Is Weak at Home and Strong Abroad, and Consumption Is Expected to Improve in the Second Quarter - In the first quarter, durable consumer goods demand was generally weak, with a pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas demand. In January - February, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year, mainly due to policy and market factors. However, automobile exports increased significantly, driven by the advantages of the domestic automobile industry chain. In the second quarter, domestic automobile demand may recover marginally, and exports are expected to remain strong. The domestic home appliance market showed a weak recovery in domestic demand and an unexpected rebound in exports. In the second quarter, domestic home appliance demand is expected to further improve, and exports may maintain stable growth [100][105][110] 3.4.4 Energy Price Increases Raise Inflation Concerns, and Some Overseas Demand May Be Converted into Domestic Exports - In January, overseas refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year, with good performance in India, Europe, and the United States. The export of zinc primary processed products showed different trends in the first two months, with zinc alloy and zinc oxide exports increasing. The export demand may change over time and is highly related to geopolitical evolution. In the short term, orders from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are concentrated in China, but in the medium - term, exports to the Middle East may be affected. In the long - term, some overseas demand may be converted into domestic exports [114][121][123] 3.5 Global Zinc Ingot Visible Inventory May Enter the Decline Stage - From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, zinc ingot inventories at home and abroad accumulated successively, and the global visible zinc ingot inventory increased significantly, suppressing zinc prices. Overseas, the LME zinc inventory increased twice, and then gradually decreased due to consumption. In China, zinc ingot inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival due to production release and slow consumption recovery. In the second quarter, domestic zinc consumption and exports may increase, and the inventory inflection point may have appeared, but the inventory clearance speed may be relatively stable [130][137] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - Macro aspect: In the second quarter, macro risks are at an absolute high in the past five years, and risk exposure management should be prioritized. - Smelting - mining balance: Overseas supply expectations may further deteriorate, and domestic zinc concentrate increment is mostly in the second half of the year. The smelting - mining balance may tighten in the second quarter, and domestic TC is under pressure. - Zinc ingot balance: Domestic smelters may maintain high operating rates, and overseas smelter production cuts are related to geopolitics. Domestic demand can be viewed optimistically, while overseas demand is weak. The global visible inventory inflection point may have arrived, and there may be no shortage of zinc ingots at home and abroad in the second quarter. - Trading aspect: In the second quarter, zinc prices may face a sharp decline due to systematic risks, but in the long - term, zinc is still valuable. A long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and cash should be reserved for risk hedging. Zinc prices may be low in the front and high in the back, with the main operating range of [22,500, 24,500]. - Strategy aspect: For single - side trading, a long - term buy - on - dips strategy is recommended, and short - term risks should be avoided. For arbitrage, a positive inter - period arbitrage strategy can be adopted, and domestic - overseas positive arbitrage should be observed for the time being [138][139][141]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures market followed the decline of crude oil, and the cost - side trend was unclear. The conflict in the Middle East has not ended, and the supply - side contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term sharp fluctuations in the single - side market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 24, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon was 4401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan/ton or 3.66% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 240,464 lots, a decrease of 16,940 lots compared with the previous day, and the trading volume was 1,047,662 lots, an increase of 178,529 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 4556 - 4580 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4300 - 4400 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton in South China, and 4570 - 4590 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions increased to varying degrees, while those in other regions were generally stable. The supply of asphalt spot resources in some areas was tight, which supported the market sentiment [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term sharp fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Spot - futures: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [2] Figures - There are multiple figures including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month contract, the trading volume and open interest of the asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt, the production of independent refineries and asphalt in different regions, and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market experienced wide - range fluctuations last week, with the price center moving down. Macro risks persisted, and the trading momentum of funds in the new energy sector weakened. The fundamentals remained in a state of increasing supply and demand. Geopolitical conflicts led to increased market uncertainty, and the previous over - valuation of the lithium carbonate market and the flow of funds to other sectors weakened the trading momentum of the new energy sector. The short - term unilateral driving force of the market is limited, and it will mainly undergo wide - range shock adjustments. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, with the main contract fluctuating between 150,000 - 165,000 yuan. As of March 13, the main futures contract LC2605 fell 2.61% to 152,080 yuan, and the trading activity decreased. The weighted contract's total open interest was 623,000 lots. In the spot market, as of March 13, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, both down about 2.8% week - on - week. The spot price mainly followed the futures market, and there were differences in market sentiment. Downstream buyers increased purchases at low prices but were less accepting of high - priced goods [3]. Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have not shown significant signs of easing. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will continue strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and may open new battlefronts if necessary, increasing the uncertainty risk from overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Supply - Last week, production continued to increase. After the Spring Festival, the planned maintenance of upstream salt plants gradually ended, and most enterprises resumed production, driving up supply. In March, imports from Chile were sufficient to provide some supplementation. As of March 12, the weekly production of SMM lithium carbonate was 22,590 tons, an increase of 768 tons week - on - week. In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 tons month - on - month but a 35% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,930 tons, a decrease of 10,510 tons from the previous month but a 36% increase year - on - year; the production of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,160 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous month but a 35% increase year - on - year. The production in March is expected to increase to 106,390 tons [3][42]. Demand - The overall demand outlook is optimistic. The power terminal's power - carrying capacity has increased significantly, and leading energy - storage enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. Downstream production schedules remain resilient. With rigid orders, the material production is expected to remain stable. In March, the production schedules of battery cells and materials are expected to increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in lithium iron phosphate and relatively weak performance of ternary materials. In February, the demand for lithium carbonate was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 13,180 tons from the previous month but a 47.5% increase year - on - year. Affected by the holiday in February, the demand in March is expected to increase to 132,845 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 19% [3][72]. Inventory - Last week, the inventory in all links continued to decline, but the decline rate further slowed down. The inventory of upstream smelters decreased, while downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory last week, and the inventory of battery cell manufacturers and traders decreased overall. As of March 12, the total sample weekly inventory was 98,958 tons, a decrease of 415 tons week - on - week; the smelter inventory was 16,291 tons, the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, and the inventory in other links was 37,020 tons. As of March 12, the total number of warehouse receipts was 36,455, a decrease of 385 during the week [3][64]. Price - The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the spot market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases. The trade premium and discount remained strong, and the domestic - foreign price difference converged. The raw material price was firm, and the short - term port arrivals decreased. The prices of major materials fluctuated at a high level [4][12][21][29]. Production - The production continued to increase, and the maintenance gradually ended. In March, the production is expected to increase significantly, and the supply in major production areas has recovered. According to SMM, in March, the estimated production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is about 65,400 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous month; the production of lithium carbonate from mica is expected to be 13,930 tons, an increase of 2,610 tons; the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes is expected to be 16,440 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. In terms of regional production, the production in the three major main production areas of Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the lithium carbonate production in Jiangxi in March will be 26,680 tons, an increase of 2,460 tons from the previous month; the production in Sichuan is expected to increase by 7,200 tons to 18,200 tons; the production in Qinghai is expected to increase by 1,700 tons to 14,350 tons [35][42][47]. Capacity and Operation - The upstream smelting capacity continued to expand, but the operating rate decreased, and there was a trend of flexible production lines switching to lithium carbonate production. The capacity continued to expand, and the central value of lithium carbonate production has significantly increased. Some new projects are gradually ramping up, driving up the lithium carbonate capacity. Currently, there is limited room for improvement in the operating rate of leading enterprises. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate in February decreased significantly. According to SMM, the monthly lithium carbonate capacity in March is expected to be 157,700 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous month, and the lithium hydroxide capacity is 52,200 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate in February was 48%, a decrease of 8% from the previous month; the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 38%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month [48][50]. Import - The average monthly import volume of lithium carbonate currently remains around 15,000 - 25,000 tons, and the recent imports are relatively stable. The import structure is relatively stable, and the import regions are still mainly in South American countries such as Chile and Argentina. According to Chile's shipping data, domestic downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to supplement raw materials through imported lithium salts, and the import volume in March may increase significantly. Customs data shows that in December, the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.5 tons from November. In terms of the import country structure, the import data from Argentina and Chile both increased in December. In February, Chile's total lithium salt exports were 33,900 tons of LCE, a 14% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The lithium carbonate export volume was 26,800 tons, accounting for 79%, an increase of 21%; the lithium sulfate export volume was 122,100 physical tons; the lithium hydroxide export volume decreased to 942 tons [51][56]. Demand Details - **Iron Lithium Production Schedule**: Affected by seasonal subsidy cuts, the power terminal data was weak, but the seasonality of lithium iron phosphate was diluted under the support of energy storage. In February, the production of major materials decreased month - on - month due to the holiday. In March, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was significantly revised upwards. After the end of the holiday impact on two - wheeled vehicles and 3C consumption, the supply is expected to gradually recover, and the production schedules of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are expected to increase slightly. According to SMM, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,400 tons, an increase of 82,200 tons month - on - month. The monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium in March is expected to be 8,480 tons, an increase of 1,760 tons month - on - month; the production of manganese - acid lithium in March is expected to be 10,310 tons, an increase of 2,490 tons month - on - month [73][80]. - **Ternary Material Production Schedule**: In March, the production of ternary materials is expected to increase overall. Although the seasonal impact is gradually digested, the weakening of the terminal and the structural squeeze of lithium iron phosphate still have an impact, and the increase in the production schedule of ternary materials is less than that of lithium iron phosphate. Structurally, it is expected that the production schedules of medium - and high - nickel materials and NCA will be significantly revised upwards, while the production of low - nickel materials accounts for a small and stable proportion. According to SMM data, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,360 tons, an increase of 13,640 tons month - on - month. Among them, the production of 3 - series materials is expected to remain at 30 tons, the production of medium - and low - nickel ternary (5/6 - series) materials is expected to be 10,220 tons and 40,180 tons respectively, with a larger increase in the production of medium - nickel materials; the production schedules of high - nickel ternary (8/9 - series) materials are expected to be 20,320 tons and 12,079 tons respectively, also showing a month - on - month increase; the production of NCA is expected to be 1,390 tons, with a relatively large month - on - month increase [81][85]. - **Waste Recycling**: After the overall increase in the lithium carbonate price center, the recycling end increased rapidly under high profits. In February, the recycling volume decreased overall due to the holiday. Structurally, there were slight differences between different materials, with a larger decrease in ternary material recycling and a slower decrease in lithium iron phosphate and cobalt - acid lithium. According to SMM, the total monthly recycling volume of domestic waste lithium batteries in February was 27,708 tons, a 26% decrease month - on - month but a 36.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, the monthly recycling volume of ternary waste materials was 10,720 tons, a decrease of 5,059 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of lithium iron phosphate waste materials was 14,026 tons, a decrease of 3,446 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of cobalt - acid lithium waste materials was 2,962 tons, a decrease of 1,196 tons from the previous month [86][88]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In 2026, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was adjusted from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, resulting in a decrease in subsidies for mid - and low - end models and a weakening of the purchase tax preference policy. The impact of seasonality and the pre - consumption due to policy withdrawal gradually emerged, and the new energy vehicle market has cooled down significantly since the beginning of the year. However, the power - carrying capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, and the market growth structure has also changed, gradually shifting to the joint drive of the steady growth of passenger vehicles and the explosion of commercial vehicles. According to the Passenger Car Association, in February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 464,000 units, a 32.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.06 million units, a 25.7% year - on - year decrease; the retail penetration rate in February was 44.9%, a 4% year - on - year decrease. In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 723,000 units, a 13.1% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.589 million units, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease; the manufacturer's wholesale penetration rate in February was 47.6%, a 1% year - on - year increase [89]. - **Power Battery Market**: In February, the production, sales, and installation data of batteries met expectations. Affected by seasonality, the data continued to weaken month - on - month, but the production increased year - on - year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominated the market share. On a monthly basis, the demand for ternary batteries in high - end new energy vehicles was relatively stable, while the demand in the economy - class electric vehicle market weakened more significantly, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries also contracted. According to the data of the Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% decrease month - on - month but a 41.3% increase year - on - year. The domestic power battery installation volume was 26.3 GWh, a 37.4% decrease month - on - month and a 24.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total installation volume, a 39.1% decrease month - on - month and an 11.4% decrease year - on - year; the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total installation volume, a 36.9% decrease month - on - month and a 27.5% decrease year - on - year [94][99]. - **Energy - Storage Market**: The production and sales of energy - storage batteries decreased seasonally, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained at a low level. In February, the production and sales data of energy - storage batteries decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained low [100].

Group 1 - Hong Kong bank stocks are under pressure, with HSBC Holdings down 3.13% to HKD 123.9 and Standard Chartered down 2.28% to HKD 162.8 [1] - The decline is influenced by a crisis of confidence in the private credit market and the situation in the Middle East [1] - JPMorgan's research indicates that potential credit losses from Middle Eastern loan exposure could lead to increased impairment charges, with HSBC's earnings per share and tangible return on equity expected to decline by 10% and 180 basis points, respectively, by 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered's earnings per share and tangible return on equity may decline by 14% and 184 basis points, respectively, by 2026, indicating higher sensitivity to the Middle Eastern conflict [1] - HSBC has a larger exposure to private credit risks, while Standard Chartered is more sensitive to the Middle Eastern conflict [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation is still unclear, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation of refineries. Asphalt prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices, and raw material supply. Before the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Middle East crude oil supply remains tight, and domestic asphalt refineries may face raw material shortages if the situation persists [1][2] Market Analysis - On March 11, the closing price of the main BU2604 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,874 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 52,914 lots, down 1,763 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 216,863 lots, down 160,256 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 4,056 - 4,430 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/ton; South China: 3,700 - 4,200 yuan/ton; East China: 3,890 - 3,890 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in East China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell slightly, while those in Northeast, North China, and Shandong regions rose. The spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. The tight spot circulation in some areas supported the asphalt spot market atmosphere. After Trump's statement on the cease - fire, the market's expectation of the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased. Coupled with the profit - taking behavior of long - position holders after the previous huge increase, oil prices have dropped significantly from the high point, and the cost - side support for asphalt has weakened marginally, causing the futures price to fall. However, there has been no substantial cease - fire between Iran and the US - Israel, the conflict continues, and the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. As of March 11, the number of passing oil tankers remained low. Saudi Arabia and other countries transported some crude oil to Red Sea ports for export through pipelines, which partially compensated for the gap in the strait but could not reverse the overall situation [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Figures - The report includes figures on various aspects of asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and position of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, regional production), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social inventories) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel is mainly influenced by macro - risks. In the short - term, macro factors dominate, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and be cautious. For nickel trading, it is in a high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For stainless steel trading, it also shows high - level oscillation, and one can buy after the macro sentiment stabilizes, while arbitrage should be put on hold for the time being [6][7][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: The global visible inventory of nickel reached 374,000 tons, increasing by 7,573 tons this week. Among them, the domestic social inventory increased by 7,999 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 426 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [17] - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of stainless steel started to decline, and the inventory of 300 - series and 400 - series was mainly destocked, which was in line with the seasonal characteristics after the Spring Festival resumption of work [10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January 2026, the refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and continue to reach a new high with the ramping up of new production capacity. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 24,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 452,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45%. It is estimated that the supply in January 2026 increased by 22% year - on - year [26] - **Demand**: The cumulative consumption of pure nickel in 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. In January 2026, it decreased by 2% year - on - year. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and the overall consumption slowed down [30] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Indonesian Nickel Ore**: The quota of Indonesian nickel ore is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia imported about 220,000 tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a 63% month - on - month decrease and a 94.77% year - on - year increase. In March 2026, the first - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased by 0.1 to $30.24 per wet ton, but the premium is expected to rise [32] - **NPI**: NPI prices increased following the rise of nickel ore prices. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is on the rise, and the import volume of nickel iron in China is also relatively large [33][35][36] - **Chromium - based Materials**: Chromium ore prices rebounded due to the 10% tax on chromium - based product exports in Zimbabwe starting from January 1, 2026. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in March 2026 was flat month - on - month [44] - **Profit**: The immediate profit of steel mills is in a loss state. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is about 14,850 yuan per ton, and the integrated cost reaches 14,350 yuan per ton [46] - **Supply**: It is estimated by Steel Union that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 4.506 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In February, production decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival maintenance. In 2025, China's total stainless steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [57] - **Demand**: Shipbuilding is still in a boom cycle, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [59] 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In January 2026, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. The production of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 938,000, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease, and the retail penetration rate was 38.6%. The cumulative production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, and it is expected to reach the January level in March [65] - **Global Market**: In 2025, the cumulative global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales in 2025 increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 22% year - on - year. In the United States, the cumulative sales in 2025 decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million, and in January 2026, it decreased by 25% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 increased by 103% year - on - year to 2.583 million, and in January 2026, it increased by 101% year - on - year [72] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. In 2026, government subsidies are inclined to mid - and high - end new - energy vehicles, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. The future ternary market needs high - nickel materials to break through the energy - density bottleneck [74] - **Intermediate Products**: The production of MHP and high - ice nickel is expected to increase. The new MHP production capacity in 2026 will exceed 400,000 tons, while the new high - ice nickel production capacity is only 83,000 tons. It is estimated that the two together can cover the increase in refined nickel and nickel sulfate, about 140,000 - 150,000 nickel tons [77] 3.3 March Supply - Demand Outlook - In mid - to late March, the supply - demand situation may improve marginally. If inventory destocking can be observed in the second half of March, the downward support for nickel and stainless steel prices will be stronger [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment, suppressing copper prices. There is a risk of a second - round correction due to continuous inventory accumulation. However, when the financial market has priced in risks and inventory accumulation ends, the market may enter a stage of rising risk appetite. The strategy is to maintain a layout at low prices [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina futures AO2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The price of Shanghai aluminum AL2604 closed at 24435 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.88%. The price of aluminum alloy AD2604 also declined. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The price of alumina is expected to be weakly stable [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices both declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore price and nickel - iron price are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is a demand for rigid restocking. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of light - position trial long near the cost line and monitor the inventory of primary nickel [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has risen, suppressing copper prices. The inventory has increased, and there is a risk of a second - round correction. However, there may be an opportunity when the market sentiment improves [1]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures all showed a weak trend. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore and nickel - iron prices are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is demand for restocking [3][4]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the price of scrap copper increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the price of lead concentrate also increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [5]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the price of imported nickel decreased. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [8]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][18][21][23][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [31][32][33][34][35][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [44][45][46][47][48][49]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal industry, have won many awards, and have in - depth research in different fields of non - ferrous metals [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined. The sudden conflict between the US and Iran has caused market turmoil, with panic and inflation expectations affecting the global financial market. LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons to 295,881 tons. In the short term, there are both macro - risks and fundamental pressures, and the accumulation of inventory may trigger a revision of the previous supply - demand expectations. The copper price may have a second - round correction risk, but when the market has priced in the risks and the inventory accumulation ends, and positive signals are released by China and the US, the market may enter a stage of rising risk preference. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina stopped falling and rebounded. The spot discount of aluminum ingots remained stable. The reduction of production by large northern alumina plants and the seasonal consumption of raw material inventory by electrolytic aluminum plants led to a slight reduction in alumina inventory. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some overhauled production capacity after the festival will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the alumina price will run weakly and stably. Due to the concentrated arrival of goods after the festival and insufficient manpower at the station, the logistics turnover efficiency is limited, and it is expected that the aluminum ingot inventory will continue to accumulate, with the peak likely to appear in mid - to - late March. The short - term supply - demand is in a mismatch stage, and attention should be paid to the improvement time of the aluminum ingot inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 2.77% to $17,205 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 2.55% to 136,300 yuan per ton. The LME inventory remained at 287,976 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons to 53,721 tons. The tightening of nickel ore quotas has led to a shortage of nickel ore supply, and the premium of nickel ore and nickel iron prices have strengthened. The cost is the core support for the nickel price. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still large. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line and the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price, and overseas macro - risks should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price decline, macro - impact from US - Iran conflict, inventory increase, short - term risk of price correction, long - term opportunity for risk preference recovery, and a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price strength, alumina price rebound, inventory changes, short - term supply - demand mismatch, and attention to inventory accumulation efficiency [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, cost support, and attention to inventory and cost - line trading opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 986 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,287 tons, and social inventory increased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of lead concentrate remained stable. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,888 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, the spot premium remained unchanged, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of pre - baked anodes decreased by 28 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,490 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 72,000 tons and alumina increased by 67,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,450 yuan/ton, the premium of 1 imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of nickel ore increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 590 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,036 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the zinc alloy and zinc oxide prices also decreased. The domestic TC remained unchanged, the inventory of SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 31,500 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 is not available, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%, the SMM spot price increased by 4,000 yuan/ton, and the price of tin concentrate increased by 13,400 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE increased by 12,253 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][15][16][18][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][21][22][23][24][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][27][28][29][30][31]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][40][41][43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, senior researcher of precious metals, intermediate investment analyst of gold, and has won many industry awards. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience and has published many professional articles [46]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won industry awards and has in - depth research in hedging accounting and information disclosure [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, current non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won industry awards and focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].

Core Viewpoint - The significant disparity between confidence in economic prospects and uncertainty in economic policies is a key reason for gold's strong performance over the past year and its continued good performance this year [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook and Gold Performance - Investors face the core issue of how to allocate assets between market certainty and policy uncertainty [1] - Despite concerns about gold being overbought, the strategic holding of gold remains low [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - Investors should recognize the monetary and fundamental factors driving market increases, especially with more easing policies expected by 2026 [1] - High valuations and ongoing macro risks necessitate a cautious approach, highlighting the need for a diversified investment portfolio [1] - Geopolitical changes and U.S. policy fluctuations are influencing asset allocation, suggesting a focus on quality assets like gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - OEXN observes that after four consecutive days of rising gold prices, a pullback has occurred, indicating a market entering a consolidation phase at high levels. The previous rise was driven by uncertainty in trade policies and heightened tensions in the Middle East, which led to a strong influx of safe-haven investments, pushing gold prices back above key psychological levels [6]. Group 1 - The recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a technical correction following a strong upward trend rather than a reversal of the trend [6]. - The market sentiment has shifted to a more cautious approach due to significant gains in gold prices and fluctuating dollar movements, leading to profit-taking among traders [6]. - OEXN highlights that the uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to exert pressure on risk assets while maintaining gold's appeal, although a unilateral breakout in gold prices is not anticipated [6]. Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a crucial factor supporting gold prices, with discussions around the fiscal conditions of major economies and monetary policy independence gaining traction [6]. - Despite a rapid pullback after reaching a high, gold has recovered a significant portion of its losses, indicating ongoing medium to long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The current resilience of the dollar index and stable real interest rates are constraining further upward movement in gold prices, suggesting that short-term trends may be characterized by range-bound trading rather than a breakout [7]. Group 3 - OEXN concludes that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with structural support remaining unchanged, but upward momentum requires new catalysts [7]. - Investors are advised to monitor dollar trends, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments while managing positions and risk exposure amid increased volatility [7].