对Harvey而言，这种反应基本合乎情理，但也印证了他的一贯观点：历经三年牛市推动股票市场上涨约 80%后，投资者已对风险变得麻木。期间虽有波动，最显著的是4月初美国总统唐纳德·特朗普首次公布 关税计划后持续数日的暴跌。但此后标普500指数强势反弹39%，每次回调都被视为买入良机。 华尔街多头若想在2026年实现连续第四年两位数回报，则需要诸多利好因素齐聚。美国与其邻国的贸易 紧张局势依然高企，美国经济显露疲态，即便历经三次降息后利率仍居高不下，而人工智能板块远非稳 操胜券。 地缘政治风险同样不容忽视。尽管美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动未冲击美国金融市场情绪，但突如其来的 行动提醒投资者：在这个经历着世代性地缘政治变革的世界里，任何交易理论都可能脆弱不堪。 CIBC Capital Markets股票与投资组合策略主管Christopher Harvey周一表示，"我们认为市场低估了宏观 风险 —— 而这次美国干预委内瑞拉的行动，正是我们未曾预见的宏观风险。" 迄今为止，华尔街对此次抓捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗的突袭行动反应平淡。标普500指数周一上涨0.6%，原油 价格小幅攀升。部分避险资产走强，尤以黄金和美国国债为甚。 ...

格隆汇1月6日｜加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场股票和投资组合策略主管Christopher Harvey指出，鉴于持 续的通胀，投资者对美联储今年将再执行两次降息的预期可能过于乐观。他还建议，在目睹股价近年飙 升后，美国企业界可能会调低对利润进一步增长的预期，从而削弱牛市案例的一个关键支柱。此外，正 如周末的事件凸显了2026年可能迅速重现的未知因素一样，Harvey警告称，接下来的几个月可能会 以"剧烈的风险厌恶期"为特征。他敦促客户通过转向高质量资产来为动荡做好投资组合布局。Harvey的 话值得倾听，因为他是去年少数几个正确预测股市将从4月关税动荡中迅速大幅反弹的策略师之一。华 尔街的其他人士也指出，虽然委内瑞拉事件本身是局限的，但投资者应保持警惕。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF (VO) currently lacks a compelling Buy thesis due to the absence of a positive macroeconomic backdrop necessary for investment [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF (VO) is not positioned favorably for investment at this time [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is conducted by a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management [1] - The analyst has a strong focus on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to identify high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The analyst previously held a Vice President position at Barclays, leading teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance [1] Group 3: Research Approach - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1]

有色金属日报 2025-12-22 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 日本如预期加息，日元走弱，美股继续回升，铜价上冲，周五伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.22%至 11870 美元/ 吨，沪铜主力合约收至 93560 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 3875 至 160400 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, raising concerns about its stability and potential further declines, with analysts warning of a possible retest of the $70,000 support level if the U.S. stock market continues to decline [1][4]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, erasing 30% of its gains for the year, with a peak of $126,000 on October 6, 2023, now down approximately 25% [1]. - Ethereum has also faced challenges, with a decline exceeding 35% from its August highs [1]. Liquidity Crisis - The recent downturn is characterized as a "two-phase decline," starting with macroeconomic risks and followed by a liquidity crisis that has led to increased volatility in the Bitcoin market [3]. - Following the October 10 crash, liquidity in the Bitcoin market has sharply decreased, causing even small trades to result in significant price movements [3]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is worsening, with reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a government shutdown impacting economic data releases, further dampening market sentiment [3]. - The tightening of liquidity is particularly affecting Bitcoin ETFs, which previously attracted over $100 billion but are now facing capital outflows [3]. Technical and Fundamental Pressures - Concerns persist that if the stock market experiences further profit-taking, cryptocurrencies may face a second wave of concentrated selling [4]. - Analysts warn that Bitcoin is still exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset, and further price declines are likely as uncertainties around AI valuations and interest rate cuts loom [4]. Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - There is apprehension among investors about a potential repeat of historical cycles, leading to preemptive market withdrawals to avoid significant downturns [5]. - However, some analysts believe the current sell-off is different from past crises, lacking systemic failures or credit contagion, and expect Bitcoin to reach new highs within 12 to 18 months once conditions stabilize [6]. Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are encouraged to view current price levels as attractive entry points, with some firms reporting record client investments in cryptocurrencies [6]. - Retail investors are advised to adopt dollar-cost averaging strategies and focus on understanding the fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than reacting to market headlines [6].

Core Insights - The recent wave of risk aversion in global financial markets has led to a significant decline in high-valued U.S. tech stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin, with nearly $900 million withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs [1] - The absence of "blind speculators" in the Bitcoin market has contributed to the ongoing downward trend, as there are fewer short-term traders willing to buy Bitcoin, leading to a collapse in demand [1] - Bitcoin has dropped below the $100,000 mark, with a decline of over 20% from its all-time high earlier in October, entering what is referred to as a "bear market" [1] Market Dynamics - CoinGecko reported a forced liquidation of $19 billion in the cryptocurrency market on October 10, erasing over $1 trillion from the total market capitalization [2] - Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $870 million, marking the second-largest single-day redemption since their inception in January 2024 [2][5] - The tightening liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is evident, with market depth decreasing by about 30% from its peak earlier this year [5] Investor Sentiment - The recent sell-off in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is synchronized with other risk assets, but the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies results in larger declines [5] - There is growing concern among traders regarding upcoming economic data releases, which could further exacerbate the sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [5] - The demand for neutral hedging options strategies, such as strangles and straddles, is increasing among cryptocurrency traders, indicating a shift towards managing volatility [8]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with nearly $900 million withdrawn from Bitcoin funds, causing Bitcoin prices to drop below $100,000 [1][3] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased by over $1 trillion due to a liquidation event that saw $19 billion in liquidations on October 10 [3][6] - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded approximately $870 million in net outflows, marking the second-largest single-day redemption since their inception [3][6] Group 1 - Investor sentiment is heavily influenced by risk aversion, leading to substantial withdrawals from Bitcoin funds [1] - Bitcoin's price fell by 2.8% to below $96,000, representing a decline of over 20% from its record high earlier in October [1][6] - The cryptocurrency market's liquidity has significantly decreased, with market depth down approximately 30% from its peak this year [6] Group 2 - The sell-off in cryptocurrencies is correlated with broader market risks, particularly as traders reassess the Federal Reserve's potential for short-term interest rate cuts [6] - There is an increasing demand for neutral strategies in the options market, indicating that traders are betting more on volatility [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price has faced downward pressure due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and better refinery profits. The zinc price lacks sustained upward momentum due to weak demand and hawkish remarks from the Fed [1]. - For lead, it is recommended to hold previous short positions. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.23%. The Shanghai lead basis was -165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai lead contracts showed various changes. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 220,300 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,645 tons, also unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. For secondary lead, supply has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume operations. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises have decent operations, with demand showing an increase [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.04%. The Shanghai zinc basis was -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai zinc contracts changed. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.97% to 67,774 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has received a rare "sell" rating from analysts due to concerns over its earnings outlook, macroeconomic risks, and Warren Buffett's impending retirement [1][4]. Group 1: Rating Changes - KBW analyst Meyer Shields downgraded Berkshire's rating from "market perform" to "underperform" [1]. - The target price for Class A shares of the Omaha-based conglomerate was reduced from $740,000 to $700,000 [1]. Group 2: Earnings and Cash Reserves - A decline in U.S. interest rates is expected to reduce the income generated from Berkshire's cash reserves, which amount to $36.61 billion [4]. - The potential departure of Warren Buffett is seen as a negative factor, reflecting his "possibly unmatched reputation," which may deter investors from relying on the company without his presence [4]. Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - The analyst noted that global economic uncertainty and risks associated with Berkshire's unique legacy could lead to performance issues, resulting in poor stock performance [4].