Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised its oil supply forecast for this year, now expecting an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day due to geopolitical tensions and demand disruptions [3][4]. Group 1: Oil Supply and Demand - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with Gulf countries reducing oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day due to limited shipping capacity and saturated storage facilities [5]. - The IEA predicts that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March, with over 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity at risk, particularly affecting the diesel and jet fuel markets due to export blockages [6]. Group 2: Strategic Oil Reserves - On March 11, the IEA announced that its 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, marking the largest release in the agency's history and the sixth time such action has been taken [8]. - While the release of strategic reserves provides a crucial buffer, it is considered a stop-gap measure, with the key to restoring the oil market lying in ensuring adequate insurance and physical protection for shipping to restore flow through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. Group 3: Oil Prices - Despite the announcement of the strategic reserve release, oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude futures surpassing $92 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 4%, and Brent crude futures returning above $95, with a rise of over 3.7% [9].

荷兰国际：若霍尔木兹海峡关闭，油价可能触及每桶120美元 金十数据6月18日讯，荷兰国际银行大宗商品策略师表示，石油市场最大的担忧是霍尔木兹海峡的关 闭，这将影响波斯湾的石油流动。全球近三分之一的海运石油贸易都要经过这个咽喉要道。石油流通的 严重中断足以将油价推高至每桶120美元。他们预测，在这种情况下，欧佩克的闲置产能将无助于缓解 市场紧张，因为大部分闲置产能位于波斯湾。在这种情况下，各国政府可能不得不动用其战略石油储 备，尽管这只是一个暂时的解决办法。 ...