1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - With the extension of the Strait's closure, the market realizes it won't reopen soon. Trump's re - insurance and naval escort have limited effects. The Strait's reopening requires a significant reduction in Iran's attacks on merchant ships, a new agreement between the US and Iran, or joint naval escort by multiple countries. In the short - term, oil prices are likely to exceed $100 per barrel, but high oil prices will impact demand and test the global economy. If the Strait event reverses, there will be a sharp decline in oil prices [2][47][49] - Oil prices are strongly driven up in the short - term due to the Strait's closure, but are also prone to sharp drops if the event reverses. It is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently, and using options to hedge risks is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Strait Continued Closure: Soaring Oil and Gas Benchmark Prices and Crack Spreads - Under the influence of the Strait's continuous closure, global energy prices have soared, including crude oil benchmarks, natural gas, and refined oil crack spreads. LNG has the largest increase, followed by refined oil prices and crude oil benchmark prices [8] - Among crude oils, Dubai, Oman, and Murban crude oil futures are the strongest, with Brent and WTI following passively. For natural gas, JKM has a larger increase than TTF, and HH has a relatively small increase. For refined oil, the crack spread increase order is jet fuel, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, gasoline, naphtha, and LPG [8][9] 3.2 Strait Closure Disrupts Global Energy Supply Chain - The Strait accounts for 33% of global crude oil exports, 20% of LNG exports, 14% of refined oil exports, and 30% of LPG exports. Most of the crude oil is exported to Asia - Pacific countries, and the import dependence of Asia - Pacific countries on Strait crude is high [13] - The export scale of refined oil through the Strait is 500 million barrels per day. Different refined oil products have different export destinations and import dependencies. The export scale of LNG through the Strait is 87.5 million tons per year, mainly exported to the Asia - Pacific region [15][26] - The Strait's closure affects the oil, refined oil, and natural gas industries in terms of transportation, production, and supply - demand balance [26][27] 3.3 Market Redundancy: Limited Bypass Capacity, Global High Crude Oil Inventory as Buffer but Needs Artificial Release - Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Persian Gulf have bypass capabilities, but due to various factors, the theoretical bypass capacity cannot be fully achieved, and it is estimated that only 200 million barrels per day can be increased in the short - term [30] - Global crude oil inventory is a market redundancy. The total global land - sea crude oil inventory is about 4.88 billion barrels, and the underground SPR inventory is about 500 million barrels. However, releasing SPR requires government actions, and there is uncertainty about the US's SPR release [30][31] 3.4 Vulnerability: Sanctions, Tight Refining Capacity, and High - Load Liquefaction Capacity Limit Supply Elasticity of Refined Oil and LNG - Western sanctions have fragmented the oil market. In the refined oil market, Europe is more dependent on the US and the Middle East, and the supply chain's resilience has decreased. In the natural gas market, the supply efficiency of Russian projects has been affected [41] - The global refining capacity has been reduced after the pandemic, and the growth of refined oil supply is slow, which will be further exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. The LNG market lacks supply elasticity, and the current EU natural gas inventory is at a historical low [42][45] 3.5 Winners and Losers in the Conflict - Winners include the US, Russia, Oman, non - Persian Gulf oil and gas - producing countries, coal, coal chemical industry, and oil transportation. Losers include Asia - Pacific oil and gas importers, Europe, and Persian Gulf producers [47]