1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday, with significant increases in WTI, Brent, and SC2604 contracts. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the crude oil pricing mechanism and causing a rapid decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - For fuel oil, the supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, while the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - For the polyester sector, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - For rubber, affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - For methanol, the arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - For polyolefins, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm in March, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - For PVC, the supply in March will remain at a high level, and the downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the oil price opened sharply higher on Monday. WTI 4 - month contract rose by 4.21 dollars to 71.23 dollars/barrel, a 6.28% increase; Brent 5 - month contract rose by 4.87 dollars to 77.74 dollars/barrel, a 6.68% increase; SC2604 closed at 566.9 yuan/barrel, up 55.9 yuan/barrel, a 10.94% increase. The conflict has led to the cancellation of war - risk insurance for ships, near - stagnation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and potential disruptions to oil facilities, changing the pricing mechanism and causing a decline in demand - country inventories. The SC oil price may show higher elasticity [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2605 rose 9% to 3186 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2605 rose 8.99% to 3757 yuan/ton. The supply of low - sulfur arbitrage goods from Northwest Europe in March will decrease, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient. After the holiday, downstream ship - fueling activities will gradually resume, and domestic refinery demand may support high - sulfur demand. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the prices of FU and LU to rise significantly and increase market volatility [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2604 rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan/ton. The asphalt market shows a situation of both weak supply and demand in the short term. In March, production will increase slightly, and demand depends on the start of post - holiday terminal projects. The escalation of the Middle - East situation may cause the BU price to rise with the oil price and increase market volatility [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5552 yuan/ton, up 5.75%; EG2605 closed at 3925 yuan/ton, up 6%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7836 yuan/ton, up 5.98%. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium of crude oil has increased, and the cost support of the polyester sector is strong. PX and PTA are almost at the daily limit, and ethylene glycol hits the daily limit. The geopolitical premium is expected to continue, and the polyester sector will follow the upward trend [5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2605 rose 90 yuan/ton to 17245 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 105 yuan/ton to 13870 yuan/ton, and the main contract of butadiene rubber BR rose 835 yuan/ton to 13465 yuan/ton. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a 17% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January decreased by 22% year - on - year. Affected by the war in the Middle - East and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, butadiene rubber strengthened during the day. It is the low - production season for rubber at home and abroad. The probability of a smooth start of domestic tapping in March is high. Although the heavy - truck sales in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, export orders are good, and the start - up repair momentum in March is strong. It is expected that the rubber price will be in a strong and volatile state [7]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2328 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's north line was 1910 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was 259 - 263 dollars/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 320 - 325 dollars/ton. The arrival in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load will put pressure on inventory reduction. The unclear situation in Iran will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn PP was 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of PP and PE were mostly negative. In March, the market is in a de - stocking rhythm, with little fundamental pressure. The short - term geopolitical risk will push up the crude oil price, and polyolefins will follow the upward trend. There is a possibility of the situation escalating [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East - China PVC market was stable, the price in the North - China market rose slightly, and the price in the South - China market increased for some materials. In March, enterprise maintenance is rare, and production will remain at a high level. The downstream industry's start - up rate is gradually rising, and rigid - demand procurement is gradually released. Although the export situation is expected to be good, the price increase is limited due to factors such as loose supply and limited rigid demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile state [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data monitoring of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes on March 2 and February 27, 2026, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - With the escalation of the Iran conflict, the war - risk insurance for ships in the Gulf region has been cancelled, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one - fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation, is almost at a standstill. As of Sunday, at least 150 ships, including oil tankers and LNG carriers, have anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters [12]. - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude - oil inventory is estimated to have increased last week, while the distillate and gasoline inventories may have declined. Analysts expect that as of the week ending February 27, the US crude - oil inventory increased by about 2.2 million barrels. The API will release the crude - oil inventory weekly report at 5:30 on Wednesday Beijing time, and the EIA will release it at 23:30 on Wednesday Beijing time [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [14][15][17][20][23][24][25]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [34][36][40][42][44][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including crude - oil internal - external spreads, crude - oil B - W spreads, fuel - oil high - low - sulfur spreads, fuel - oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene - glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural - rubber - 20 - number - rubber spread [49][51][53][55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production - profit and processing - fee charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [57][58]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst Award from Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [61]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy and Chemical Analyst Award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst title from Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industry Service Team Award from Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022 [62]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won the "New - star Analyst" award from Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [63]. - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, propylene, pure - benzene, polyolefin, and PVC analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in engineering and an intermediate economist title. He has won the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2024. His team has won the Best Energy and Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily in 2024 [64].