Report Date - The report was published on July 22, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For nickel, macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality restricts elasticity; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,550, with changes of 2,050 compared to T - 1, 1,450 compared to T - 5, etc.; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,905, with changes of 180 compared to T - 1, 190 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,799, and that of stainless steel main contract was 255,058 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) was 902, and the price of red earth nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59. For stainless steel, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) was 12,900, etc. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,230 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's governor proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue shutdown for maintenance from June to July, affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1,900 tons of nickel - iron production per month [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] indicating different levels of bullish or bearish views [5]