Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke are not considered as short - allocation in the black series. However, the high supply pressure and high inventory of steel will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. For coking coal, it is not recommended to use it as a short - allocation variety in the black series. For coke, the industrial sector can focus on hedging opportunities under low basis, and arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1200 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 41.63% and a historical percentile of 81.94%. The monthly price range of coke is predicted to be 1650 - 1850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 31.38% and a historical percentile of 67.08% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory hedging of coke, when coke production recovers rapidly and the spot supply - demand becomes loose, coke enterprises worried about price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at the price range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at (1830 - 1880). For procurement management of coking coal, due to factors such as repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine production, and inspections for over - production, coking plants worried about price increases can long - buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at the price range of (1200, 1250) and 50% at (1150, 1200) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of various black products on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15 are provided, including the daily and weekly changes. For example, the warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 21,922 tons compared to the previous day and 20,487 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream pre - festival replenishment improved the coking coal inventory structure, and there was a price - holding sentiment at the mine mouth, leading to a stop - fall and rebound of coking coal spot prices. The second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, the cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, and coking profits shrank rapidly. It is difficult to implement the third - round price cut before the festival [4]. 3.利多 and 利空 Interpretations - **利多 Factors**: Downstream pre - festival seasonal replenishment eased the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the mine mouth actively held prices. The difficulty of the third - round price cut of coke increased, and some coke enterprises tried to raise prices. After the second - round price cut, the profit of steel spot improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - involution" is the trading focus in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the coking coal and coke futures market. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **利空 Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, limiting the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides the coking coal and coke futures prices on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15, including the basis, price differences between different contracts, and some ratios [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke on 2025 - 09 - 22, 2025 - 09 - 19, and 2025 - 09 - 15 are provided, including domestic and imported coking coal, and different types of coke. It also includes the profit data of coking, coal import, and coke export [9][10].