Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI is real and strong, marking the arrival of the "Silicon-based Strong Intelligence Singularity" [10][16] - The semiconductor market is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, with a projected year-on-year growth of 10% to 15% [26] - The global semiconductor market size for Q2 2025 is estimated at approximately $179.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% [20][26] Demand Side Summary - Overseas Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are accelerating AI infrastructure development, leading to a semiconductor demand inflection point [21][22] - The global smartphone shipment volume is expected to increase by 8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a total shipment forecast of approximately 1.24 billion units for the year [27][41] - The global PC shipment volume is projected to grow by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 4% [30][33] - AI server shipments are expected to grow by 24% year-on-year in 2025, driven by increased demand from major cloud service providers [34][37] - The global sales of new energy vehicles are anticipated to reach 19.47 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% [38][42] Supply Side Summary - The wafer fab utilization rate is expected to recover to around 84% by the end of 2025, with strong performance in NAND equipment [44][45] - The inventory days for the top 60 global semiconductor companies are projected to decrease to a reasonable level of 105 to 110 days by the end of 2025 [20][26] Price Side Summary - The global semiconductor average selling price (ASP) is expected to rebound in 2025, driven by the implementation of AI at the edge [20][26] - The NAND contract price is projected to increase by 5% to 10% in Q3 2025 due to strong demand [7][26] Key Companies and Financial Metrics - Key companies in the AI hardware and semiconductor space include: - Luxshare Precision (AI hardware leader) with a market cap of approximately 275.65 billion CNY and a projected net profit growth of 26% in 2025 [5] - Haowei Group (CMOS leader) with a market cap of approximately 144.60 billion CNY and a projected net profit growth of 34% in 2025 [5] - Jiangbo Long (large-capacity storage leader) with a market cap of approximately 37.76 billion CNY and a projected net profit growth of 34% in 2025 [5]