硅料供应链
Search documents
工业硅、多晶硅日评:高位整理-20250825
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 04:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon price is expected to remain in high-level consolidation due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market, although bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently. For polysilicon, the price is also expected to maintain high-level consolidation with large fluctuations in the futures market, and continuous attention should be paid to macro sentiment evolution and warrant registration [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, while the demand from downstream industries is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.27% to 8,745 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: With the continuous increase in silicon prices, some previously shut-down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may come under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N-type dense material rose 4.35% to 48 yuan/kg; N-type re-feeding material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg; N-type mixed material rose 4.44% to 47 yuan/kg; N-type granular silicon rose 3.37% to 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.24% to 51,045 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some silicon material plants may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase month-on-month [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum, the price of some battery cells has loosened due to reduced orders and accumulated inventory, and the component price has continued to weaken due to low acceptance of high prices by the end market and the completion of overseas component export tax rebate stockpiling [1]. Market News - T1 Energy, a US solar manufacturer, has signed a cooperation agreement with Corning, a new silicon material manufacturer and materials giant, to purchase polysilicon and silicon wafers made in the US [1]. - Indian Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that India's domestic solar component manufacturing capacity has exceeded 100GW, compared with only 2.3GW in 2014. All capacities are included in the "Model and Manufacturer Approval List" [1]. - Huadian Group's 2025 - 2026 photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for bid sections one and two has opened bids. Bid section one has a scale of 18GW, and bid section two has a scale of 2GW. There are 26 enterprises bidding for bid section two, with a bid price range of 0.7076 - 0.8431 yuan/watt and an average price of 0.7461 yuan/watt [1].