1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is driven by stable demand and cost support, with a stable supply - demand balance and a trend of oscillating upward prices. In the long term, as production capacity is gradually released and the risk of overcapacity intensifies, the ferrosilicon market may face price adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to seize short - term market fluctuations and pay attention to the impact of power policies and raw material price changes on costs [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background - Since the anti - involution sentiment swept the commodity market, the ferrosilicon price has shown an oscillating upward trend, and production in various regions has gradually recovered. From August to mid - September 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon remained at a historical high, and the operating rate was stable. The weekly output of Ningxia, a major production area, reached a new peak, and the spot price continued to rise. In mid - to late September, the research team conducted a survey on ferrosilicon production in Ningxia, focusing on key production enterprises and warehousing and logistics, to provide data support for industry decision - making and price analysis [8]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Market Research Summary 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon: Stable Capacity Release in Major Production Areas and Tight In - Factory Inventory - Ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas generally use large - capacity electric furnaces for off - peak production. The unit power consumption is 7500 - 8500 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.39 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Most enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation. September was the last month of power subsidies, with a standard subsidy of 0.011 yuan/kWh·month. In October, Ningxia entered the power spot trading month, and most manufacturers believed the trading results would offset the reduction in subsidies. Currently, not all furnaces in Ningxia are operating at full capacity. Some manufacturers are under maintenance, and some operate only 30% of their total capacity. The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is low, with 10 - 20 days of raw materials. Except for large enterprises, the finished product inventory is very low. The sales model in Ningxia is different from that in Inner Mongolia, with a large proportion supplied to futures - cash traders, mainly in a "production by order + trade supply" mode. Most ferrosilicon factories in Ningxia have production orders until early October, and some until the end of October. They purchase raw materials locally. There is no plan to add new production capacity for now, but if the futures price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, some furnaces will resume operation [10]. 3.2.2 Cost Side: Rising Prices of Semi - coke and Electricity in September Support the Bottom of Ferrosilicon Prices - The production cost of ferrosilicon enterprises mainly consists of semi - coke, silica, and electricity, with electricity accounting for the largest proportion. The power cost in August and September increased compared to July but remained stable due to government subsidies. In October, with the end of subsidies and the start of power spot trading, the actual electricity price change is expected to be around 1 cent/kWh. In the short term, the marginal cost fluctuation is mainly in the semi - coke segment. During the research period, the ex - factory price of semi - coke in Fugu was 700 - 710 yuan/ton (plus freight of 110 - 140 yuan/ton). Some enterprises had cost advantages by stocking up at low prices. As of September 26, the price of small - sized semi - coke increased by about 50 yuan/ton, which may increase the ferrosilicon smelting cost by 60 yuan/ton. The silica price at the factory is mostly between 160 - 240 yuan/ton. The comprehensive power consumption is generally 8000 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.41 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Some enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation and power spot trading. The total cost of labor and depreciation is about 450 - 500 yuan/ton. The full cost in Ningxia during the research period was concentrated in the range of 5200 - 5650 yuan/ton. With the current offer of 5800 yuan/ton from HBIS, the profit margin is still tight, and the cost side may continue to support the bottom of ferrosilicon prices [11][13]. 3.2.3 Supply Side: High Elasticity of Capacity Release and Continuous Order Placement - The total designed annual production capacity of the seven surveyed ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia exceeds 1.4 million tons. The furnace types are mainly medium - and large - sized submerged arc furnaces of 33000KVA - 45000KVA, producing both common ferrosilicon and 75 ferrosilicon, with some focusing on low - aluminum and low - titanium ferrosilicon. Driven by profits, some manufacturers said the profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is relatively high. If the futures price fluctuates slightly, future production will focus on 75 ferrosilicon. If the price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, the idle capacity will fully produce common ferrosilicon, increasing supply pressure. Currently, the actual operating rate of most enterprises is lower than the designed full - production level, affected by market prices, power costs, and off - peak policies. The monthly output of the seven enterprises is about 85,000 tons, with an overall operating rate of about 73%, accounting for about 40% of the total output in Ningxia. The downstream orders are stable, and the production orders extend from September to November. Some enterprises have expanded overseas markets through exports. Overall, the production model of enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas is "production by order + low inventory", ensuring stable supply without increasing inventory. The supply side features large capacity, high elasticity of release, and continuous order placement, and can stably meet market demand in the short term [15][16]. 3.2.4 Detailed Research Minutes - **Ningxia A Enterprise**: Main products are common silicon and high - silicon. It has 8 furnaces of 40500KVA and 2 of 16500KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 350,000 tons. Currently, 4 furnaces are operating, and 6 are shut down. Production orders are until the end of September. The raw material inventory is about one month, and it purchases raw materials every half - month. The sales model is mainly futures - cash trading, with an average monthly volume of 4000 tons and long - term contracts of about 2000 tons. The full production cost is 5500 - 5650 yuan/ton [18]. - **Ningxia B Enterprise**: Mainly produces low - aluminum, low - titanium, high - silicon ferrosilicon (70% of capacity) and 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons. Currently, 1 furnace of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA are operating, with a full - production capacity of 160 - 170 tons/day and an off - peak production capacity of 130 - 140 tons/day. There is no inventory in the factory, and it produces by order, ensuring a monthly output of 3000 tons. Current production orders are nearly 25 days. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, supplying low - aluminum, low - titanium ferrosilicon to steel mills such as HBIS at an average monthly volume of 300 - 400 tons, with a price of the HBIS common ferrosilicon tender price plus 900 yuan/ton. It also exports to countries such as Japan and Turkey through the supply chain platform. 75 ferrosilicon is sold to magnesium enterprises for magnesium ingot production. The full production cost of common ferrosilicon is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. - **Ningxia C Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon (adjusts production of 75 ferrosilicon as needed). It has 6 furnaces of 35000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 220,000 tons. Currently, all 6 furnaces are operating without off - peak production, with an average electricity cost of 0.41 - 0.419 yuan/kWh and a monthly output of 18,000 tons. Production orders are until November. If the futures price rises to 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, it will hedge at most one - month's order volume. The sales model is mainly order - based production, with a maximum monthly order volume of 15,000 tons. It currently sells some silicon powder at a price about 600 yuan/ton lower than that of common ferrosilicon [20]. - **Ningxia D Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon. Currently, it operates 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 45000KVA (alternating for off - peak production), with an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons and a current monthly output of 6000 tons. Production orders are until the end of October. The raw material inventory is 10 - 15 days. It requires 50 - 60% advance payment for sales. The comprehensive power consumption is 8000 kWh/ton, and the current electricity cost is 0.41 yuan/kWh. During the spot trading month, it can reach 0.38 yuan/kWh. Waste heat power generation can save 200 - 300 yuan/ton in costs [21]. - **Ningxia E Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon recently. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA. Currently, 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA are operating, with the 25000KVA furnace producing 72 ferrosilicon, and a monthly output of 5000 tons. Production orders are until the end of September, and there is currently 700 - 800 tons of inventory. It has a large inventory of low - price semi - coke. The comprehensive power consumption of 72 is 7800 kWh/ton, and the electricity cost is 0.417 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 is 8100 kWh/ton, and the full production cost is 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton [21]. - **Ningxia F Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA, and currently 1 is operating. The second furnace is expected to start next month. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, with a limited - volume and fixed - price monthly supply of 1500 tons. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 ferrosilicon is 8000 kWh/ton [22]. - **Ningxia G Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 450,000 tons, it mainly produces common ferrosilicon. It has 8 furnaces of 45000KVA and mainly controls raw material and spot inventory. Its in - factory inventory is relatively sufficient compared to others [22]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon Market Expectation: Short - Term Oscillation Upward, Long - Term Overcapacity Warning - The surveyed enterprises generally believe that the main contract of ferrosilicon may be affected by the coking coal market and anti - involution funds, with the futures price oscillating upward, driving up the price of semi - coke and increasing the cost of ferrosilicon. There is a growing call for eliminating backward production capacity, and small - sized furnaces in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia may accelerate the capacity replacement process. However, after the market sentiment stabilizes, high supply and inventory may suppress the futures price. Two points should be continuously monitored: (1) The change in the hot metal output on the steel - making demand side. If the demand in the fourth - quarter peak season remains high and the hot metal output stays at a high level, the ferrosilicon inventory can support consumption. (2) The change in the demand for magnesium. Historically, the supply of magnesium increases in the fourth quarter, supporting the demand for ferrosilicon. Currently, low - price magnesium is scarce. The profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is much higher than that of 72. If the supply of magnesium recovers, some manufacturers may switch to producing 75 ferrosilicon. If the demand for magnesium is lower than expected, the high supply and inventory of 72 ferrosilicon may compress profits and force enterprises to shut down and reduce production [23].