Economic Environment - The U.S. exhibits high uncertainty in its economic and financial environment, while China is characterized by "certainty," with major uncertainties being addressed, including real estate and local debt issues[1] - China's policy emphasizes maintaining "certainty" and preparing for economic work, highlighting "bottom-line thinking" and comprehensive plans[1] Investment Insights - China's financial market volatility is expected to be lower than that of the U.S., influenced by external uncertainties and domestic stability[2] - The focus is on internal demand and self-sufficiency in the context of ongoing external shocks, making these areas key for capital market attention[5] Policy Measures - Six key policy measures are outlined, including accelerated fiscal policies and new monetary tools, aimed at stabilizing the economy without contractionary policies[2][16] - Emphasis on developing service consumption and supporting struggling enterprises through various measures, including a new "technology board" in the bond market[3][16] Real Estate and Employment - The overall strategy for real estate remains focused on controlling new growth while managing existing stock[4] - Policies are aimed at ensuring livelihoods and employment, indicating a stronger social safety net[4] Market Strategy - The current market is viewed as a "golden pit" for investment opportunities, with expectations of continued support from domestic policies against low prices and asset sell-offs[5][17] - The focus on external trade stability and diversified layouts is crucial for maintaining market confidence[19] Debt Market Strategy - The debt market strategy involves leveraging the rotation of beta and alpha, with a focus on discovering yield spreads, particularly in mid-term and long-term bonds[25][26] - Recent trends show a compression of spreads in mid-term bonds, while long-term bonds face pressure from the issuance of special government bonds[25] Risk Factors - Risks include potential downturns in real estate, slower-than-expected recovery in consumption, and escalating overseas risks[13] - The macroeconomic recovery may not meet expectations, with potential impacts on related industries and domestic exports[13]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告目录 | 一、宏大视角学习会议精神:以确定性应对不确定性… | | --- | | 1、应对美国遏制的方法 | | 2、中美经济金融市场当下的重要特征:美国"不确定性"&中国"确定性" 4 | | 3、中国政策致力于维护"确定性" … | | 4、对今年的投资理念启示:中国金融市场波动率或会小于美国 . | | 二、落地视角学习会议精神:具体做法有六大抓手,没有收缩性政策 . | | 1、财政"加紧"，货币金融"新工具" | | 2、大力发展服务消费 . | | 3、产业方面帮困助优 . | | 4、改革开放+企业走出去 . | | 5、地产总体思路依然是控增量+化存量 . | | 6、保民生与就业 . | | 附录:政治局会议内容对比 | 报告正文 一、 宏大视角学习会议精神：以确定性应对不确定性 我们认为 4 月 25 日政治局会议通稿中的核心题眼是"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，这句 话即点明了应对美国遏制的方法、也恰好点明了当下中美经济金融市场的背景特征、同时也对未来一段时间的投 ...