最近有一次出差，抵达上海时已近深夜，许是太久没坐高铁，一路头疼得厉害。回到家后，我匆匆洗漱 完便上床歇息。临睡前，想着帮家人约好第二天早上六点半的车，当时只看到出租车预约成功，快车却 始终处于"正在找车"的状态。我想着一个平台、一部手机，总归应该约的是一辆车，便没再多留意，转 身就睡了。 没想到第二天一早，平台竟同时匹配到了两部车。我让家人先上了那部显示有清晰行车轨迹的出租车， 另一部则先搁置着，打算先看看平台的处理方案，若实在协调不了再付款。 这么一折腾，我也彻底没了补觉的心思，索性早起拨通了客服热线。客服的服务态度倒是不错，坦诚说 是平台系统出了疏漏，还承诺后续会优化改进。恰好这时，家人发来消息说已经到车站了，我悬着的心 落了地，又躺了会儿才起身。 恰在这时，水水发来信息，提议说"不如聊聊未来十年"。其实这个话题，之前在北京和朋友们聚会时也 聊起过——大家都忍不住感慨，时间过得越来越快，身边的人和事渐渐变得越来越陌生，生活里的不确 定性也越来越多，常常让人觉得力不从心、身不由己。 细想下来，对"确定性"与"不确定性"的追逐，从来都不只是简单的生活困惑，它既是文化议题，也是哲 学命题，更深刻藏着中西方的文化 ...

Economic Environment - The U.S. exhibits high uncertainty in its economic and financial environment, while China is characterized by "certainty," with major uncertainties being addressed, including real estate and local debt issues[1] - China's policy emphasizes maintaining "certainty" and preparing for economic work, highlighting "bottom-line thinking" and comprehensive plans[1] Investment Insights - China's financial market volatility is expected to be lower than that of the U.S., influenced by external uncertainties and domestic stability[2] - The focus is on internal demand and self-sufficiency in the context of ongoing external shocks, making these areas key for capital market attention[5] Policy Measures - Six key policy measures are outlined, including accelerated fiscal policies and new monetary tools, aimed at stabilizing the economy without contractionary policies[2][16] - Emphasis on developing service consumption and supporting struggling enterprises through various measures, including a new "technology board" in the bond market[3][16] Real Estate and Employment - The overall strategy for real estate remains focused on controlling new growth while managing existing stock[4] - Policies are aimed at ensuring livelihoods and employment, indicating a stronger social safety net[4] Market Strategy - The current market is viewed as a "golden pit" for investment opportunities, with expectations of continued support from domestic policies against low prices and asset sell-offs[5][17] - The focus on external trade stability and diversified layouts is crucial for maintaining market confidence[19] Debt Market Strategy - The debt market strategy involves leveraging the rotation of beta and alpha, with a focus on discovering yield spreads, particularly in mid-term and long-term bonds[25][26] - Recent trends show a compression of spreads in mid-term bonds, while long-term bonds face pressure from the issuance of special government bonds[25] Risk Factors - Risks include potential downturns in real estate, slower-than-expected recovery in consumption, and escalating overseas risks[13] - The macroeconomic recovery may not meet expectations, with potential impacts on related industries and domestic exports[13]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告目录 | 一、宏大视角学习会议精神:以确定性应对不确定性… | | --- | | 1、应对美国遏制的方法 | | 2、中美经济金融市场当下的重要特征:美国"不确定性"&中国"确定性" 4 | | 3、中国政策致力于维护"确定性" … | | 4、对今年的投资理念启示:中国金融市场波动率或会小于美国 . | | 二、落地视角学习会议精神:具体做法有六大抓手,没有收缩性政策 . | | 1、财政"加紧"，货币金融"新工具" | | 2、大力发展服务消费 . | | 3、产业方面帮困助优 . | | 4、改革开放+企业走出去 . | | 5、地产总体思路依然是控增量+化存量 . | | 6、保民生与就业 . | | 附录:政治局会议内容对比 | 报告正文 一、 宏大视角学习会议精神：以确定性应对不确定性 我们认为 4 月 25 日政治局会议通稿中的核心题眼是"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，这句 话即点明了应对美国遏制的方法、也恰好点明了当下中美经济金融市场的背景特征、同时也对未来一段时间的投 ...