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黑色金属数据日报-20250611
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 11:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has no prominent contradictions, with prices oscillating at low levels. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot-rolled coils and rebar are around the 20-day moving average on the surface, which is also the point range for re-entering hedging [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, coking coal auctions remain weak, but the lower support on the futures price is strong. Although the medium - and long - term bottom of coking coal has not been determined, short - term rebounds may continue due to capital games. There may be a short - term restocking market similar to that in March if the futures price continues to rise [6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets have fluctuating sentiment and enhanced price elasticity. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a trend of marginal increase in supply and a decline in costs. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - The iron ore market is mainly influenced by short - term news and sentiment. The downward trend remains unchanged, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in iron ore inventory and steel exports after the peak season [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - On June 10, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2970 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; HC2601 at 3085 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 at 663.5 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; J2601 at 1364.5 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; JM2601 at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; HC2510 at 3089 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2509 at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; J2509 at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; JM2509 at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [3]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of various varieties also showed corresponding changes on June 10 [3]. Spot Market - On June 10, the prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan/ton, and the prices of other spot products also had specific values and changes [3]. Market Analysis of Different Varieties - **Steel**: The spot trading is lackluster. There is no strong upward - driving force in the industry. The recent coal - coke market fluctuations are due to short - covering by short - sellers. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal auction is weak, with many unsuccessful auctions. The cost of coal for furnaces is decreasing, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The futures price of coking coal may continue to rebound in the short term, but the medium - and long - term bottom has not been determined [6]. - **Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon**: Supply has recovered, direct demand has weakened marginally, and cost support has declined. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed significantly. The downward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory and exports after the peak season [6]. Investment Suggestions - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [6]. - For coking coal and coke, be aware that the short - term rebound may not be over [6]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, participate through buying options due to the high price elasticity at low levels, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [6].