如何看待宏观不确定与市场波动？20251118 摘要 国内经济主逻辑为科技自立自强，面对全球不确定性，坚持做好自身事 务带来整体预期稳定溢价，权益市场表现良好，机构或进行阶段性止盈 切换。 预计未来利率将创新低，国债震荡偏强，为年底跨年配置蓄力。金融机 构负债与资产端短期错位将导致跨年配置行情，坚定看多利率创新低， 银行存单利率或降至 1.5%左右。 10 月经济数据"经济冷、物价暖"，受统计基数效应、去产能和反内卷 行动影响。出口和消费受去年高基数拖累，低基数效应贡献 CPI 涨幅， PPI 降幅收窄。 房地产市场自 2025 年 7 月进入下行周期，10 月房企拿地减少，土地出 让收入同比下降 27%，冲击地方财政收入，增量政策效果尚未显现，投 资数据改善或待明年。 2025 年 10 月个税环比增长 25%，归因于税收征管加强，互联网平台 涉税信息报送新规规范短视频平台带货主播等群体漏税问题，预计该趋 势将持续。 Q&A 近期市场波动的主要原因是什么？ 近期市场波动主要有几个方面的原因。首先是美国政府前段时间的停摆，导致 宏观数据中断，这加剧了市场对美联储相对鹰派降息预期的担忧，调低了降息 预期。其次， ...

Group 1 - Gold (XAU/USD) shows initial signs of strength but quickly loses momentum as market sentiment shifts, influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - The expectation for immediate interest rate cuts has diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 50%, putting pressure on gold prices [2][3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by adjustments in interest rate expectations, increases the purchasing cost of gold for international buyers, adding further pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key support level around $4000 has become crucial, coinciding with the lower boundary of an expanding wedge pattern, indicating technical buying interest remains [6] - If the wedge pattern holds, gold may consolidate in this area before attempting another upward move, with mid-term resistance at approximately $4150 [6] - The interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty and technical pressures keeps gold in a state of volatility, with future movements dependent on upcoming data and policy signals [6]

中金发布2026年展望称，从历史比较的角度看，本轮黄金牛市可能尚未结束。本轮黄金牛市的涨幅与持 续时间，仍低于上世纪70年代和2000年代两轮主要上涨周期。考虑到当前宏观不确定性、全球储备结构 调整的长期性以及美元周期的潜在下行，我们认为黄金牛市尚未进入尾声。除非美联储彻底结束宽松周 期、或美国经济重新进入"通胀下行+增长上行"的强复苏阶段，否则黄金的中期上涨逻辑仍将维持。若 当前趋势延续，不排除金价明年突破5,000美元/盎司的可能。尽管牛市逻辑明确，但黄金确实是当前估 值较贵的大类资产之一，可能增大资产波动，我们建议维持超配黄金，但减少追涨杀跌操作，采取逢低 增配与定投的投资策略，更关注黄金的长期资产配置价值。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, with a decrease of 1.1% to approximately HKD 6.42 billion compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting challenges in the macroeconomic environment and currency fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was approximately HKD 6.42 billion, down from about HKD 6.493 billion in the same period last year, representing a 1.1% decline [1]. - On a constant currency basis, revenue decreased by 2.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment, which contributed to the slight revenue decline [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The CYBEX brand continued to show robust growth in the third quarter, expanding its global market share despite deteriorating consumer sentiment [2]. - Evenflo brand revenue declined primarily due to a drop in the safety seat category, although growth in the stroller category partially offset this decline [2]. - The gb brand experienced a revenue drop mainly from wholesale channels [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The company noted that global demand for its products remained resilient, reinforcing its leadership position [3]. - The company received multiple prestigious awards for product innovation, including three Red Dot Design Awards and two NAPPA Product Innovation Awards [3]. - The outlook for the remainder of the year indicates continued macroeconomic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and international tensions [3].

【11月5日Convera亚太区策略师称投资者谨慎情绪受多因素驱动】11月5日，Convera亚太区首席外汇和 宏观策略师Shier Lee Lim透露，由于缺乏单一明确催化因素，投资者的谨慎情绪由多种宏观不确定性共 同驱动。 这些不确定性包括对增长前景的担忧、美国政府正在进行的停摆谈判，以及对关键行业资本 支出的审慎审查。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway reported record cash reserves of $381.67 billion as of the end of Q3 2025, marking a cautious investment approach amid leadership transition as Warren Buffett prepares to step down as CEO [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached $94.972 billion, a 2.13% increase from $92.995 billion in Q3 2024 [2][4]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $30.796 billion, up 17.31% from $26.251 billion in the same quarter last year [2][4]. - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was $13.485 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 33.65% compared to $10.090 billion in Q3 2024 [4][5]. - For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue was $277.212 billion, with net profit amounting to $47.769 billion [2][4]. Investment Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway has not repurchased any shares for nine consecutive months and has continued to sell stocks, recording $10.4 billion in taxable gains [3][5]. - The company’s investment strategy appears cautious, focusing on finding new opportunities in the current market environment [3][5]. Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett will hand over the CEO position to Greg Abel by the end of 2025, marking a significant leadership change for the company [1][8]. - Buffett will no longer write the annual shareholder letter, a role that will be taken over by Abel [1][11]. Analyst Ratings - Berkshire Hathaway recently received a rare "sell" rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, reflecting concerns over its earnings outlook and the upcoming leadership transition [7][8]. - The downgrade was attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and the unique succession risks associated with Buffett's departure [8][10].

Core Insights - The anticipated rebound in the crypto market has not occurred, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) facing pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][6] - Recent policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have created a cautious environment, delaying expectations for global monetary easing [2][4] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve's October rate cut of 0.25% was its second easing this year, but the outlook for future cuts was reduced from four to two by 2026, indicating a "higher for longer" interest rate environment [3][4] - The Bank of Japan maintained steady rates but expressed concerns over global inflation and U.S. trade policies, prioritizing inflation control over growth [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's remarks, the crypto market experienced significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping below $107,000 and Ethereum falling into the $3,600 range, resulting in over $700 million in liquidations across major exchanges [5][6] - The crypto market's stagnation followed a mid-October flash crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions, with altcoins plummeting up to 60% [7] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The renewed hawkish stance from central banks has led to increased caution among investors, pushing many traders to the sidelines as ETF inflows decreased by nearly $1 billion [7][8] - As November approaches, the crypto market remains in a holding pattern due to mixed signals from central banks and resurfacing global trade tensions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has received a rare "sell" rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods due to concerns over its earnings outlook and macroeconomic risks, particularly with Buffett set to step down as CEO [2][3]. Group 1: Rating Changes - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Berkshire's Class A shares from "market perform" to "underperform," citing multiple factors moving in an unfavorable direction for the company [2][3]. - This downgrade is the only "sell" rating among six analysts who continuously cover Berkshire [3]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Berkshire announced that Vice Chairman Greg Abel will succeed Buffett as CEO on January 1, 2024, while Buffett will remain as Chairman [3]. - The transition raises concerns about succession risks and the potential impact on investor confidence as Buffett gradually steps back from daily management [8]. Group 3: Business Performance and Challenges - Berkshire's Class B shares fell by 0.82% on a recent Monday, with a year-to-date increase of only 7.8%, compared to a 16% rise in the S&P 500 index [5]. - Analysts predict that various business segments, including GEICO, Berkshire Reinsurance Group, Berkshire Energy, and BNSF Railway, may face ongoing or emerging profitability challenges [8]. - Specific concerns include the peak of GEICO's underwriting profit margins, declining property catastrophe reinsurance rates, decreasing short-term interest rates, and pressures from tariffs on railway transport [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market is running strongly, but there are still macro uncertainties. The sanctions on Russia have led to concerns about supply decline, driving up oil prices and the energy sector. The fuel oil market shows a pattern where high-sulfur is stronger than low-sulfur [1][2] - The impact of sanctions on high-sulfur fuel oil is more significant, but the decline in Russian supply is difficult to quantify. If the actual impact on supply is not high, the upward drive for high-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Low-sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals and abundant spot supplies, but the restart of Dangote's RFCC device is expected to relieve local supply pressure [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.21% at 3,267 yuan/ton [2] - Sanctions on Russia have led to concerns about supply decline, driving up oil prices and the energy sector. The fuel oil market is running strongly, but caution is needed due to important macro events [2] - The fuel oil market shows a pattern where high-sulfur is stronger than low-sulfur. The impact of sanctions on high-sulfur fuel oil is more significant, but the decline in Russian supply is difficult to quantify. The demand for fuel oil in the Middle East is expected to decline, and Saudi exports may increase after refinery maintenance. If the actual impact on supply is not high, the upward drive for high-sulfur fuel oil is limited [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals, weak downstream marine fuel demand, and abundant spot supplies. The restart of Dangote's RFCC device is expected to relieve local supply pressure [2] Strategy - High-sulfur: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares from "in line with the market" to "underperform," citing multiple factors moving in the wrong direction [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Analyst Ratings - The downgrade marks the only "sell" rating among six analysts covering the company tracked by Bloomberg [1] Concerns - Analyst Meyer Shields expressed concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty and succession risk, indicating that these factors contribute to the stock's potential underperformance [1] - The report highlights the emergence and/or persistence of earnings pressure as a significant factor affecting the stock's outlook [1]