朋友们，今天全球的大宗商品市场，可以说是"三箭齐发"，热闹非凡。一边是地缘政治搅动原油，一边 是"铜博士"飙出历史新高，另一边黄金白银也在闪闪发光。这市场到底在讲述一个什么样的故事？我是 帮主郑重，咱们一起剥开这些价格波动的表层，看看里面的核心逻辑。 我们先看看这"三支箭"。第一支箭，射向原油。价格重新回到每桶58美元上方，直接的导火索大家都知 道，就是委内瑞拉的政局突变。美军带走马杜罗总统，美国表态要"管理"并寻求对委内瑞拉石油的"完 全准入"。这给本已复杂的全球能源供给地图，又添上了一笔地缘政治的风险溢价。虽然委内瑞拉目前 的产量对全球来说占比不大，但这件事的象征意义和对未来格局的潜在影响，让交易员不得不重新掂 量。 就在市场为原油忐忑的时候，第二支箭，也是今天最耀眼的一支，射向了铜。伦敦期铜价格历史上首次 突破了每吨13000美元的大关，自11月以来涨幅已达20%。这背后，不仅仅是智利某个铜矿罢工的短期 刺激，更核心的驱动力有两个：一是市场对美国未来经济复苏、特别是制造业和基建需求的强烈预期， 导致流向美国的货源激增；二是大量的投机资金在持续涌入，他们判断价格远未见顶，这种一致性的看 多情绪形成了强大的 ...

格隆汇1月5日｜美国股市在2026年的第一个完整交易周迎来了开门红，科技股与能源股领涨。尽管周末 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被罢免，但交易员并未表现出对地缘政治风险的担忧。CIBC资本市场的股票与投 资组合策略主管Christopher Harvey认为，由于委内瑞拉经济总量有限且处于孤立状态，逮捕马杜罗对美 国股市的溢出影响微乎其微。但他同时指出，近期事件预示着2026年将面临更大的宏观不确定性。这支 持了其团队关于今年上半年会出现"避险情绪"的预期，他敦促客户将投资组合向高品质或低波动性的股 票倾斜。投资者正在等待未来几天的一系列宏观数据，其中以周五的12月非农就业报告最为关键。 ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 王维芒 从业资格编号：Z0000148 邮箱：Wangwm@zhqh.com.cn 相关报告： 中辉期货-2025年宏观金银展 望—寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上 归 中辉期货-2024年宏观经济展 望-筚路蓝缕启山林,栉风沐 雨砥砺行 中辉期货-2023年下半年黄金 展望-山光正西落，池月渐东 上- 2026年金银展望 商品年报 黄金中流砥柱，白银乘风而起 摘要： 2026年，黄金与白银市场预计将在宏观金融秩序变革与微观供需结构紧张 的共同驱动下延续强势格局，但二者逻辑路径显著分化。 黄金的核心叙事围绕"去美元化"深化与信用资产重估展开。 美元在全球官方储备占比已降至56.3%的历史低位，而黄金储备占比突破 30%，各国央行——尤其是新兴市场央行——持续购金以对冲美元风险与地缘不 确定性，形成结构性买盘。同时，美联储引领的全球降息周期将持续压低实际 利率，降低黄金持有成本；美国债务规模膨胀与财政扩张政策则侵蚀主权货币 信用，强化黄金的终极避险属性。供需层 ...

面对高波动环境，Stifel建议战术性调整持股结构，以医疗保健、必需消费品、黄金等防御性资产对冲 科技成长股风险，其产业矩阵显示，当前经济成长与通膨环境更利好防御板块。 报告勾勒出两种极端情境：若周期性产业收益回暖，标普500成分股EPS有望增长13%，配合本益比温 和收缩，指数有望触及7500点高点(+9%)，但此乐观场景必须以科技资本支出顺利传导至实体经济为前 提，目前看仍存疑。看空情境则直指消费引擎失速风险，占美国GDP 68%的个人消费若出现萎缩，AI 投资热潮将无法抵销其冲击，加上失业率潜在跳升可能，衰退机率25%对应的指数底部将下探6500点 (-5%)。 格隆汇12月29日｜Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister警告称，2026年美股将深陷宏观不确定性漩涡， 预计标普500指数将在6500至7500点区间宽幅震荡。这项预判源自于对美国经济深层矛盾的拆解，在消 费韧性隐忧、政策效力衰减与科技股资本支出透支三重压力下，市场脆弱性显著攀升。 ...

今天上午，市场给了我们一个久违的"大个子"阳线，上证指数一口气涨了0.64%，重新站回了3900点。 关键是，成交量明显放大了，半天就干了将近1.2万亿，比昨天同时段多了近千亿。这个"量价齐升"的 场面，算是给连日的震荡送来了一点暖意。 盘面上，热闹得很，但主线似乎又在玩"捉迷藏"。最吸睛的无疑是海南板块，可以说是全线爆发，掀起 涨停潮。这背后，除了区域政策的长期期待，更像是在当前缺乏绝对主线的环境下，资金对确定性主题 的一次集中拥抱。同时，存储芯片和贵金属这两个老朋友也表现活跃，一个代表着科技自主的产业趋 势，另一个则始终是宏观不确定性下的"压舱石"。 但是，帮主也要给大家提个醒。热闹的另一面，是快速的轮动和分化。医药商业、影视院线等板块明显 调整，这说明市场的风险偏好并没有全面回升，资金只是在几个有限的、逻辑相对硬的筐里跳来跳去。 这种格局下，指数往上走一步，都显得比较犹豫。 所以，对于下午的行情，我的观点很明确：谨慎乐观，切忌追高。 上午的放量上涨是个积极信号，确 认了3900点下方有一定的承接力。但如果午后成交量不能持续温和放大，甚至出现萎缩，那么指数很可 能会在当前位置附近震荡整固。 朋友们中午好， ...

Core Viewpoint - Lowe's has shown positive performance in its recent earnings report, with growth in both revenue and earnings, and is positioned for future expansion despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Lowe's reported adjusted earnings of $3.06 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.97, marking a 5.9% increase from $2.89 per share in the same period last year [4]. - Net sales reached $20,813 million, meeting consensus estimates and showing a slight increase from $20,170 million the previous year, driven by a 0.4% rise in comparable sales and significant growth in online sales (11.4%) and home services [5]. - The gross margin expanded to 34.2%, up 50 basis points year-over-year, while SG&A expenses increased to 20% of sales, leading to a decrease in operating income to $2,481 million from $2,536 million in the prior year [6]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) is expected to enhance Lowe's reach in the Pro segment, contributing to long-term sales and profit improvement [3]. - Lowe's updated its full-year sales outlook to $86 billion, up from a previous range of $84.5-$85.5 billion, while projecting flat comparable sales and a slight decrease in adjusted operating margin expectations [9][10]. Financial Health - As of the end of the quarter, Lowe's had cash and cash equivalents of $621 million and long-term debt of $37,498 million, with a shareholders' deficit of $10,382 million [7]. - Operating cash flow for the nine months ended October 31 totaled $8,297 million, with $8.8 billion allocated for the FBM acquisition and $673 million paid in dividends during the quarter [7]. Market Position and Outlook - Lowe's has experienced a downward trend in estimates revision, with a consensus estimate shift of -5.91% [11]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [13]. - In comparison, Home Depot, a competitor in the same industry, reported revenues of $41.35 billion with a year-over-year change of +2.8%, highlighting competitive dynamics within the retail home furnishings sector [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Techtronic Industries (00669) is experiencing a nearly 4% increase in stock price, leading the blue-chip stocks, with a current price of HKD 95.4 and a trading volume of HKD 433 million [1] - Citigroup has initiated a 30-day positive catalyst observation for Techtronic Industries, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times by the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong online sales performance during Thanksgiving and Black Friday [1] - The strong online shopping data aligns with management's previous guidance, indicating that sales data for Milwaukee and Ryobi brands have remained robust over the past few months [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan acknowledges the rapid changes in U.S. interest rate expectations and the weak short-term consumer data amid macro uncertainties, yet maintains a positive stance on Techtronic Industries due to several positive driving factors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Techtronic Industries (00669) is experiencing a nearly 4% increase in stock price, leading the blue-chip stocks, with a current price of HKD 95.4 and a trading volume of HKD 433 million [1] - Citigroup has initiated a 30-day positive catalyst observation for Techtronic Industries, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times by the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong online sales performance during Thanksgiving and Black Friday [1] - The sales data for Techtronic's Milwaukee and Ryobi brands have remained robust, aligning with management's earlier guidance, indicating strong consumer demand [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan acknowledges the rapid changes in U.S. interest rate expectations and the weak short-term consumer data amid macro uncertainties, yet maintains a positive outlook on Techtronic Industries due to several favorable driving factors [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **financial markets**, and **real estate sector**. Core Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The main logic of the domestic economy is centered on **technological self-reliance** amidst global uncertainties, leading to a stable premium in overall expectations, with the equity market performing well [1][3] - Future interest rates are expected to hit new lows, with government bonds showing a strong oscillation, preparing for year-end allocation [1][5] - Economic data for October indicates a trend of "cold economy, warm prices," influenced by statistical base effects and actions against overcapacity [1][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market entered a downward cycle starting July 2025, with a significant reduction in land acquisition by developers, leading to a 27% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue [1][13][14] - The decline in land revenue directly impacts local government finances, as over 90% of land sale income belongs to local budgets [1][14][16] Taxation and Fiscal Policy - Individual income tax saw a remarkable 25% month-on-month increase in October 2025, attributed to strengthened tax collection measures and new regulations on internet platform tax reporting [1][15] - Local government fiscal spending is under pressure due to deteriorating land finance, affecting essential public services [1][16][17] Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - Recent market volatility is linked to external factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [2][3] - The domestic market remains stable, supported by insurance funds and a focus on maintaining net asset values [3][4][21] - Investment strategies should prioritize dividend-related sectors and consider opportunities in globally competitive niche industry leaders [1][23] Future Outlook - The anticipated decline in bank certificate of deposit (CD) rates to around 1.5% could lead to a breakthrough in 10-year government bond yields [5][8] - The consumer sector, particularly service consumption and durable goods, is expected to receive more policy support in the future [18][19] - The core contradiction in the real estate market is the imbalance between mortgage rates and rental yields, which may prompt policy adjustments such as lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of the October economic data reflects a broader trend of weakening, with fixed asset investment and consumption facing significant challenges [11][12] - The potential for more consumption subsidy policies, especially in the context of trade-in programs, is being explored at both local and national levels [19] - The stock market's performance is expected to stabilize around 4,000 points, with a potential rise to over 4,500 points next year [22]

Group 1 - Gold (XAU/USD) shows initial signs of strength but quickly loses momentum as market sentiment shifts, influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - The expectation for immediate interest rate cuts has diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 50%, putting pressure on gold prices [2][3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by adjustments in interest rate expectations, increases the purchasing cost of gold for international buyers, adding further pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key support level around $4000 has become crucial, coinciding with the lower boundary of an expanding wedge pattern, indicating technical buying interest remains [6] - If the wedge pattern holds, gold may consolidate in this area before attempting another upward move, with mid-term resistance at approximately $4150 [6] - The interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty and technical pressures keeps gold in a state of volatility, with future movements dependent on upcoming data and policy signals [6]