本文作者：钱先生/13621911373 ——The End—— 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 。 本公众号所发表内容注明来源的，版权归原出处所有（无法查证版权的或未注明出处 的均来源于网络搜集），如有侵权请及时联系删除。转载内容只以信息传播为目的，仅供参考，不代表本号认 同其观点和立场。内容的真实性、准确性和合法性由原作者负责。 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库统计， 2025年8月份国内碳酸锂总需求量达到10.2万吨，环比增长7.49%，再 创历史新高。 虽然目前碳酸锂库存仍在14万吨之上，但近半年来可用天数持续下降，价格弹性随之增 强。 从具体需求看， 磷酸铁锂对碳酸锂需求环比增幅达到 8%，储能方面拉动明显，2026年储能需求 增幅保守估计40%-50%；三元材料受下游补库带动，8月份对碳酸锂需求环比增幅高达12%； 钴酸锂随着3C数码进入"金九银十"旺季，对碳酸锂需求环比增幅也达到7%左右，有迹象表面， 数码采用锰酸锂的情况也在逐渐增多。 不过，从当前市场氛围来看，近期仓单增长较快，虚实盘比基本又回到了低位，如果没有一些爆炸性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by a subdued atmosphere, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward trend in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Overview - Global lithium resource capacity is projected to reach 1.9-1.95 million tons (LCE equivalent) in 2025, with actual production around 1.6-1.65 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons [3]. - Domestic lithium carbonate monthly demand increased to 88,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, indicating a robust demand despite external tariff disruptions [4]. - The production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and 44% [3]. Price Trends and Cost Analysis - The average price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trajectory, with the decline rate slowing down as inventory levels decrease [4]. - Current lithium carbonate prices are near the breakeven point, prompting some lithium salt manufacturers to limit production since May, which has temporarily slowed the market's downward trend [8]. - If lithium carbonate prices drop to 50,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding lithium resource supply capacity would be around 1.2 million tons, which may not meet the demand even with existing inventories [8][10]. Market Disruptions and Future Outlook - Potential disruptions in the lithium market include environmental and geopolitical constraints affecting projects in Eastern Europe, Bolivia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The production enthusiasm for new lithium salt projects in Argentina may remain below expectations due to high profit forecasts [15]. - The acceleration of profit localization in Zimbabwe could undermine the cost advantages of African lithium mines [16]. - The market may continue to face pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but prices approaching 55,000 yuan may lead some upstream mining companies to reconsider their production strategies [18].