碳酸锂成本与价格
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第一创业晨会纪要-20251111
First Capital Securities· 2025-11-11 06:02
Macroeconomic Analysis - In October, China's CPI year-on-year was 0.2%, exceeding expectations of -0.1% and up from -0.3% in September. Core CPI rose to 1.2%, the highest since October 2023, from 1.0% in the previous month [4] - October's PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of recovery, with expectations at -2.3% [5] Industry Insights - The fund industry is seeing regulatory changes with the draft guidelines for theme investment funds, which may lead to a reallocation of investments towards underperforming sectors like chemicals and consumer goods [8] - TSMC reported October revenue of NT$367.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, although it is the lowest growth rate since February 2024. The demand for AI chips remains strong, with expected Q4 revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 35% [8] Advanced Manufacturing - The cost pressures for lithium carbonate production are increasing due to a required payment of 177 million yuan for mining rights and a rise in resource tax rates. This could lead to a cost increase of 1,500 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate [11] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Anjuke Foods and Angel Yeast experiencing significant sales growth. The restaurant supply chain is also improving, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector [13] - The Hainan duty-free market is rebounding strongly, with sales in the first week of November up 34.86% year-on-year, driven by new policies that expand product categories and customer eligibility [14]